Gulfstream 2012-13

ANOTHER Todd Pletcher 3-year-old Star!

Friday March 15

I was only able to pick two winners on Friday's card, but my "BEST" of the Day turned out to truly be the "BEST" of the day.  I didn't even hit the board in my first four selections, and really was never even in the race despite being one of the betting choices in all four.  But I finally got into the winner's circle in the 7th when Todd Pletcher's Zaikov ran away with the Maiden Special test for sophomores.  Two story lines make for interesting telling with this one.....the first is my continued frustration with the linemaker for the Daily Racing Form.  When I handicap more than a day in advance of the races using the past performances online, the odds do not appear with the runners.  But the DRF provides what are termed "Graded Entries" which is like a program.  Two years ago when I handicapped every day at Saratoga I began to notice just how far off these odds were.  The first thing I found odd was that in every race that had "Also Eligible" horses they are ALWAYS listed as the favorites.  And the second thing I noticed is that how often the obvious contenders are listed at double-digit odds.  The most obvious that summer, and now at Gulfstream is with Todd Pletcher 2-year-olds at Saratoga and 3-year-olds here at Gulfstream.  No matter if you are setting the line on what you think the crowd will bet or on who you think will win....either way it's obvious Pletcher horses, especially first-timers, are going to be well bet with an excellent chance to win.  And here's the morning line for Zaikov..... 

 Well, like most Pletcher runners he was ready to roll.  And he was ULTRA-impressive, another star in the making.  And he was my "BEST of the Day!"  Note the closing odds, duh.  

I missed in my next when third with another Todd Pletcher runner, but this one did NOT deserve to be a favorite, Unitarian had already failed to produce twice on the turf here, so one more chance.....nope.  But then I scored again in the final race when Dance Wild was MUCH the best.  I selected her because she was the only runner with any kind of chance to believe she could win.  You could obviously toss the first two on the turf.  The three dirt tries were two good thirds and a close-up fourth.  And in the last she went two turns as the 8/5 favorite, leading through six furlongs before tiring.  But she held third and was SIX clear of the fourth place.  Today she went right to the front and just cantered by daylight.  I couldn't believe I did not have more money on her......but a win's a win!  I'll play the races online Saturday, it's not a very good card, and then Sunday Kim and I will enjoy St. Patrick's Day at the races.