Gulfstream 2012-13

A G-R-E-A-T Way To Start The Week!

March 6

As I worked through the handicapping of the Wednesday card I thought to myself that it wasn't a very strong card - not a lot of runners that I had strong feelings about, but I did find a "routine" number that I felt gave me an edge.  And then there was a little voice in the back of my head that said, ".....you never know when you're going to have a big day....."  One of my best days last winter had come when I had only five selections and didn't invest more than $10 in any race......and so the week and the day's action kicked off.  I passed the opener, but I had doubled the bet in the second where it was another Michael Maker, Joel Rosario, Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner in Young Dude.  He was there to the turn but then was put away by my third choice - second.  "Just as I thought, a routine day" was the flash I had as they crossed the finish line.  

But in the very next race my horse Determinato proved well worthy of his post time favoritism.  He had won back-to-back turf sprints at this AOC nw2x level.  The last one he'd had to race, like today for the $62,500 claiming price having won the condition.  Both of them he went gate to wire and I thought if he got loose on the front that would happen again.  But it seemed no guarantee and certainly the riders and trainers could read the Form....who would let him do that again?  And yet, that's exactly what happened!  Right to the front, clear by daylight into the stretch and never asked to run until the final furlong....much the best!  First winner of the week, and though he only paid $5.00 I quickly calculated in my head that I wasn't but a couple dollars behind after two races - still a chance to break even or make a small profit!  

In the 4th I went against the favorite and put Piano Man Ted on top.  As the HRTV analyst noted afterwards, he had been beaten a combined 45 lengths in his last three starts!  And I was surprised he was 4/1 in the program, hoping for about the same at post time.  What appealed to me was the old angle, "early speed - class drop."  Piano Man Ted had dueled on the lead through the opening quarter and was still pressing at the half mile against $25K company.  Today he dropped down to $15K.  That has been a highly successful angle for me for several years, and it proved so again today.  'Ted dueled to the far turn and when the question was asked, instead of folding or struggling he drew off with authority!  He went off at 5/2 and he paid a nice $7.20.....I collected nearly $20 and was in the BLACK for the day!  Whooo Hoooo!  If I hit the last and other double investment in my final race, I'll profit for the day I thought.  

I knew I had a bet in the next race, but hadn't checked it yet as I was working on the Florida Derby program and "watching" HRTV.  In the background I heard the commentators saying "we're approaching post time of the 5th at Gulfstream" and I glanced up at the odds along the bottom of the screen.  I thought I had one of the more inside drawn runners but they were all big odds.  And I thought it was the #4 but he was 12-1 as the horses approached the gate....that can't be me - can it?  So I picked up my selection sheet and YES it was!  What????!!!!!  I re-read my analysis:  

So, I thought, "I might have something here!"  As they left the gate he broke cleanly and was on the lead with another runner, but as they hit the first turn he'd established the lead.  I thought, "this is how upsets happen!"  Down the backstretch he was easily on the lead!  They hit the far turn and now the running started!  As I have often written, when you have a front-runner there are three key parts to the race you HAVE to pass to spring the upset / win the race......first, a front runner has to break well and be in front early.  Seems obvious, but if a front runner isn't in front at the start, it's all over.  Second, on the far turn and through the turn you have to maintain your advantage - if the pressers and/or closers are cutting into the lead and building momentum you are going to have trouble hanging on.  And finally, when heads turn for home you have to have a spurt to put more distance between you and your rivals.....if all three of those things happen you have an excellent chance of hanging on.  For #4 Arion Silver no one cut into the lead on the turn and he made the spurt turning for home!  

I had noticed that his 12-1 odds had floated up to not just 13/1 but 14/1 as the final money had come in!  He was easily clear on the wire and I was a BIG-TIME WINNER!  YEEESSSS!  The payoff was a big $31 meaning I was cashing for nearly $80!  I am going to have a great day no matter what happens in the last two races!  

It seemed a mere footnote to watch the last two races - although I will say I thought my final pick, my other double investment - Rapacious in the 9th - was gliding up like a handy winner at 2/1 but then he hung in the stretch.  So I'd kicked off the week with a 3-for-6 day and a profit of nearly $70 on the day!  Now THAT is what I'm talking about :)