Wednesday March 13
Best Bet - And Smart Move By Me - Saves The Day
The weather was glorious and with the end of the meet in sight I told myself I had better take advantage of being able to go to Gulfstream and headed out for a sequence of five races where I had a bet. Like last week the first thing I took care of was cashing big tickets from Saturday and I added over $100 to my bankroll. In my first selection of the day I had the 5/2 second choice with Joel Rosario on board. He was running late, but with the short stretch of the alternate finish line in 8 1/2 furlong races she ran out of room - 2nd. I doubled the bet on another Rosario runner who went off at a good price of 5/1, and was the choice of both the Gulfstream in-house, on-air analysts. But she was an even fifth....the only runner of the day to not run well. Ironically I wrote this about my third choice: "I would be all over 8-Geometry-Under normal circumstances - lightly raced, good tactical speed, just missed at this level last out and was well clear of the show horse - but for one thing....trainer numbers: 0-for-17 at the meet. YIKES!" You guessed it, won by daylight at a big 6/1....sigh....... In the 6th I had yet another Rosario-ridden runner in Prince of Speed. A solid 9/2 price and he surged to the lead with the short stretch run, only to be nailed by a stretch runner. Figures - I have the stretch runner, I don't get there.....I have the leader, I'm nailed by the late runner. Second again - interesting side note on the winner. He was 12/1 in the program and marooned in the outside post with the short run to the first turn. But he was bet all the way down to 5/2 and won in spite of the draw.
The 7th was my "best" of the day where I planned to up the bet on Code of Conduct. The race was nine furlongs on the turf for non-winners of three lifetime. One of my favorite angles, and I nearly always restrict my bets in conditioned claimers like this to this angle - is to find the one runner who's never run for a conditioned tag....even better if it's their first time for a tag. Both angles fit Code of Conduct. Through the summer he'd put up big efforts against allowance company and a run like that would make him an easy winner. And I thought you could make real excuses for his last three that appeared to darken his form. Three back he was fifth beaten over ten lengths but had the comment "stumbled badly" - an obvious excuse. Two back he was at the Fair Grounds when they had all the rain and the turf event was moved to the main track - an obvious toss. In his last the comment read "bumped at the break." If you looked at his running line carefully you could see that was rushed to press the leaders and when he tired you could excuse it on the break comment alone, but there was a second comment "wide both turns." Obvious that after rushing up and racing wide he'd tired against better. The drop down in class should wake him up. When I looked at the board he was being very well bet. I decided that the betting supported my selection and that I had a far better chance than I had reflected in my originally planned investment. So I went "prime time" and put $20 to win. Good for me after going winless on the day to this point that I had that kind of confidence still in my handicapping! As they turned for home jockey John Velazquez gave him the "GO" signal and he was gone. WHOO HOO! I cashed for $40 and was near even on the day....with a single winner.
In the last race I faced a dilemma - a Todd Pletcher entry in a 3yo race, seems obvious, but wait....NEITHER of his go-to riders is on board and they are both here today. Hmmmm. They went off at 2/1 and one ran third. Should have passed, but it was ok - I enjoyed the day and nearly broke even. From the ten races on the day I had two other winners listed on top, 30% on the day (one at $8 one at $7+) and I also had three other winners listed in my top three! Tomorrow is supposed to be a big cooler, but I have selections in the first four races so I'll go out again and enjoy being outside :)
No comments:
Post a Comment