Thursday March 21: A Full Day At The Races
FORTY-TWO PERCENT WINS!
Another fabulous day of handicapping! I enjoyed being out at Gulfstream today so much, the weather was great....I cashed a lot of tickets.....interesting stories.....hit on all my "best" bets of the day. What could be better? This is what I'd envisioned my retirement would be like! But, at the end of the day I did not have a profit. How is that possible when I'm winning over 40% of the time with my prime selections. In a word a photo loss and a dead heat cost me the profit on the day - but as I've often said, I can't control how the crowd bets. If I had gotten the morning line odds on the horses I picked, even the short odds, I would have walked away with more money than I invested. But they overbet the favorites and I did NOT find any price plays today. Still, a great day for sure.
I was in the winner's circle right away with the opener in New York. Veturia looked to be the lone speed and LONG GONE as the short-priced favorite in Aqueduct's opener. In addition she had the meet's top rider. My only mild concern was she was first off the claim. And though this new barn wins at a 20% clip with new acquisitions, I was still leery at short odds. Right the front and never in doubt :) I was a late-running second at Laurel - hardly ever play that track, just don't seem to have a handle on it on a consistent basis. Then I KNEW when I made Navy Guard my pick in the second at Aqueduct she was not the winner. But everything pointed her out. I was very intrigued when Mike Beer, in the DRF analysis for the race pointed out a Kiaran McLaughlin statistic on second time stretch-out maidens. Sure enough that horse wired the field at nearly 7/1.....right there in black and white but I had a better idea - third. I hit my first winner of the winter at Laurel in just my second bet there when New Yawker won the third. I had to smile to myself because the reason I'd doubled the bet on this horse was because there seemed to be a lot of speed in the race and his best efforts came from finishing strongly. Throw in the fact the barn was 44% first off the claim, which he was, and the rider-trainer combination had been winning at a 38% clip. So the gates open and the #4 horse, who was the 4/5 favorite is gunned to the front, and inside of him MY HORSE is gunned to the lead! Seriously? My first thought was that my pick was the first half of an entry and maybe the other half would save me by closing down the race. But after dueling with the favorite through the turn New Yawker opened up and drew off by daylight! WOW - who saw that coming? Apparently I did, because I cashed for nearly $30 :) I was no where to be found at Aqueduct, but then scored again by being a pretty smart cookie (if I do say so myself).
It was the 2nd at the Fair Grounds and we were on the turf. I was against the favorite with #6 Splendiferous. Normally I am not a fan of low level and especially conditioned claiming horses coming right back to win. But when Splendiferous won her last she had posted a new lifetime best speed figure. What was the difference? Leading rider (and the nation's leading rider) Rosie Napravnik had gotten on board! She was back on today and I thought she had a good chance to duplicate the effort. Rosie had her behind horses on the rail and as they entered the long Fair Grounds Stretch she went to move out between horses, but then the ouside presser closed the gap! She shifted in towards the rail where there was room, but the front-runner drifted over! OH NO! She headed outside, but then the leader drifted out leaving the rail open. Right away Roise accelerated Spendiferous through the gap....surged to the front and was up in time! THAT my friends is why she is so good. She makes the move outside she loses ground and doesn't get up in time. My THIRD winner of the day! And at a nice $7.00 payoff, so I cashed for nearly $20! The fourth at Gulfstream was a very, VERY interesting adventure - and a first time story for me at the races. We were on the turf and the horses were loading into the gate when the #9 horse tossed her rider and ran off. The outrider tried to contain her but he was pulled off his horse and the two of them crashed through the rail! Finally they caught the runaway horse, after having to pull the gate off the course. But now there was a delay while the rail was fixed. Then there was further delay as the horse ambulance came to take the injured outrider's pony to the barn area. All set - no, we had to wait for the horse ambulance to come back. Finally after 20 minutes and change it was back, the gate was in place and we began loading.......but then the #3 tossed her rider and was loose! Seriously? :) Another delay until finally, nearly 30 minutes past post time we had the race. And after all that I was second with Flash Force - another Christophe Clement first time starter who failed to deliver - to my second choice with Rosario on board. Wow. Still, makes for an interesting story :) I was back in the winner's circle at Aqueduct in the 6th, my next pick. I doubled the bet on #4-Dynamic Host who was a Grade 3 winner. But here was the rub. That was on the west coast, on the turf. Today she was first off the claim, shipped to the Aqueduct inner dirt course in New York. Still, her class SHOULD tell. But as they turned for home she seemed to be spinning her wheels in fourth with a furlong to go. But in the final 16th she found another gear and surged.....PHOTO FINISH! As I looked at the replay in slow motion I thought I had won, but did not have confidence because of the camera angle.......
I did! I felt fortunate to get 6/5 and so I collected over $20. I missed with a 20/1 longshot at Laurel but appeared to be right back on track at the Fair Grounds with the favorite Moshaagib on the turf. Flying late, in just the same kind of finish. But this time I was fairly confident I'd won. Then the slow motion came up and I wasn't so sure......no, second :(
At this point I'd only had the one bet on track - the adventurous 4th race - but now it was my second play. I had tabbed Capitalism At Risk to win on the front end. He'd beaten my top pick in his last start and had bothered my horse the length of the stretch AND made a sharp right hand turn into him right at the wire.....I thought he should have been DQ'd. But he wasn't. Today he'd changed barns, but top rider Javier Castellano was on board AND the race was only 5 1/2 furlongs - a big advantage for him as the lone speed. I was surprised he was bet down to favoritism, but the crowd was right as he was MUCH the best!
I needed now to go on a roll because all of my next four picks were "best" bets. The first in the sequence came at Laurel. Manito was bound to be the favorite as it was obvious he was THE LONE speed of the race. I figured he'd be 3/5 or there abouts.....1-9 when the betting opened. Wow. Floated up to 2/5 and I thought that was fair, but at post time he was 1/5. Right to the front setting a measured pace. Two pressers came to him as they turned for home, but then his jockey said "GO" and that was that. Wish I'd have collected more, but what are you going to do? I'll tell you, you celebrate a "Best Bet" WIN! WHOOO HOOOO!
They had no sooner had Manito crossed the line than I hustled up to my box seats for the Derby to watch my "Best" at Gulfstream - It's Saturday Night. It was a turf sprint and she was sent out by Clement, ridden by Rosario. But what I really liked was the only time she'd been in a turf sprint (her only turf try actually) she has stalked a very hot pace and drew off with authority. With the 2-post I figured she was quick enough to take them gate to wire if Rosario read the break that way, or press the pace. The gates opened and she rocketed out to the front. She was pressed and when they turned for home it was clear this wasn't going to be an easy win, but Rosario asked her for another gear and she drew clear through the final 16th......ANOTHER "Best" winner! WHOOO HOOO - squared!
As they were crossing the finish line at Gulfstream they were hitting the far turn at Santa Anita in their opener where I liked #3-Bikini Bottom. Ok, on name alone you know I'm all into that ;) But she appeared to be an obvious pick off a loss in her latest maiden sprint in a photo finish while four plus clear of the show horse AND a bullet work since. Jockey Kevin Krigger had her sitting off the longshot leader as they spun out of the turn and then she accelerated to the front and drew clear late as the 1/2 favorite.......FOUR in a row and three "bests" in a row! WOW! What a great day!
But the next was THE BET of the DAY! The Aqueduct meet was supposed to move off the inner track to the outer track last week. And while that might not seem of significance, it is for today's race, the Compelling Word Stakes. IF as scheduled on the outer track this would be a one-turn mile, but because we were still on the inner track it was a two-turn mile. The favorite was going to be Saginaw who had rattled off ten wins from fourteen starts - ALL AROUND ONE TURN. He is great at the one mile distance of the race, but could he handle two turns? I thought he could and I was hoping he'd be a fair price, better than even money. And he was at 6/5. He broke on top and set a measured, and comfortable lead. As they turned for home he opened up two lengths, then three, then four at the furlong marker. I was smiling at myself at making him the "BET OF THE DAY." And then you could see that the closers were in high gear, gaining ground and had all the momentum. I quickly calculated the wire and the way they were finishing and I thought.....uh oh, this will be close. and it was OH - SO - CLOSE! PHOTO FINISH! And I mean a PHOTO FINISH! I was not sure at all because at Aqueduct the rail is striped and then there is a gap, so (as they said on HRTV) - where is the wire...at the beginning of the gap, the middle, the end? They showed the slow motion over and over and I couldn't tell - some angles I thought I'd won, others I thought I'd lost, still others I thought maybe a dead heat.
Finally, yes, a DEAD HEAT! I would have MUCH preferred the $40+ winning ticket, but - especially because it was my "BET of the DAY" I was happy to cash the ticket.....my FIFTH win in a row and FOURTH "best" bet in a row!
That proved to be the last win of the day as I missed on the final six picks - ironically, when I cashed on Saginaw I actually thought the odds were that I'd won more than my fair share for the day, but you never know. So on the day I had a fabulous day of handicapping by nailing NINE wins from just 21 selections - an identical 42.8% to match Wednesday's card. But, like yesterday still found a way to not make a profit. The Fair Grounds photo and the Saginaw dead heat had cost me over $60 and that would have made me a $50 winner on the day. But, like yesterday, it was a great day of racing and my handicapping was spot on!
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