Disappointing Weekend

Friday March 22 / Saturday March 23 / Sunday March 24

After two BIG days of winning 42% of my selections the pendulum of winners dramatically swung back the other way.  Friday was just THE WORST.....not that my selections were "off" so much, but finding the winner's circle turned out to be impossible.......and what was the most frustrating was that six of the seven were Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club selections, even more discouraging FIVE of the six were Todd Pletcher-trained.  What are the odds that a near 40% trainer would miss on five runners on the same day?  Really, REALLY frustrating.  I tried to accept the outcome of the day by consoling myself that I was not the only one or even in the minority in picking the horses (two lost at 4/5, four lost at 3/1, and the other at 4/1), and by the fact that I'd won 12-of-28 over the past two days.....so over the three day span I was still 12-for-35, which is over 33%.  

Saturday, with our daughter Julie visiting she and Kim went to the beach for several hours, so I went to the races for a few races.  Because the meet is winding down I cashed in my points for my Gulfstream Advantage Card and got enough money to buy myself a new Gulfstream polo shirt.

I was going to see three races live before making bets for the rest of the day, and one of the races was my "best" of the day.  My first pick was in the second race where I really thought the #4 horse was the most likely winner, but there was a Todd Pletcher runner who'd be a price and the trainer of the #4, who was certain to be the favorite was 0-for-20 on the meet.  I was delighted that Pletcher's horse was 8/1 at post time.  I considered an exacta saver but knew that nearly never works for me.  Of course.....the 0-for trainer came through at 4/5 and Pletcher's horse, my pick was second --> the exacta paid a huge $45.  I was thinking of how just a $5 exacta would have netted over $100, but no, not for me.  Sigh..... in the next race I was a late running second, again.  And then came my "BEST" of the day.  Carried Interest had been the heavy favorite in her last when coming off a layoff and broken behind the field.  That day she dueled on the lead and was caught late.  Today the connections switched to the meet's leading rider Javier Castellano and she had a sharp workout.  Dueled with a longshot to the top of the stretch, but instead of drawing clear it was a stretch duel and she gave way in the final strides at 1-9 odds.  Wow, how bad is it when I can't win with a 1-9 favorite?  Still, I was encouraged about my selections for the remainder of the day.  I had two picks at Santa Anita and one at Aqueduct.  The New York horse was one of my old favorites, Writingonthewall, and he delivered at 4/5.  Both California horses lost......In my first Gulfstream pick after I'd left Street Secret rallied from the back of the pack in an exciting turf race to score at better than 5/2 with a triple bet ..... got back nearly $60 and I thought I was on my way.  But the best I could do out of four race was two thirds, both at short odds.

Finally on Sunday I still thought I had good selections and my "BEST" of the day was the return of Lady of Shamrock on the Santa Anita turf in the Grade 2 Santa Ana Stakes.  Most of my picks at Gulfstream I had top rider Javier Castellano, so I was certain I would have multiple winners on the day!  In the first two races I had the 9/5 and 3/5 favorites - no, second in both.  Sigh...... The third race I had a price play at 10/1 in the program.  Joanie's Image went off at a much lower price at 7/2 and WON!  HORRAY!  I got back nearly $15 and I thought, again, here we go!  The next was my best of the day at Gulfstream.  Brandys Secret was the lone speed on the turf and had Javier Castellano to ration her speed.  Right to the front and the opening quarter for the 8 1/2 furlongs was a bit quick at :22.4.  I knew Castellano would slow her down, she wasn't really pressured....but the half was in a sizzling :45 and change.  Now she HAD to be given a break - nope, he continued to let her run and she stopped the teletimer in an absurd 1:08 and change - even Grade 1 stakes horses who were front runners would cave under those fractions.  Sure enough, weakened in the final 16th and was third.  Really?  Castellano had failed to time the late runs in both the opening races and now couldn't win on the front end.  I am NOT having a good day.  In the next race I was second with a Todd Pletcher horse at 2/1.  Then in the 9th it was a maiden race for sophomore fillies and I had a $775K Bill Mott horse.  Profitezia was sent off at a nice 4/1 and was loose on the lead going 8 1/2 furlongs.  The pressers came to her on the turf but opened up and was four clear heading for home and the alternate finish line through the short stretch run.  But a sixteenth out you could see that she simply stopped running.  Inhaled by a closer and I was second again.  WOW.  I won the finale when Wicked Tune was simply the fastest front runner in a turf sprint and ran away from the field.  Like the last race she started getting tired, but - thankfully - had enough to hold on.  Got back nearly $15.  And in the biggest disappointment of the weekend Lady of Shamrock closed belatedly to be SECOND, again.  She didn't have that devastating turn of foot today like I'd come to expect.  For the day I ended up a 2-for-8.  And after such a great start to the week I finished with 16 wins from 53 selections - still 30% right on the nose, but such a disappointing way to end the week :(

BUT....it is now finally Florida Derby Week!  And we are on our way to see our grandson Cameron in Houston on Monday!

 

Thursday March 21:  A Full Day At The Races

FORTY-TWO PERCENT WINS!

Another fabulous day of handicapping!  I enjoyed being out at Gulfstream today so much, the weather was great....I cashed a lot of tickets.....interesting stories.....hit on all my "best" bets of the day.  What could be better?  This is what I'd envisioned my retirement would be like!  But, at the end of the day I did not have a profit.  How is that possible when I'm winning over 40% of the time with my prime selections.  In a word a photo loss and a dead heat cost me the profit on the day - but as I've often said, I can't control how the crowd bets.  If I had gotten the morning line odds on the horses I picked, even the short odds, I would have walked away with more money than I invested.  But they overbet the favorites and I did NOT find any price plays today.  Still, a great day for sure.  

I was in the winner's circle right away with the opener in New York.  Veturia looked to be the lone speed and LONG GONE as the short-priced favorite in Aqueduct's opener.  In addition she had the meet's top rider.  My only mild concern was she was first off the claim.  And though this new barn wins at a 20% clip with new acquisitions, I was still leery at short odds.  Right the front and never in doubt :)  I was a late-running second at Laurel - hardly ever play that track, just don't seem to have a handle on it on a consistent basis.  Then I KNEW when I made Navy Guard my pick in the second at Aqueduct she was not the winner.  But everything pointed her out.  I was very intrigued when Mike Beer, in the DRF analysis for the race pointed out a Kiaran McLaughlin statistic on second time stretch-out maidens.  Sure enough that horse wired the field at nearly 7/1.....right there in black and white but I had a better idea - third.  I hit my first winner of the winter at Laurel in just my second bet there when New Yawker won the third.  I had to smile to myself because the reason I'd doubled the bet on this horse was because there seemed to be a lot of speed in the race and his best efforts came from finishing strongly.  Throw in the fact the barn was 44% first off the claim, which he was, and the rider-trainer combination had been winning at a 38% clip.  So the gates open and the #4 horse, who was the 4/5 favorite is gunned to the front, and inside of him MY HORSE is gunned to the lead!  Seriously?  My first thought was that my pick was the first half of an entry and maybe the other half would save me by closing down the race.  But after dueling with the favorite through the turn New Yawker opened up and drew off by daylight!  WOW - who saw that coming?  Apparently I did, because I cashed for nearly $30 :)  I was no where to be found at Aqueduct, but then scored again by being a pretty smart cookie (if I do say so myself).  

It was the 2nd at the Fair Grounds and we were on the turf.  I was against the favorite with #6 Splendiferous.  Normally I am not a fan of low level and especially conditioned claiming horses coming right back to win.  But when Splendiferous won her last she had posted a new lifetime best speed figure.  What was the difference?  Leading rider (and the nation's leading rider) Rosie Napravnik had gotten on board!  She was back on today and I thought she had a good chance to duplicate the effort.  Rosie had her behind horses on the rail and as they entered the long Fair Grounds Stretch she went to move out between horses, but then the ouside presser closed the gap!  She shifted in towards the rail where there was room, but the front-runner drifted over!  OH NO!  She headed outside, but then the leader drifted out leaving the rail open.  Right away Roise accelerated Spendiferous through the gap....surged to the front and was up in time!  THAT my friends is why she is so good.  She makes the move outside she loses ground and doesn't get up in time.  My THIRD winner of the day!  And at a nice $7.00 payoff, so I cashed for nearly $20!  The fourth at Gulfstream was a very, VERY interesting adventure - and a first time story for me at the races.  We were on the turf and the horses were loading into the gate when the #9 horse tossed her rider and ran off.  The outrider tried to contain her but he was pulled off his horse and the two of them crashed through the rail!  Finally they caught the runaway horse, after having to pull the gate off the course.  But now there was a delay while the rail was fixed.  Then there was further delay as the horse ambulance came to take the injured outrider's pony to the barn area.  All set - no, we had to wait for the horse ambulance to come back.  Finally after 20 minutes and change it was back, the gate was in place and we began loading.......but then the #3 tossed her rider and was loose!  Seriously?  :)  Another delay until finally, nearly 30 minutes past post time we had the race.  And after all that I was second with Flash Force - another Christophe Clement first time starter who failed to deliver - to my second choice with Rosario on board.  Wow.  Still, makes for an interesting story :)  I was back in the winner's circle at Aqueduct in the 6th, my next pick.  I doubled the bet on #4-Dynamic Host who was a Grade 3 winner.  But here was the rub.  That was on the west coast, on the turf.  Today she was first off the claim, shipped to the Aqueduct inner dirt course in New York.  Still, her class SHOULD tell.  But as they turned for home she seemed to be spinning her wheels in fourth with a furlong to go.  But in the final 16th she found another gear and surged.....PHOTO FINISH!  As I looked at the replay in slow motion I thought I had won, but did not have confidence because of the camera angle....... 

I did!  I felt fortunate to get 6/5 and so I collected over $20.  I missed with a 20/1 longshot at Laurel but appeared to be right back on track at the Fair Grounds with the favorite Moshaagib on the turf.  Flying late, in just the same kind of finish.  But this time I was fairly confident I'd won.  Then the slow motion came up and I wasn't so sure......no, second :(  

At this point I'd only had the one bet on track - the adventurous 4th race - but now it was my second play.  I had tabbed Capitalism At Risk to win on the front end.  He'd beaten my top pick in his last start and had bothered my horse the length of the stretch AND made a sharp right hand turn into him right at the wire.....I thought he should have been DQ'd.  But he wasn't.  Today he'd changed barns, but top rider Javier Castellano was on board AND the race was only 5 1/2 furlongs - a big advantage for him as the lone speed.  I was surprised he was bet down to favoritism, but the crowd was right as he was MUCH the best!  

I needed now to go on a roll because all of my next four picks were "best" bets.  The first in the sequence came at Laurel.  Manito was bound to be the favorite as it was obvious he was THE LONE speed of the race.  I figured he'd be 3/5 or there abouts.....1-9 when the betting opened.  Wow.  Floated up to 2/5 and I thought that was fair, but at post time he was 1/5.  Right to the front setting a measured pace.  Two pressers came to him as they turned for home, but then his jockey said "GO" and that was that.  Wish I'd have collected more, but what are you going to do?  I'll tell you, you celebrate a "Best Bet" WIN!  WHOOO HOOOO!

They had no sooner had Manito crossed the line than I hustled up to my box seats for the Derby to watch my "Best" at Gulfstream - It's Saturday Night.  It was a turf sprint and she was sent out by Clement, ridden by Rosario.  But what I really liked was the only time she'd been in a turf sprint (her only turf try actually) she has stalked a very hot pace and drew off with authority.  With the 2-post I figured she was quick enough to take them gate to wire if Rosario read the break that way, or press the pace.  The gates opened and she rocketed out to the front.  She was pressed and when they turned for home it was clear this wasn't going to be an easy win, but Rosario asked her for another gear and she drew clear through the final 16th......ANOTHER "Best" winner!  WHOOO HOOO - squared!  

As they were crossing the finish line at Gulfstream they were hitting the far turn at Santa Anita in their opener where I liked #3-Bikini Bottom.  Ok, on name alone you know I'm all into that ;)  But she appeared to be an obvious pick off a loss in her latest maiden sprint in a photo finish while four plus clear of the show horse AND a bullet work since. Jockey Kevin Krigger had her sitting off the longshot leader as they spun out of the turn and then she accelerated to the front and drew clear late as the 1/2 favorite.......FOUR in a row and three "bests" in a row!  WOW!  What a great day!  

But the next was THE BET of the DAY!  The Aqueduct meet was supposed to move off the inner track to the outer track last week.  And while that might not seem of significance, it is for today's race, the Compelling Word Stakes.  IF as scheduled on the outer track this would be a one-turn mile, but because we were still on the inner track it was a two-turn mile.  The favorite was going to be Saginaw who had rattled off ten wins from fourteen starts - ALL AROUND ONE TURN.  He is great at the one mile distance of the race, but could he handle two turns?  I thought he could and I was hoping he'd be a fair price, better than even money.  And he was at 6/5.  He broke on top and set a measured, and comfortable lead.  As they turned for home he opened up two lengths, then three, then four at the furlong marker.  I was smiling at myself at making him the "BET OF THE DAY."  And then you could see that the closers were in high gear, gaining ground and had all the momentum.  I quickly calculated the wire and the way they were finishing and I thought.....uh oh, this will be close.  and it was OH - SO - CLOSE!  PHOTO FINISH!  And I mean a PHOTO FINISH!  I was not sure at all because at Aqueduct the rail is striped and then there is a gap, so (as they said on HRTV) - where is the wire...at the beginning of the gap, the middle, the end?  They showed the slow motion over and over and I couldn't tell - some angles I thought I'd won, others I thought I'd lost, still others I thought maybe a dead heat.  

Finally, yes, a DEAD HEAT!  I would have MUCH preferred the $40+ winning ticket, but - especially because it was my "BET of the DAY" I was happy to cash the ticket.....my FIFTH win in a row and FOURTH "best" bet in a row!  

That proved to be the last win of the day as I missed on the final six picks - ironically, when I cashed on Saginaw I actually thought the odds were that I'd won more than my fair share for the day, but you never know.  So on the day I had a fabulous day of handicapping by nailing NINE wins from just 21 selections - an identical 42.8% to match Wednesday's card.  But, like yesterday still found a way to not make a profit.  The Fair Grounds photo and the Saginaw dead heat had cost me over $60 and that would have made me a $50 winner on the day.  But, like yesterday, it was a great day of racing and my handicapping was spot on!

Wednesday March 20

THREE WINS To Start The Week

It was a good day for handicapping statistics for sure.  The only thing that did not work out today was that all three wins were with the minimum investment and three of the four losses were with runners where I'd doubled the bet.  Sigh......As I often say, the handicapping of the winners is only one-half the battle. The other half, the difference between winning and losing money, is the money management.  

So the day started with a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play when Parasol was sent out by Jamie Ness.  He wins 47% with his runners when entered for a claiming tag below $40K and he wins a big 57% first off the claim.  Both applied here - and I got a juicy 3/1 price as they left the gate.....never in it, as he ran 6th.  My pick in the third scratched so I moved to the fourth.  The horse, Perfect Agility, looked like an obvious pick and one that I would have normally invested at least double if not triple on....Coming out of maiden special company and dropping in for a first time tag - that alone is nearly always an automatic double bet - and the last was a KEY race where the winner had come right back to win.  Why wasn't he?  The rider was Patrick Husbands....now this guy, if we were playing Woodbine, is "THE MAN" to have north of the border, but this winter at Gulfstream, 6-for-70....YIKES!  So I did bet the horse, but only the minimum.  Husbands sat a good trip saving all the ground, swung out as they turned for home and surged to the wire to score as the 3/5 favorite.  Collected a whopping $8 for my bet :)  Better than throwing the ticket away as they say.  

I came right back to win my second race of the day in the 6th where I liked Midnight Notes on the turf.  I can't really determine why I felt inclined to only go in for the minimum.  His three turf races had all earned identical numbers (70-70-71) and the last two had been his first two off the shelf - so the paired figures and third start off a layoff all pointed to a move forward today.  Throw in Joel Rosario and moving from an outside draw to a cozy inside post and you got yourself a winner.  I think I was a bit leery of the outside runner, my second choice Arion Silver.  This guy had wired his last, albeit a maiden claimer on the turf, but had done so at 14-1 (and I had it!) with pace fractions that put him loose on the lead today.  I had the race pegged exactly......Arion Silver led them into the lane, looked loose, but as is often the case, winning right back against winners is a difficult thing and Midnight Notes ran him down to score at a nice 3/1.  I cashed for $20!  

In the 7th I thought R Skinny's Chick was a legitimate longshot with Rosario on board.  Went off at 9/1 and was a non-threatening 5th.  Missed again when Pepe was a Gulfstream 40% Club play.  Jason Servis wins with 55% of his first off the Gulfstream claim and 47% with Joe Rocco riding.  Again a nice price, 7/2, but again a disappointment - 6th on a double investment.  In the 9th I had put Isutalkintome on top.  He was dropping to his lowest level yet and got the leading rider of the meet, Javier Castellano.  His speed figures against better stood out here.  But, as the HRTV analysts pointed out, there wasn't a "legitimate favorite" in here.  And if I were playing for price I too would have avoided the bet.  But, that's why I do NOT play for price.  For me, as I often say, I enjoy handicapping and being right.  If I am fortunate to win money as well, that's just all the better!  I liked the chances of Isutalkintome and he surged in midstretch to win going away!  

I missed in the 10th with yet another Gulfstream 40% Club play when Christophe Clement AGAIN failed to produce a first-time starter winner.  Wow, the book has been SO OFF on that angle :(  So for the day I ended up 3-for-7, which is a nice 42.8% winners....but managed to lose a few dollars.  Interesting!

Weekend Review

March 16 - 17

A FUN St. Patrick's Day At The Races

It was not the best weekend of handicapping to be sure.  Kim and I had made plans to go out to Gulfstream together on Sunday, St. Patrick's Day so I handicapped just Gulfstream Park and had two other selections in graded stakes at Aqueduct and Oaklawn.  I won the very first race on my selection sheet when Cottontail came home a winner at the Gulfstream.  But then that turned out to be it as I ran SECOND in four of the other seven races and third in one other one.  Not a good day with results, but my horses were competitive at least!  I spent a good deal of time handicapping for Sunday, but tried to be very selective with my picks outside of Gulfstream as I didn't want to spend my day bouncing from one race track to another in simulcast land while Kim sat all alone in the grandstand.  So as it turned out I had nine picks in eleven races at Gulfstream and then twelve picks at the other four tracks.  Because I knew Kim wouldn't want to spend the day at the races I suggested we go out for the opener, at 1 pm.  I had picks in the first five races then was passing on races six and seven, so we could have a mid-day lunch-dinner at 3 pm and then come home and I could watch the rest of the races on HRTV via the DVR.  She liked this plan because it meant we were only going to be "at the races" for two hours.  

In the opener I liked Bustle who was going to be a price and had encountered a lot of trouble in his last against several of these.  The only thing I did not factor in was that Joel Rosario took over on one of the other horses.  He put that one on the lead and no one challenged him.  I was a clear second at 5/1 and he won the race at better that 4/1 leading to a $50 exacta, but of course I only played to win and ran second :(  My "other track" races were spaced nicely in that in between the first five races at Gulfstream I had one bet at another race so I wasn't bored sitting there for a long time between races, and Kim was never left alone for long.  I ran second, again at Aqueduct after leading from gate to final fifty yards.  Sigh.... then at Gulfstream I was a dismal last of nine; inside for an added money bet at Tampa on a Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno runner - they are winning at a 40% clip together there!  Awesome Mich went off at even money, no surprise, but was a tiring fifth - BIG surprise!  WOW.  In the third at Gulfstream I had the the 8/5 favorite and as they got in the gate for the turf sprint I said to Kim, I think I have a good chance here, but if the "Banzai" horse wires the field I will be so mad.  "Why?" she asked.  Because he's 20/1 and he's my third pick AND is listed as the "Upset of the Day" in the program.  Yes, you guessed it - in fact you may have guessed both parts of it.......I ran second AGAIN, and the winner was, yes, the "Banzai" runner.  As I headed downstairs to watch the Aqueduct race the announcement came that there was a Steward's Inquiry regarding the top two finishers.  I watched the replay, which they showed over and over and over and over again - a pretty good sign of a DQ that was coming.  The Banzi runner shifted out about 10 lengths as they turned for home as my pick, Bajan Rhythm was making his move.  While he didn't have to check sharply, he did have to briefly take up and change course to run inside.....then Banzai dove back inside and I had to weave back outside.  Either of the two incidents would not have been enough I thought, but making me check and alter course twice.....as one guy watching the replay in back of me said, "you can't ride like that!"  I thought for sure I was going to have my first winner of the day........"Ladies and Gentlemen, the stewards cannot find sufficient evidence to make a change, the result stands official."  Wow......again!  

At Aqueduct my horse was a first-time-starter and typically they don't like to be pinned on the rail.  Broke from the rail and could never get off the rail.....5th.  Then FINALLY a winner!  In the 4th at Gulfstream my selection was Disposable Pleasure.  She'd broken her maiden at first asking and then seen nothing but graded stakes.  She had not won, but had run competitively.  Today trainer Todd Pletcher dropped her into allowance company and she completely outclassed her rivals on paper.  And on the track!  WHOOO HOOOO!  My triple investment yielded over $30!  Now we're talking!  

I knew that my next pick was a make-or-break bet.  There was an obvious short-priced favorite who SHOULD wire the field.  But my pick, The Cat's Mine, was a new acquisition for a small barn who had sent out two runners last week who were making their first start for this new outfit....and they both won at 57/1 and 13/1!  UH OH!  I tripled the bet and got 6/1 at post time.  Broke slowly and wasn't even in the screen until the 2/5 favorite was galloping away freely inside the 16th pole.....5th.  Sigh..... The fifth was our final race to watch live before heading over the the Yardhouse restaurant which overlooks the paddock at Gulfstream for our meal.  I like Bill Mott's Geisha Gal on the turf.  She'd fired bullet works for today's return to the races and if she ran her race she looked like a pretty solid pick.  She exploded at the top of the lane and drew off easily.  My double investment got back nearly $20 and again I was in-and-around breaking even as we headed out to eat and then home.  

We had a really good meal, it's always good there, and then headed home.  Kim took a nap so I watched the replays.  Disappointing to say the least at the other tracks.  Tampa, the Fair Grounds, and then the early double from Santa Anita my pick went off as the favorite because they were the most likely winner.  4th, 4th, then 2nd in the SA opener and finally I was a disappointing 3rd at even money in the second at Santa Anita with a horse who was a standout at even money.  Well, that's why it's horseracing!  I followed an old adage at the races for my next win, which was at Aqueduct.  This happens all the time, especially in the summer at Calder where so often the same horses run against each other over and over again.  The angle is to find the horse who has not run with this crowd before.  Of the eight sprinters lined up at Aqueduct in their 8th race seven of them had either lost to the favorite (some more than once) or had lost to a horse (or two) who had lost to the favorite.  But one of the fillies, Sweet Sway had not seen any of them.  Unfortunately the crowd saw the same thing and bet her down to 6/5.  She proved best - though the unbeaten filly who'd had her way with the others was closing fast on the rail to be 2nd best......beating all the others, again!  

I lost with a Todd Pletcher maiden 3-year-old and then with three price horses.  The most disappointing loss came in the Gulfstream feature, the Grade 2 Inside Information.  The favorite, and my "best" of the day was Golden Mystery.  The most disappointing thing was NOT that she was a dismal fifth, but that I bet her.  I had told Kim that in both of her first two starts here - the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint and the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie - I had been all against her; thought she was hugely overrated.  But she won both of them motored down, under wraps and by open daylight.  Her trainer, Marty Wolfson, was quoted that she'd been training great and today's seven furlongs was her best distance AND that they were pointing to the Grade 1 Humana Distaff on Derby Day at Churchill Downs at this distance after today's race.  I should have stuck with my initial opinion and looked for an upsetter.  The winner was my third choice and went off at 6/1.  All I could do was shake my head.  But I salvaged a nice portion of my late bets by winning both of the last two selections.  I tripled the bet on another Pletcher turf-running 3-year-old maiden.  More Hundred Acres looked much the best on paper.  But into the far turn he was a distant fifth and looked out of it.  But then as they turned for home it was like jockey Johnny Velazquez shifted into overdrive and within a sixteenth of a mile she had inhaled the leaders and was long gone.  Impressive late kick!  I will cash for for close to $40 when I head back out to Gulfstream with my winning tickets.  

And in my final pick it was Brad Free's "Best" at Santa Anita.  The HRTV analysts debated back and forth about Footbridge.  The one was a big-time doubter.  The other said that Footbridge would become one of the stars of the racing world by the end of the year.  The result was a little of both.  On the far turn he surged apparently in hand and looked like he would run by the field.  But once he got clear of the leaders he seemed to stall and ran evenly to the wire, but held on courageously to win.  

So for the day I cashed on five races, but it was far below my 30% average.  I will probably head out once or twice during the week, but there are not any big stakes races this upcoming weekend and our daughter Julie will be visiting, so I'll take the weekend off.  But it's less than two weeks until the Florida Derby.....very excited!

ANOTHER Todd Pletcher 3-year-old Star!

Friday March 15

I was only able to pick two winners on Friday's card, but my "BEST" of the Day turned out to truly be the "BEST" of the day.  I didn't even hit the board in my first four selections, and really was never even in the race despite being one of the betting choices in all four.  But I finally got into the winner's circle in the 7th when Todd Pletcher's Zaikov ran away with the Maiden Special test for sophomores.  Two story lines make for interesting telling with this one.....the first is my continued frustration with the linemaker for the Daily Racing Form.  When I handicap more than a day in advance of the races using the past performances online, the odds do not appear with the runners.  But the DRF provides what are termed "Graded Entries" which is like a program.  Two years ago when I handicapped every day at Saratoga I began to notice just how far off these odds were.  The first thing I found odd was that in every race that had "Also Eligible" horses they are ALWAYS listed as the favorites.  And the second thing I noticed is that how often the obvious contenders are listed at double-digit odds.  The most obvious that summer, and now at Gulfstream is with Todd Pletcher 2-year-olds at Saratoga and 3-year-olds here at Gulfstream.  No matter if you are setting the line on what you think the crowd will bet or on who you think will win....either way it's obvious Pletcher horses, especially first-timers, are going to be well bet with an excellent chance to win.  And here's the morning line for Zaikov..... 

 Well, like most Pletcher runners he was ready to roll.  And he was ULTRA-impressive, another star in the making.  And he was my "BEST of the Day!"  Note the closing odds, duh.  

I missed in my next when third with another Todd Pletcher runner, but this one did NOT deserve to be a favorite, Unitarian had already failed to produce twice on the turf here, so one more chance.....nope.  But then I scored again in the final race when Dance Wild was MUCH the best.  I selected her because she was the only runner with any kind of chance to believe she could win.  You could obviously toss the first two on the turf.  The three dirt tries were two good thirds and a close-up fourth.  And in the last she went two turns as the 8/5 favorite, leading through six furlongs before tiring.  But she held third and was SIX clear of the fourth place.  Today she went right to the front and just cantered by daylight.  I couldn't believe I did not have more money on her......but a win's a win!  I'll play the races online Saturday, it's not a very good card, and then Sunday Kim and I will enjoy St. Patrick's Day at the races.

A Three-Bagger On Thursday!

March 14

The day turned profitable when I made two investment decisions that resulted in BIG WINS!  Whooo Hoooo!  After the nightmarish trip home on Wednesday where the normally 35-40 minute drive turned into an hour and 45 minutes I had considered not driving back down to Gulfstream.  But the weather was too tempting and I knew I had four investments to start the day and then I'd be on the road much earlier, so off I went.  I actually had a jacket on when I left (the temp was 69), but when I arrived it was sunny and warm (75 degrees) so I tossed the jacket back in the car!  In the opener I liked Miss Tapit who promised to NOT be the favorite.  Much like yesterday's first bet I liked Why Katherine but could not get past the trainer's 1-for-24 mark.  Drew off as much the best at 5/2 while I was a distant third.  In between races I was looking online at racing news and decided to check who Dave Liftin liked at Aqueduct on the day.  The first thing that caught my eye was that a multiple stakes winner, Caixa Electronica was the favorite in the third.  What's he doing running on a Thursday I wondered.  So then I read that Liftin said he'd be much the best in here if he was ready, but the "word" was he was battling a quarter crack.  So I went to the entries online to see the post time and then I saw what to me was the key.....slated to ride Caixa Electronica was Gulfstream's leading rider, Javier Castellano - for top trainer Todd Pletcher.  I paused and considered.....would Javier Castellano fly to New York to ride this veteran in an overnight stakes if it was just a tune-up?  I don't think he's been sent out for a warm-up run....he's well meant today!  I added him to my investment list and walked to the window to bet the second at Gulfstream and the Uncle Mo Stakes at Aqueduct.  I looked at the board, and again like yesterday, there was my Michael Maker trained-Ramsey owned-Joel Rosario ridden horse being pounded on the board.  Chango Verdi was my top selection in the second, and he had NOT won last time first off the claim for the Maker-Ramsey team, but it was noteworthy to me that Rosario was NOT on board that day, but WAS today.  With the heavy betting action I doubled my investment, and made Caixa Electronica a "Prime Time" bet.  I headed out to the rail and was smiling the length of the stretch as Chango Verdi won under wraps!  HORRAY!  

 I headed into the paddock and watched the Uncle Mo Stakes from New York as Caixa Electronica left the gate as the odds-on favorite.  He broke a couple steps slowly, but Castellano had him up on the pace by the end of the opening quarter and as they hit the turn he had forged to the lead.  He turned for home narrowly in front and now it was either "go time" and he'd draw off exhibiting his class edge, or he would be in trouble making his first start of the year......no problem, L - O - N - G gone as much the best!  HORRAY squared!  Two big wins in a row!  

In the third I liked On The Key who was coming off a layoff for trainer Bob Hess - a 26% win angle, and again Rosario was riding.  A good price at 5/1, but only second best.  In the 4th it was the prototype Gulfstream race - Maiden Special for 3-year-olds.  Yes, I'm looking for the Todd Pletcher runner.....uh oh - not only is the #1 Ten Items Or Less from Pletcher's stable, but also #3 Western High was from the Pletcher shedrow!  And they are NOT a coupled entry!  Both runners had the Pletcher Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club angles of second start of the meet (47% wins), but the rail runner also had a class drop going from straight maidens to state-bred maidens (47%).  He'd shown sharp early speed in a turf sprint and now moved to the main track.....he looked like the speed to steal it.  But for me the turning point angle was NOT that I had taught at Western High for most of my career :) but that jockey John Velazquez (43% win angle) had ridden BOTH colts last time out and today was on Western High.  As I wrote in my analysis, "I hope Johnny knows what he's doing!"  Right from the gate Ten Items Or Less gunned to the front, but Western High was tracking him about a length and a half off the lead.  But when they hit the turn, Ten Items had opened up by five lengths and left Western High in the dust!  Figures I thought as they turned for home.  But then I could see that the field was closing the gap.....track announcer Larry Colmus called out that "Ten Items Or Less was shortening stride....." and at the furlong marker Western High collared him and then edged clear in the final 200 yards!  Best of all, somehow the crowd had allowed this Pletcher-Velazquez maiden go off at a remarkable 2/1.  I had doubled the bet and collected $30!  I am guaranteed to be a winner on the day!  

I knew better when I made my last two selections, but I thought the trainer angle trumped my reservations.  In both the 6th and the 9th I had Jamie Ness runners in races where the claiming tag was less than 40% --> that is a 47% win angle.  My hesitation had been that instead of one of the leading riders Ness was putting Manny Cruz on board.  He's been a top Calder rider and a year ago was on fire at the prestigious Churchill spring meet.  But down here this winter he was struggling with a 12-for-140, less than 10%.  After filming my video of the Western High win I drove home, and was home in less than 40 minutes, then later watched the replays.  My worst fears were confirmed.....in the 6th Johannesboom was sent off at 3/1, but out of the gate he went to his knees and broke about ten lengths behind the field - can't put all that on Cruz, but there's a reason he's only winning 9% of his races.  And in the 9th where Drunken Love was the clear speed of the turf sprint, Cruz let the rail runner have the lead and stalked him.  Front-runners, as I've often said, do NOT run well if not on the lead.....sure enough, Drunken Love stalked a pace that should have been comfortable for him, but you could tell, he wasn't on the lead, so when they turned for home he had no interest in passing horses.....4th.  Still, for the day I'd cashed 3-of-7 and was in the black for the day :)  A good day to be at the races.

Wednesday March 13

Best Bet - And Smart Move By Me - Saves The Day

The weather was glorious and with the end of the meet in sight I told myself I had better take advantage of being able to go to Gulfstream and headed out for a sequence of five races where I had a bet.  Like last week the first thing I took care of was cashing big tickets from Saturday and I added over $100 to my bankroll.  In my first selection of the day I had the 5/2 second choice with Joel Rosario on board.  He was running late, but with the short stretch of the alternate finish line in 8 1/2 furlong races she ran out of room - 2nd.  I doubled the bet on another Rosario runner who went off at a good price of 5/1, and was the choice of both the Gulfstream in-house, on-air analysts.  But she was an even fifth....the only runner of the day to not run well.  Ironically I wrote this about my third choice:  "I would be all over 8-Geometry-Under normal circumstances - lightly raced, good tactical speed, just missed at this level last out and was well clear of the show horse - but for one thing....trainer numbers:  0-for-17 at the meet.  YIKES!"  You guessed it, won by daylight at a big 6/1....sigh....... In the 6th I had yet another Rosario-ridden runner in Prince of Speed.  A solid 9/2 price and he surged to the lead with the short stretch run, only to be nailed by a stretch runner.  Figures - I have the stretch runner, I don't get there.....I have the leader, I'm nailed by the late runner.  Second again - interesting side note on the winner.  He was 12/1 in the program and marooned in the outside post with the short run to the first turn.  But he was bet all the way down to 5/2 and won in spite of the draw.  

The 7th was my "best" of the day where I planned to up the bet on Code of Conduct.  The race was nine furlongs on the turf for non-winners of three lifetime.  One of my favorite angles, and I nearly always restrict my bets in conditioned claimers like this to this angle - is to find the one runner who's never run for a conditioned tag....even better if it's their first time for a tag.  Both angles fit Code of Conduct.  Through the summer he'd put up big efforts against allowance company and a run like that would make him an easy winner.  And I thought you could make real excuses for his last three that appeared to darken his form.  Three back he was fifth beaten over ten lengths but had the comment "stumbled badly" - an obvious excuse.  Two back he was at the Fair Grounds when they had all the rain and the turf event was moved to the main track - an obvious toss.  In his last the comment read "bumped at the break."  If you looked at his running line carefully you could see that was rushed to press the leaders and when he tired you could excuse it on the break comment alone, but there was a second comment "wide both turns."  Obvious that after rushing up and racing wide he'd tired against better.  The drop down in class should wake him up.  When I looked at the board he was being very well bet.  I decided that the betting supported my selection and that I had a far better chance than I had reflected in my originally planned investment.  So I went "prime time" and put $20 to win.  Good for me after going winless on the day to this point that I had that kind of confidence still in my handicapping!  As they turned for home jockey John Velazquez gave him the "GO" signal and he was gone.  WHOO HOO!  I cashed for $40 and was near even on the day....with a single winner.  

In the last race I faced a dilemma - a Todd Pletcher entry in a 3yo race, seems obvious, but wait....NEITHER of his go-to riders is on board and they are both here today.  Hmmmm.  They went off at 2/1 and one ran third.  Should have passed, but it was ok - I enjoyed the day and nearly broke even.  From the ten races on the day I had two other winners listed on top, 30% on the day (one at $8 one at $7+) and I also had three other winners listed in my top three!  Tomorrow is supposed to be a big cooler, but I have selections in the first four races so I'll go out again and enjoy being outside :)

 

What A Great WEEK

Week 2 of March

It was a fabulous week at the track......here are the statistics:  

 

The stakes winners from Saturday with their big numbers:  

Believe You Can  

 Discreet Dancer  

 Verrazano  

 Delauney  

 Hear the Ghost  

And here's the recap video....

ANOTHER Winning Days Tops A BIG Week

Sunday March 10

The week has produced the finest roll of winners since the opening week of February, and THE BIGGEST week of profits!  You never would have guessed it would be a profitable day if you'd been on board through the first half of the card however.  In the first three races I failed to reach the winner's circle and was second in two of the three.  Christmas Rush in the second went to post as the 5/2 second choice and became one of the few horses trained by Michael Maker, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and ridden by Joel Rosario NOT to win.... especially this week they've been on fire.  Only second best today to my third choice when run down in mid-stretch.  My pick in the 4th came down to comparing jockeys.....The Candidate had Javier Castellano had 52 wins and a 20% win average - rider for Trade Rumor had 7 wins and a 7% average.....I was a distant fifth while the 7% rider posed for a picture.  Wow.  In the 6th Daddy Loves Gold was sent out by Bill Mott.  That alone makes you take notice.  But he gave a leg up to Johnny Velazquez - back in South Florida after having a HUGE day at Tampa on Saturday - this rider-trainer combo was clicking at 44%!  I could not believe Daddy Loves Gold went off at 9/2.  Led from start to deep stretch with my double investment.....I'm collecting over $50....and then he was caught nearing the wire by my second pick.  That hurt.  

 In the 7th I was thinking outside the box.....it was a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds and older.  I liked Miss Montauk, but for an unusual reason.  Trainer Jane Cibelli has been having a good meeting here at Gulfstream, winning about 20%.  But she's having a big meet at Tampa.  Miss Montauk had been working very well for her debut.....over the Tampa surface.  And yet, Cibelli brought her to Gulfstream to debut!  That told me she thought she had a big shot at the bigger purse offered here.  At the top of the lane she was half a dozen lengths behind the favorite who looked to wire the field, but I could tell......the favorite was tiring and I had all the momentum.  Caught her under a hand ride inside the final fifty yards for my first winner on the day.  The price wasn't as high as I thought, but the $9.40 payoff allowed me to cash to the tune of $23.50 and I was less than $2 behind with a single win on a minimum bet!  

Right back in the 8th with a Todd Pletcher Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play.  In his last Cross Traffic had won his second consecutive race.  All the usual angles applied:  Velazquez on board (43%), second start of the meet (47%), rise in class (44%), and a dirt route (40%).  But what really impressed me was that when drawing clear in that debut he'd earned a sparkling 94 Beyer.  And the runner-up came back to win by eleven widening lengths, earning an even bigger 96 Beyer.  The fact that he was back in the race, with that big number I thought would help our price.....in spite of the fact that he'd beaten him last time.  The conundrum was the fact the third contender was ANOTHER Pletcher runner.  But to me, the potential to be something special was centered on Cross Traffic.  He tracked the pace to the turn and then drew off like something special......look for him in a stakes race next out!  

I have to admit I was surprised I did not win the 10th....but even as I wrote my analysis I KNEW that track logic dictated I would not.  In the former I liked the Michael Maker trained, Ken & Sarah Ramsey owned, Joel Rosario ridden Let's Do It.  Not only did he have the connections, but he was first off the claim.  He was allowed to go off at 5/2 and made the "winning move" three wide on the final turn.  The favorite, ridden by a lesser rider spent the entire trip trapped on the rail.....but as the field turned for home a golden highway on the rail opened as everyone moved two off the rail and he nailed me inside the final 100 yards.  Wow.  And just as I'd KNOWN would happen, in the finale - where I had another Maker-Ramsey-Rosario runner, Brickyard Kitten, I won.  But I had thought that Let's Do It had a better chance being first off the claim so I'd only doubled the bet on Brickyard Kitten.  She was dropping back in class and proved much the best, and at a lower price - 9/5.  But the payoff enabled me to not only profit from the two runners combined but allowed me to finish 3-for-7 on the day and a BIG winner for the week!

 

 

Saturday March 9

Tampa Bay Derby Day / GP Handicap Day

A   H - U - G - E   DAY AT THE RACES

What a SUPERB day at the track!  It was destined to be a great day as I was on track with my "track buddy" and best friend Keith.  We go back YEARS as friends and fellow racing enthusiasts.  The one thing I'd change about my retirement / racing adventures if I had the power to do so would be that Keith lived in South Florida still and he was with me at the races like the old days........ 

The day started off with a bang when I scored immediately out of the gate in the opener at Gulfstream with Conquesta.  Typically I will NEVER bet a maiden after five or six losses, but like all things in racing - "never say never!"  Today Conquesta was claimed by Marty Wolfson for $25K two back and he put her in $50K company where she missed in a photo.  Today was 2nd-time-Wolfson and dropped back to $25K maiden claimers.....easily!  

I KNEW not to bet the opener at Tampa, but couldn't get past the fact that multiple stakes winner It's Me Mom was the lone speed....even though I was nearly certain she couldn't carry it 6 1/2 furlongs, and off a layoff.  But I bet anyway.....8th....sigh.  But I scored right back in the second at Gulfstream when Sonja's Angel was MUCH the best.  She was 2nd off the claim for Peter Walder - a Gulfstream Park 40% Club angle (over the last two years he's won with 60% of those!).  

Following that win I was 3rd, off-the-board, and 2nd in three races before scoring at Tampa in their 5th.  It was an allowance race for 3-year-olds on the turf and what figured to be the odds-on choice was Noble Tune.  He had debuted for Chad Brown last fall with an emphatic win going two-turns over the turf, then dominated in the Grade 3 Pilgrim in his second start.  In his third and final start of the year he was a fast-closing second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  He just laid over this field and I anticipated him launching his big kick from mid-pack when entering the final turn.  But as Keith and I watched it, he was LAST as the leaders spun out of the turn into the stretch.  He had been 1/9 and then 1/5 when I bet and they entered the gate.  Keith said to me, "He just didn't fire today..." and just then you saw a burst and it was without question the MOST AMAZING stretch run in allowance company I've ever seen.....from dead last to WIN!  Though it was a blanket finish, I knew he'd won - see the photo:  

And even better, his odds had floated up to 1-2, so my triple investment yielded a return of well over $20.  I gave Todd Pletcher's Oistin's Town one last chance (lost with him twice already) and he let me down again, but at a tempting 6/1 price.  Then it was back to Tampa for the 6th.  It was so similar to the 5th.....this was a dirt sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs and somehow the crowd let Jarrod's Commando go off at 7/2.  First, he was trained by Jamie Ness for powerful Midwest Thoroughbreds, and that is a 40% winning combination all over the country, but especially at Tampa when top rider Daniel Centeno is on board.  For the last several years those guys team up and it's always odds-on.  The most effective angle with those two is when the runner is first off the claim, like today!  The horse seemed to break slowly, but I immediately thought Centeno wanted to get off the rail and rally.  But as they hit the far turn, much like Noble Promise he was WAY back.  No chance at the 1/8th pole, but then, like Noble Tune he came surging late....it was going to be close, but with 100 yards to run I couldn't believe what I was watching.....Centeno was just hand riding him - he knew he had the momentum to win and he did!  He paid a stellar $9.20 and I cashed for nearly $50!  AWESOME!  

But, I then went on the longest run of the day without a winner - over an hour and five races.  As Keith and I stood inside the simulcast area waiting for the 6th at the Fair Grounds I remarked to him - "I'd like to get back on the winning track here, and then in the next ten races or so I have a LOT of confidence in at least six of them!"  Propelleroneway was my pick at the Fair Grounds on the turf and he rallied W-A-Y out in the middle of the course, and ran through the stretch about ten wide off the rail!  But he was an easy winner.....here we go!  

Less than ten minutes later we were in our reserved seats watching as Todd Pletcher's Red River was debuting in Maiden Special company.  That's an automatic play at Gulfstream, and he supported my confidence by drawing off to an easy score!  Couldn't believe I was able to cash for nearly $30 on a Pletcher 3-year-old....wow!  

I was surprised when Forces of Darkness did NOT win in the Grade 3 Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa on the turf - as it turned out it was the only race of the day that John Velazquez did NOT win on the super Tampa Bay Derby stakes-laden card.  Then it was time for my "BET OF THE DAY" - it was at the Fair Grounds and it was the $150K New Orleans Ladies Stakes.  Believe You Can was going to be odds on, I knew that.  She was a multiple graded stakes winner, winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last spring, and had beat a field like this - not a single foe had even FACED graded company - by ten widening lengths a month ago while never taking a deep breath.  But here was the amazing thing.....with two minutes to post time none, NONE of the other five horses had a single dollar bet on them to win!  The entire pool was on Believe You Can!  Some fools finally bet a couple of the others, but that was obviously in vain as she cruised to an statsitic-padding win for me :))  

After missing in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn I was right back in the winner's circle with one of my all-time favorite horses, Hyper.  I'd won with him on many occasions, but he is nearly unbeatable here at Gulfstream.  In fact, he was 4-for-4 here until a month ago when he made his first start off a long layoff for Chad Brown.  He'd spent over a month in Europe AND he broke slowly that day on his return, leaving him with too much to do.  He was a good third.  So I was willing to give him that one.  With Todd Pletcher's Finale in the field I figured to get a fair price, but never figured on 5/2.  Especially since after I'd had Finale in a high priced claimer he had failed in allowance company, so I was pretty sure he was not the winner here.  Though close on the wire, Finale was chasing Hyper through the length of the stretch and I was certain I'd win.....and I did.  But I was amazed and delighted that he paid a big $7.20, so I cashed for over $50 on my triple investment!  WHOOO HOOOOO!  

We walked inside and it was the premier event of the day.....THE TAMPA BAY DERBY!  I had cashed on Todd Pletcher's Verrazano in his debut on New Year's Day debut and his dazzling win going a one-turn mile in allowance company a month ago.  I remarked to Kim at the time that "this could be my Derby horse!"  But I was amazed that with just two career starts, never having gone two turns, never facing stakes company, he was on most handicapper's Kentucky Derby list.....AS THEIR TOP CHOICE!  He had a lot to prove today, and it was probably the "smart thing" to bet against him.  But I thought he really was the best three-year-old in the country.  When I read in the Racing Form how excited Pletcher was, and then saw on HRTV jockey John Velazquez say the only horse he'd ever ridden that was this exciting was the ultra-talented Uncle Mo....I knew I was right.  He stumbled out of the gate a little, then had to be steadied as Velazquez got him outside of a front-runner determined to go to the lead from an outside post on the first turn.  But then it was all over as Velazquez never asked him.  He was so dominant - and never really asked for his best.  As the HRTV analysts remarked - he had a bit of trouble, got some dirt in his face and overcame all of it to be dazzling again.  WOW.  

My next was at Santa Anita, in another Maiden Special for 3-year-olds.  What made this unique was that my top pick, Red Tesla had not raced in A FULL YEAR!  But Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has just silly-good statistics with extended layoffs like this and Red Tesla won by open lengths while TONS the best.....another $20+ return on my double-down bet!  And to finish off my sizzling streak of wins, it was time for the feature at Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  It was my "BEST" of the Day here....and I did NOT like the defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion Fort Larned who left the gate as the odds-on favorite!  First, today was a one-turn mile, and he is a classic-distance runner; second he had not been out since November in the Breeders' Cup;  third, I know he's got bigger targets down the line so I figured he would not be cranked up all the way;  and I'd read as much in the Racing Form from his trainer.  I also did NOT like the fact that horse he beat in a thrilling photo for the championship was Mucho Macho Man who I think is HIGHLY overrated, had come back to run here in the Donn Handicap and failed miserably....and this is the only track where he typically runs his best!  I told Keith, "If Fort Larned wins, it's because he's just way too talented for these...." and then I pointed out in the Racing Form - this time last year he kicked off his championship season when he LOST in a starter handicap, that's right, not even a stakes race....AT TAMPA!  All that added up to me a real chance to beat the champ today.  I thought a real viable alternative was Todd Pletcher's very talented Discreet Dancer.  He had set a track record in his debut here last winter; then dazzled in his one-turn mile allowance test.  Then he was a tiring third behind future Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth.  Off for nearly a year he returned to WIN here, as my best of the day when on track with my Mom in February.  Add all this up, he was my "BEST"  Well, it was made ultra easy for me because on the second jump out of the gate Fort Larned went to his knees and tossed his regular rider, who'd flown in to ride today just for this mount!  It was all over but the amount Discreet Dancer would win by!  I'm not sure how good Fort Larned would have run, he actually led the entire race - of course he didn't have a jockey on board..... 

But it didn't matter because the official winner was Discreet Dancer and I collected nearly $60 on my "BEST" at Gulfstream - a Todd Pletcher horse no less :)  And I'd cashed on back-to-back "BEST BETS" - and had already cashed on my "BET of the DAY!"  I'm having a VERY good day!  

I still had two winners on my sheet as it turned out.....I lost in a four-way photo at Tampa in my last bet there (John Velazquez wins again!) and then in my co-best at the Fair Grounds I was all over Delauney in the Duncan Kenner Stakes.  Though it was an ungraded event and he'd beat these guys in their last three outings, his Beyers - and even "experts" were saying - were Breeders' Cup-like.  He was the easiest of winners!  I had $30 to win and got back nearly $40.  Interestingly I had considered betting what would have been a chalky "Bet-3" with Believe You Can - ALL - Delauney.  With seven horses that would have cost $14.  The payoff - $9.40 :)  Smart guy to pass on that bet!  

I closed out the live day of racing with two losses and made my final two bets before Keith and I headed to Outback for steak to celebrate our winning days!  And yes, we both had big days.  As we left I was up about $50 and Keith, after "firing away" all day had been $15 ahead going into the final race at Gulfstream.  He put $100 to show on a 5/1 horse ridden by Javier Castellano, who'd had a big day with five wins.  The horse ran second and the show payout was a nice $5.80....he cashed for $290 so he netted for the day just over $200!  YAY KEITH!  When we got home from a great dinner - thank you my friend - I turned on the HRTV recording to watch my last two plays.  In the Grade 3 Razorback Horse-for-the-Course Alternation was a disappointing fifth at Oaklawn.  My final bet was my UPSET OF THE DAY!  It was in the feature at Santa Anita, the Grade 3 San Felipe - their last major prep for the Santa Anita Derby.  The "big horse" out there was Flashback for Hall of Famer trainer Bob Baffert.  But, I wasn't a fan....he'd only been out twice and had run easy loose-on-the-lead races so far in just two career starts.  The second choice was Goldencents, who I'd had in his last.  He too was a loose-on-the-lead runner, but in his last, a win in the Grade 3 Sham, he'd shown an ability to sit just off the front-runner.  He'd only lost once, to the juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby last year, and he didn't "NEED the lead."  But when he'd won the Sham, instead of drawing away from his overmatched rivals he just grinded away to win by about two lengths leaving me unimpressed.  Then on Friday I saw that HRTV analyst Jeff Seigle listed Hear the Ghost in his top fifteen Kentucky Derby list.....and he had never been two turns or in a stakes, but had excellent breeding and apparently some talent.  He commented that's who he liked in the San Felipe.  When I looked at the race I thought the two favorites could possibly duel each other into submission, and who ever survived would be vulnerable to a late runner, like Hear the Ghost.  Could not have been more spot-on.  Flashback won the battle and at the furlong marker was in front, but here came Hear the Ghost with a full head of steam......and he nailed him inside the final fifty yards.  He'd been bet down lower than I thought he would, to 5/1, but still paid $13.80.  My double investment means I'll cash on my next visit to the track to the tune of nearly $70!  And now my big day became a HUGE day with over $100 in profits!  What an AWESOME day!