Gulfstream 2012-13

Weekend Review

March 16 - 17

A FUN St. Patrick's Day At The Races

It was not the best weekend of handicapping to be sure.  Kim and I had made plans to go out to Gulfstream together on Sunday, St. Patrick's Day so I handicapped just Gulfstream Park and had two other selections in graded stakes at Aqueduct and Oaklawn.  I won the very first race on my selection sheet when Cottontail came home a winner at the Gulfstream.  But then that turned out to be it as I ran SECOND in four of the other seven races and third in one other one.  Not a good day with results, but my horses were competitive at least!  I spent a good deal of time handicapping for Sunday, but tried to be very selective with my picks outside of Gulfstream as I didn't want to spend my day bouncing from one race track to another in simulcast land while Kim sat all alone in the grandstand.  So as it turned out I had nine picks in eleven races at Gulfstream and then twelve picks at the other four tracks.  Because I knew Kim wouldn't want to spend the day at the races I suggested we go out for the opener, at 1 pm.  I had picks in the first five races then was passing on races six and seven, so we could have a mid-day lunch-dinner at 3 pm and then come home and I could watch the rest of the races on HRTV via the DVR.  She liked this plan because it meant we were only going to be "at the races" for two hours.  

In the opener I liked Bustle who was going to be a price and had encountered a lot of trouble in his last against several of these.  The only thing I did not factor in was that Joel Rosario took over on one of the other horses.  He put that one on the lead and no one challenged him.  I was a clear second at 5/1 and he won the race at better that 4/1 leading to a $50 exacta, but of course I only played to win and ran second :(  My "other track" races were spaced nicely in that in between the first five races at Gulfstream I had one bet at another race so I wasn't bored sitting there for a long time between races, and Kim was never left alone for long.  I ran second, again at Aqueduct after leading from gate to final fifty yards.  Sigh.... then at Gulfstream I was a dismal last of nine; inside for an added money bet at Tampa on a Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno runner - they are winning at a 40% clip together there!  Awesome Mich went off at even money, no surprise, but was a tiring fifth - BIG surprise!  WOW.  In the third at Gulfstream I had the the 8/5 favorite and as they got in the gate for the turf sprint I said to Kim, I think I have a good chance here, but if the "Banzai" horse wires the field I will be so mad.  "Why?" she asked.  Because he's 20/1 and he's my third pick AND is listed as the "Upset of the Day" in the program.  Yes, you guessed it - in fact you may have guessed both parts of it.......I ran second AGAIN, and the winner was, yes, the "Banzai" runner.  As I headed downstairs to watch the Aqueduct race the announcement came that there was a Steward's Inquiry regarding the top two finishers.  I watched the replay, which they showed over and over and over and over again - a pretty good sign of a DQ that was coming.  The Banzi runner shifted out about 10 lengths as they turned for home as my pick, Bajan Rhythm was making his move.  While he didn't have to check sharply, he did have to briefly take up and change course to run inside.....then Banzai dove back inside and I had to weave back outside.  Either of the two incidents would not have been enough I thought, but making me check and alter course twice.....as one guy watching the replay in back of me said, "you can't ride like that!"  I thought for sure I was going to have my first winner of the day........"Ladies and Gentlemen, the stewards cannot find sufficient evidence to make a change, the result stands official."  Wow......again!  

At Aqueduct my horse was a first-time-starter and typically they don't like to be pinned on the rail.  Broke from the rail and could never get off the rail.....5th.  Then FINALLY a winner!  In the 4th at Gulfstream my selection was Disposable Pleasure.  She'd broken her maiden at first asking and then seen nothing but graded stakes.  She had not won, but had run competitively.  Today trainer Todd Pletcher dropped her into allowance company and she completely outclassed her rivals on paper.  And on the track!  WHOOO HOOOO!  My triple investment yielded over $30!  Now we're talking!  

I knew that my next pick was a make-or-break bet.  There was an obvious short-priced favorite who SHOULD wire the field.  But my pick, The Cat's Mine, was a new acquisition for a small barn who had sent out two runners last week who were making their first start for this new outfit....and they both won at 57/1 and 13/1!  UH OH!  I tripled the bet and got 6/1 at post time.  Broke slowly and wasn't even in the screen until the 2/5 favorite was galloping away freely inside the 16th pole.....5th.  Sigh..... The fifth was our final race to watch live before heading over the the Yardhouse restaurant which overlooks the paddock at Gulfstream for our meal.  I like Bill Mott's Geisha Gal on the turf.  She'd fired bullet works for today's return to the races and if she ran her race she looked like a pretty solid pick.  She exploded at the top of the lane and drew off easily.  My double investment got back nearly $20 and again I was in-and-around breaking even as we headed out to eat and then home.  

We had a really good meal, it's always good there, and then headed home.  Kim took a nap so I watched the replays.  Disappointing to say the least at the other tracks.  Tampa, the Fair Grounds, and then the early double from Santa Anita my pick went off as the favorite because they were the most likely winner.  4th, 4th, then 2nd in the SA opener and finally I was a disappointing 3rd at even money in the second at Santa Anita with a horse who was a standout at even money.  Well, that's why it's horseracing!  I followed an old adage at the races for my next win, which was at Aqueduct.  This happens all the time, especially in the summer at Calder where so often the same horses run against each other over and over again.  The angle is to find the horse who has not run with this crowd before.  Of the eight sprinters lined up at Aqueduct in their 8th race seven of them had either lost to the favorite (some more than once) or had lost to a horse (or two) who had lost to the favorite.  But one of the fillies, Sweet Sway had not seen any of them.  Unfortunately the crowd saw the same thing and bet her down to 6/5.  She proved best - though the unbeaten filly who'd had her way with the others was closing fast on the rail to be 2nd best......beating all the others, again!  

I lost with a Todd Pletcher maiden 3-year-old and then with three price horses.  The most disappointing loss came in the Gulfstream feature, the Grade 2 Inside Information.  The favorite, and my "best" of the day was Golden Mystery.  The most disappointing thing was NOT that she was a dismal fifth, but that I bet her.  I had told Kim that in both of her first two starts here - the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint and the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie - I had been all against her; thought she was hugely overrated.  But she won both of them motored down, under wraps and by open daylight.  Her trainer, Marty Wolfson, was quoted that she'd been training great and today's seven furlongs was her best distance AND that they were pointing to the Grade 1 Humana Distaff on Derby Day at Churchill Downs at this distance after today's race.  I should have stuck with my initial opinion and looked for an upsetter.  The winner was my third choice and went off at 6/1.  All I could do was shake my head.  But I salvaged a nice portion of my late bets by winning both of the last two selections.  I tripled the bet on another Pletcher turf-running 3-year-old maiden.  More Hundred Acres looked much the best on paper.  But into the far turn he was a distant fifth and looked out of it.  But then as they turned for home it was like jockey Johnny Velazquez shifted into overdrive and within a sixteenth of a mile she had inhaled the leaders and was long gone.  Impressive late kick!  I will cash for for close to $40 when I head back out to Gulfstream with my winning tickets.  

And in my final pick it was Brad Free's "Best" at Santa Anita.  The HRTV analysts debated back and forth about Footbridge.  The one was a big-time doubter.  The other said that Footbridge would become one of the stars of the racing world by the end of the year.  The result was a little of both.  On the far turn he surged apparently in hand and looked like he would run by the field.  But once he got clear of the leaders he seemed to stall and ran evenly to the wire, but held on courageously to win.  

So for the day I cashed on five races, but it was far below my 30% average.  I will probably head out once or twice during the week, but there are not any big stakes races this upcoming weekend and our daughter Julie will be visiting, so I'll take the weekend off.  But it's less than two weeks until the Florida Derby.....very excited!