Wednesday March 20
THREE WINS To Start The Week
It was a good day for handicapping statistics for sure. The only thing that did not work out today was that all three wins were with the minimum investment and three of the four losses were with runners where I'd doubled the bet. Sigh......As I often say, the handicapping of the winners is only one-half the battle. The other half, the difference between winning and losing money, is the money management.
So the day started with a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play when Parasol was sent out by Jamie Ness. He wins 47% with his runners when entered for a claiming tag below $40K and he wins a big 57% first off the claim. Both applied here - and I got a juicy 3/1 price as they left the gate.....never in it, as he ran 6th. My pick in the third scratched so I moved to the fourth. The horse, Perfect Agility, looked like an obvious pick and one that I would have normally invested at least double if not triple on....Coming out of maiden special company and dropping in for a first time tag - that alone is nearly always an automatic double bet - and the last was a KEY race where the winner had come right back to win. Why wasn't he? The rider was Patrick Husbands....now this guy, if we were playing Woodbine, is "THE MAN" to have north of the border, but this winter at Gulfstream, 6-for-70....YIKES! So I did bet the horse, but only the minimum. Husbands sat a good trip saving all the ground, swung out as they turned for home and surged to the wire to score as the 3/5 favorite. Collected a whopping $8 for my bet :) Better than throwing the ticket away as they say.
I came right back to win my second race of the day in the 6th where I liked Midnight Notes on the turf. I can't really determine why I felt inclined to only go in for the minimum. His three turf races had all earned identical numbers (70-70-71) and the last two had been his first two off the shelf - so the paired figures and third start off a layoff all pointed to a move forward today. Throw in Joel Rosario and moving from an outside draw to a cozy inside post and you got yourself a winner. I think I was a bit leery of the outside runner, my second choice Arion Silver. This guy had wired his last, albeit a maiden claimer on the turf, but had done so at 14-1 (and I had it!) with pace fractions that put him loose on the lead today. I had the race pegged exactly......Arion Silver led them into the lane, looked loose, but as is often the case, winning right back against winners is a difficult thing and Midnight Notes ran him down to score at a nice 3/1. I cashed for $20!
In the 7th I thought R Skinny's Chick was a legitimate longshot with Rosario on board. Went off at 9/1 and was a non-threatening 5th. Missed again when Pepe was a Gulfstream 40% Club play. Jason Servis wins with 55% of his first off the Gulfstream claim and 47% with Joe Rocco riding. Again a nice price, 7/2, but again a disappointment - 6th on a double investment. In the 9th I had put Isutalkintome on top. He was dropping to his lowest level yet and got the leading rider of the meet, Javier Castellano. His speed figures against better stood out here. But, as the HRTV analysts pointed out, there wasn't a "legitimate favorite" in here. And if I were playing for price I too would have avoided the bet. But, that's why I do NOT play for price. For me, as I often say, I enjoy handicapping and being right. If I am fortunate to win money as well, that's just all the better! I liked the chances of Isutalkintome and he surged in midstretch to win going away!
I missed in the 10th with yet another Gulfstream 40% Club play when Christophe Clement AGAIN failed to produce a first-time starter winner. Wow, the book has been SO OFF on that angle :( So for the day I ended up 3-for-7, which is a nice 42.8% winners....but managed to lose a few dollars. Interesting!
No comments:
Post a Comment