Gulfstream 2012-13

A VERY Good Day At The Races

Thursday March 7

I had six betting selections today, including three of the first four races so I decided to head on out to Gulfstream for the first part of the afternoon.  It was a crisp day with beautiful blue skies and the highs barely got to 70 degrees, so I enjoyed wearing my jacket to ward off the always present Gulfstream breezes on the grandstand side.  My first selection was in the opener where I knew Divine Child would be the favorite, but as I walked through the breezeway I was surprised she was being hammered to 1-9 in the early betting.  Then I noted that out of the seven horse field there were three scratches.  Checked my selection sheet and the only two runners I thought had a legitimate chance to take down the favorite - owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey, trained by Michael Maker, ridden by Joel Rosario....a very lethal combination all meet long - had both been scratched.  I doubled the bet to compensate and hoped there would be a some action from the "value players" who would try to beat the obvious winner.  And there was, her price floated up to 3/5 which was a huge overlay.  She broke on top and just pranced around the track opening up by double digits under a firm hold through the lane!  WHOOO HOOOO!  

I had to take a photo in the winner's circle as I've cashed SOOO many winners with this owner-trainer-jockey combination.  I passed the second, so I took advantage of the free time to finish my handicapping for Saturday's card.  I had been such a clever fellow by printing off the last four races so I could do this at the races in between races.  

In the third I had labeled the race my "UPSET of the DAY" when I put Workin For Hops on top who was listed at 8/1 in the program.  It was a 8 1/2 furlong turf event for older runners and Workin For Hops had earned a half million dollars on the grass, and was a mutliple stakes winner.  BUT....he had not won in almost two years.  Still, today he went first time for trainer Chris Block and he had good workouts.  I also thought he looked to either be loose on the lead or pressing an easy pace.  If he was even close to the horse he used to be, he was a very likely winner.  I was encouraged that Gulfstream Handicapper Ron Nicoletti also put him on top....but I was disappointed that his odds were depressed down to 2-1 through the betting.  Luckily when they left the gate he had floated up to 5/2 and I felt better.  I have to also add that not only did I double the bet on Workin For Hops, but I went AGAINST a Todd Pletcher horse!  Just as I expected, Workin For Hops went right to the front and was L-O-N-G gone.....easy, peasy, pie!  Got back nearly $40!  YEEESSSSSS!  

In the next it was one of my two "best" of the day.  In her debut Calistoga had gone out for Bill Mott and crushed her maiden special rivals earning a huge 97 Beyer.  With horses like this you always have to ask yourself, do they legitimately have talent or will they bounce off the big number debut.  I was convinced she would move into stakes company next time out, and the crowd bet her accordingly.  She was 1/9 for the longest time, briefly floated to 2/5 which I thought was higher than she ought to be, but settled at 1/5.  And she ran like a 1/5 runner.....walked with it, and I'm 3-for-3!  

I made my bets for the last three races and headed for home - delighted with the way the afternoon was going.  In the 7th I was 3rd at 7/2 and in the 9th I was a fast-closing 2nd at 7/2, but in between was the 8th....my "BET OF THE DAY."  My pick in the 1 3/8th mile allowance test was #1 Aigue Marine.  She had earned a 104 Timeform number in her final European start, shipped to the US and ran 3rd in the Grade 3 Long Island, beaten less than a length.  Using the standard -14 conversion for Timeform to Beyer, that meant she had basically run her race here.  And those two numbers were clearly superior to all the LIFETIME best figures earned by her rivals today.  I was all in, prime-time.  She broke cleanly, sat just off the leader, then on the turn glided to the lead and romped home by daylight....my fourth win of the day!  

For the day I finished a super 4-for-6 with a second and a third, and profited over $40 for the day!  A great start to the week.  And how ironic I thought after the day's races were concluded.  I had just been telling Kim after Sunday's races that it is so very hard to win at Gulfstream, and that I needed to pick up my win percentages locally!