Saturday March 2
"Big 'Cap Day"
A Chilly But Excellent Day of Handicapping!
My focus for today was at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. In fact I was VERY selective at the other tracks when looking through the Daily Racing Form. I decided with the chilly weather, and with my leg still a little bothersome (diagnosed with a blood clot this past week - YIKES!) to get a seat inside the simulcast area known as "Silks" at Gulfstream so I'd be indoors, warm and off my feet the vast majority of the day. I got off to a winning start in my first bet, at Gulfstream where Pistoria scored on the turf. Two back he won a 2L turf event by sitting mid-pack first off the claim for Team Calabrese. In his last he was in a spot like this but too close to the pace I thought. Today jockey Joe Rocco settled him mid-pack, made a move on the far turn and drew off as much the best. And the even better news - he paid a very healthy $9.60, so I got back nearly $25 to start the day!
I should have been 3-for-3 an hour later, but the stewards had other ideas! My second investment was in Gulfstream's third race where I doubled the bet on a Jamie Ness runner - he is scoring at a 47% win angle with horses racing for less than $40K and Many Crowns came to the 7-1 leader at the top of the lane and they dueled to the wire. I was standing just past the finish line and as I was second it looked to me like my horse took a bad step. My first thought was to wonder if he'd been interfered with....sure enough an OBJECTION and an INQUIRY! I watched the head-on view and it was clear that through the final 16th of a mile the winner was bearing out on me. I probably would not have had a problem if he had simply forced me out - though I have seen less result in DQ rulings - but right near the wire he slammed my horse, and that was what caused the "bad step." So to me, the combination of the forcing me out and then the risk he put both my horse and rider in were worth taking him down. There was the longest time lapse as the stewards reviewed the video over and over again, which usually means they are trying not to decide whether to DQ him or not, but where to place him. Finally the ruling - NO CHANGE! Wow.....But within minutes I was back in the winner's circle inside the Silks Simulcast center when Readtheprospectus scored at Aqueduct. He had beaten nw2x state-bred allowance, and today was taking on nw1x OPEN runners. Surging through the stretch he won, and like my first winner, paid a very nice price - $9.70 and I again collected nearly $25!
Two close losses with double investments came next --> A Todd Pletcher 4/5 favorite started slowly and couldn't make up the ground to be third at Gulfstream and then at Aqueduct I backed Dave Liftin's "BEST," a Todd Pletcher lightly raced colt with two consecutive big wins in his last two starts. He seemed to have the second choice measured and headed him in mid-stretch. The jockey, it appeared to me, was convinced he was going to draw off and never asked him, and certainly never used the whip. But the rider on the inside would not quit pushing his horse and in the final strides I lost. Ironically I'd missed it somehow in my handicapping. The Pletcher horse I'd backed was being ridden by a "second string rider" for Pletcher, Chris DeCarlo....the winner was ALSO trained by Pletcher and had "go-to" rider John Velazquez who was in NY for the stakes races......and he paid a better price....wowx2! The opener at Santa Anita was next. I doubled the bet on the favorite, who was being ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens, who has recently come out of retirement to ride - while keeping his on-air TV analysis gig going! Storm Fighter won like a 3/5 shot should....no problem through the lane as she drew off by open lengths under wraps. I missed in the 2nd at Santa Anita when Foxy Boss took the lead in mid-stretch but was caught inside the final fifty yards by two deep closers, and again at Gulfstream where I backed a longshot at 9/1 - he ran ninth. Back-to-back stakes wins followed.....horray! In the 7th at Aqueduct it was the first of three graded events, the Grade 2 Top Flight Handicap for older fillies & mares. My selection was Summer Applause who had been one of the best sophomore filles last year. I had seen her win on my visit to New Orleans, and had seen her last race of the year when she was 4th in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill. She returned off an injury layoff a month ago in a small stakes in Texas, but somehow the rider lost his irons and she lost all chance. Many "so-called experts" said we still didn't know how good she was and if she'd improved as a 4-year-old. First-time for Chad Brown (27% win angle) and John Velazquez just added my confidence, and she won for fun! I had tripled the bet and cleared nearly $35!
RIght back to the window to cash on the feature at Laurel. If you follow my racing adventures you know it is very rare indeed that I bet Laurel. But when reading through the articles in The Form Friday I saw a headline about an unbeaten filly running in the feature at Maryland. The entire article seemed to indicate she was a layover this field. And though anything can happen in racing it appeared to be a "free bingo square" to me so I invested "Prime Time".....Walkwithapurpose drew off by double-digit lengths through the stretch and scored with ease! Go me!
I lost with five of the next six races, but here's the good news: the five losses were all with minimum investments (two doubles) and the winning race was probably THE most exciting race of the day - nationally! If you read my journal last Saturday I liked Comma to the Top to wire the Grade 2 San Carlos at seven furlongs. Instead of being loose on the lead he had to duel through just wickedly fast splits, including a :43 and change half mile. He put away the big price challenger but he'd been zapped of valuable energy and he just failed to last while third beaten less than two lengths. When I looked at the past performances for the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap for today, who was in the inside speed? Comma to the Top. I read the article and the trainer said the owner had asked on Sunday if there was any reason NOT to go to New York on just a week's rest; the trainer said that Comma to the Top had come out of the race good, ate good, appeared fit and strong, and was a good traveler. So they went across the country, on less than a week's rest to go for the money! As expected he went to the front and was clear through slower fractions - though at the time as I considered he had not had to work as hard as last week, I also knew that the Santa Anita surface plays a LOT faster than the New York surface. As they turned for home he was still clear, but here came challengers to his outside, to his inside, and another to his outside. While the track announcer was calling off those three, and even one who headed Comma to the Top he was ignoring the fact that Comma to the Top was NOT backing down. Inside the final fifty yards top rider Joel Rosario pushed for more and he responded. On the wire it was a PHOTO FINISH!
I thought live, and in every slow-motion view that I'd won....and when it was official, it was Comma to the Top who was victorious.....awesome! GREAT race!
The last of the six race sequence saw another Todd Pletcher highly regarded 3-year-old fail to score when Overanalyze was flat in the Grade 3 Gotham. Missed two more following that when Tutipaesi was too close to a very slow pace in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride at Gulfstream and then with a 5/1 shot at Tampa failed to fire. I had two races left before I was heading home to watch the Santa Anita Handicap on the big screen. The Grade 1 Las Virgenes featured the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies champion Beholder squaring off against improving new filly star Fiftyshadesofhay. I was happy that many people bet on the new filly because I had seen all kinds of excuses for Beholder when she disappointed at odds on sprinting in her 3-yo debut. Her works leading to today - as well as the comments from her trainer and rider - said to me she would fire big today. I went "Prime Time" on her. Never threatened as she wired the field for fun! WHOOOO HOOOOO!
Went right to the rail and watched yet another Pletcher 3-year-old colt disappoint when Forty Tales ran evenly, and didn't even hit the board in the Grade 3 Swales at Gulfstream. I headed for home to have dinner with Kim and then watch the HRTV broadcast of the last four races from Santa Anita. The first was an optional claiming event and I doubled the investment on what I was sure would be a price play, American Blend at 6/1. He was FLYING late and was a just-miss second at 6/1....that would have been over $70 in the profit column and made for a HUGE day....sigh. Mr. Commons, one of my favorite turf runners, had won but once in a disappointing 2012 campaign. But today he looked solid in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita. His speed figures are routinely 100+ and only two of his rivals had hit the century mark - both of them ONCE in a career effort. He had a new rider today, so I figured he'd right a very smart race to impress the trainer. Instead he (a) dropped too far back, and when Mr. Commons was full of run - even track announcer Trevor Denman could see it and called it - the rider (b) tried to run through traffic on the rail. Checked, steadied, no where to go....sigh.....couldn't get out until too late, 4th as probably the best runner on the day. Disappointing, fire that guy. Next, the "BET OF THE DAY!" And for me a profit for the day if I won, and another losing day if I did not. It was the Grade 1, one million dollar Santa Anita Handicap, the "Big 'Cap" as it's known. There were several intriguing runners, but it was so crystal clear to me that Game On Dude was going to win. He was unbeaten over the Santa Anitia surface, with one exception, when he lost the Breeders' Cup Classic (when we were there) and probably the "Horse of the Year" title by breaking slowly and not utilizing his speed. That resulted in a rider change to Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, and in all his rides on 'Dude he'd gone right to the front and rationed is speed perfectly. Well, in the pre-race build-up both Smith and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert were quoted as saying Game on Dude was bigger and stronger. His works were sizzling. And more importantly to me, both were quoted as saying there would be no "strategy" to the race.....'Dude wanted the lead, he would be put on the lead, and woe to anyone who tried to run with him! As they broke from the gate he was a delicious 6/5 on the board (he's been 1-5 or 1-9 in nearly any other spot I've bet him) and Smith got him away cleanly down the middle of the track. No one appeared to want to challenge, so he swiftly moved to the rail - and from there I knew, everyone knew....it was all over! Watch the move on the recap video - as they HRTV analysts said, it was a "Hall of Fame move" and it won the race. The only thing we did NOT know was how crushing and devastating the win would be. As Trevor Denman called, it may have been the easiest Big 'Cap win, EVER. And my bet, a nice Ulysses S. Grant....so at the 6/5 odds, I scored for nearly $120! I am a winner for the day!
I saw there were three stakes at Sam Houston late tonite, and though I didn't handicap them I did bet them. I liked Departing in the Texas Heritage Stakes for 3-year-olds. He was undefeated and would have been one of the short priced contenders in the Grade 2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds last weekend, but he scratched with the wide draw. He won for fun. But I was disappointed in the 3rd place finish of Bind, one of my favorite sprinters, and I gambled that Hurricane Ike would steal the Gold Cup, but he had too much pressure and couldn't last - third. So on the day I finished with a 9-for-28 scorecard, 32% wins, and a clear profit on the day! Great times! Check out the recap video:
March 2: Big 'Cap Day Recap Video
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