Gulfstream 2012-13

A Three-Bagger On Thursday!

March 14

The day turned profitable when I made two investment decisions that resulted in BIG WINS!  Whooo Hoooo!  After the nightmarish trip home on Wednesday where the normally 35-40 minute drive turned into an hour and 45 minutes I had considered not driving back down to Gulfstream.  But the weather was too tempting and I knew I had four investments to start the day and then I'd be on the road much earlier, so off I went.  I actually had a jacket on when I left (the temp was 69), but when I arrived it was sunny and warm (75 degrees) so I tossed the jacket back in the car!  In the opener I liked Miss Tapit who promised to NOT be the favorite.  Much like yesterday's first bet I liked Why Katherine but could not get past the trainer's 1-for-24 mark.  Drew off as much the best at 5/2 while I was a distant third.  In between races I was looking online at racing news and decided to check who Dave Liftin liked at Aqueduct on the day.  The first thing that caught my eye was that a multiple stakes winner, Caixa Electronica was the favorite in the third.  What's he doing running on a Thursday I wondered.  So then I read that Liftin said he'd be much the best in here if he was ready, but the "word" was he was battling a quarter crack.  So I went to the entries online to see the post time and then I saw what to me was the key.....slated to ride Caixa Electronica was Gulfstream's leading rider, Javier Castellano - for top trainer Todd Pletcher.  I paused and considered.....would Javier Castellano fly to New York to ride this veteran in an overnight stakes if it was just a tune-up?  I don't think he's been sent out for a warm-up run....he's well meant today!  I added him to my investment list and walked to the window to bet the second at Gulfstream and the Uncle Mo Stakes at Aqueduct.  I looked at the board, and again like yesterday, there was my Michael Maker trained-Ramsey owned-Joel Rosario ridden horse being pounded on the board.  Chango Verdi was my top selection in the second, and he had NOT won last time first off the claim for the Maker-Ramsey team, but it was noteworthy to me that Rosario was NOT on board that day, but WAS today.  With the heavy betting action I doubled my investment, and made Caixa Electronica a "Prime Time" bet.  I headed out to the rail and was smiling the length of the stretch as Chango Verdi won under wraps!  HORRAY!  

 I headed into the paddock and watched the Uncle Mo Stakes from New York as Caixa Electronica left the gate as the odds-on favorite.  He broke a couple steps slowly, but Castellano had him up on the pace by the end of the opening quarter and as they hit the turn he had forged to the lead.  He turned for home narrowly in front and now it was either "go time" and he'd draw off exhibiting his class edge, or he would be in trouble making his first start of the year......no problem, L - O - N - G gone as much the best!  HORRAY squared!  Two big wins in a row!  

In the third I liked On The Key who was coming off a layoff for trainer Bob Hess - a 26% win angle, and again Rosario was riding.  A good price at 5/1, but only second best.  In the 4th it was the prototype Gulfstream race - Maiden Special for 3-year-olds.  Yes, I'm looking for the Todd Pletcher runner.....uh oh - not only is the #1 Ten Items Or Less from Pletcher's stable, but also #3 Western High was from the Pletcher shedrow!  And they are NOT a coupled entry!  Both runners had the Pletcher Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club angles of second start of the meet (47% wins), but the rail runner also had a class drop going from straight maidens to state-bred maidens (47%).  He'd shown sharp early speed in a turf sprint and now moved to the main track.....he looked like the speed to steal it.  But for me the turning point angle was NOT that I had taught at Western High for most of my career :) but that jockey John Velazquez (43% win angle) had ridden BOTH colts last time out and today was on Western High.  As I wrote in my analysis, "I hope Johnny knows what he's doing!"  Right from the gate Ten Items Or Less gunned to the front, but Western High was tracking him about a length and a half off the lead.  But when they hit the turn, Ten Items had opened up by five lengths and left Western High in the dust!  Figures I thought as they turned for home.  But then I could see that the field was closing the gap.....track announcer Larry Colmus called out that "Ten Items Or Less was shortening stride....." and at the furlong marker Western High collared him and then edged clear in the final 200 yards!  Best of all, somehow the crowd had allowed this Pletcher-Velazquez maiden go off at a remarkable 2/1.  I had doubled the bet and collected $30!  I am guaranteed to be a winner on the day!  

I knew better when I made my last two selections, but I thought the trainer angle trumped my reservations.  In both the 6th and the 9th I had Jamie Ness runners in races where the claiming tag was less than 40% --> that is a 47% win angle.  My hesitation had been that instead of one of the leading riders Ness was putting Manny Cruz on board.  He's been a top Calder rider and a year ago was on fire at the prestigious Churchill spring meet.  But down here this winter he was struggling with a 12-for-140, less than 10%.  After filming my video of the Western High win I drove home, and was home in less than 40 minutes, then later watched the replays.  My worst fears were confirmed.....in the 6th Johannesboom was sent off at 3/1, but out of the gate he went to his knees and broke about ten lengths behind the field - can't put all that on Cruz, but there's a reason he's only winning 9% of his races.  And in the 9th where Drunken Love was the clear speed of the turf sprint, Cruz let the rail runner have the lead and stalked him.  Front-runners, as I've often said, do NOT run well if not on the lead.....sure enough, Drunken Love stalked a pace that should have been comfortable for him, but you could tell, he wasn't on the lead, so when they turned for home he had no interest in passing horses.....4th.  Still, for the day I'd cashed 3-of-7 and was in the black for the day :)  A good day to be at the races.