Gulfstream 2012-13

YES!  End the Week in a B - I - G Way!

January 7

If you have followed my racing adventures at Gulfstream you know it has been a real roller-coaster ride, and especially this week.  On Tuesday January 1 I has hot as a firecracker to start the year.  I scored in five of seven including my best of the day.  I finished with a big profit and thought "here we go!" as I looked to move into the black for the meet.  But then Thursday and Friday were back down to "close-but-no-cigar" again as I only cashed ONE ticket at Gulfstream.  No worries, Saturday was certain to be a big day.....but instead I lost out on what were "near-certain" wins costing me nearly $300 in winnings.  As I got online for today's races the first thing I had to do was check to see if I had enough money in my account to cover my selections.  I did the numbers and if I had another "down" day I would be nearly cleaned out, but I could cover all my bets.  So I made them - and I have to mention, again, I was proud of myself to NOT back off.  I believe in my handicapping and I KNOW that the wins will come, so I went with my selections as I had analyzed them earlier this week.  

In my first bet of the day, it was the first of SIX Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club plays.  Exclusive Force was my selection - trained by Kirk Ziadie, he was running in a $16K claimer for Team Calabrese.  Ziadie wins 63% in claiming races under $40K and off a long layoff.  A longshot ran by the field on the turn and won by about eight lengths.....second.  Arrrgggghhh.  Not the way I thought the day would start.  I won the third race, at 3/1 - unfortunately, as seems to be the case recently, it was a "PASS" race for me....wow.  In the 4th I selected 1-Pecky's Boy as the speed on the rail.  But I listed on top #14 Major Marvel.  This guy had just missed on Opening Day in a Claiming Crown stakes race and then come back to score as my "BET of the Day" in his next start at this level.  He was on the "AE" list and I noted that if he were able to draw in that he would be a top selection in spite of the wide draw.  When I went to make my bets I was very surprised that indeed he had drawn in due to two scratches.  For a moment I hesitated and thought, ....is this the kind of spot where I'd be wise to avoid the race?  Certainly he'll be a short-priced favorite; coming off a dominant win, he might be vulnerable from the wide draw?  So I re-read my analysis and said "NO" - I was right, and made the bet.  Jockey Javier Castellano asked him early to clear most of the field and he had Major Marvel third, just three wide, as they turned down the backside.  On the far turn he asked Major Marvel for his best.  He appeared to me to be feeling the affects of his last-out dominant win, but he was simply too good for this field.  I WIN!  HORRAY!  

In the fifth I was right back into a GP Handicapper selection.  Trainer Jamie Ness is a Club member with runners in for less than $40K, like Ziadie - 47% for Ness.  And, like my first selection, Megalith was first off a Gulfstream claim, and that is a 57% angle for Ness.  I tripled the bet......he stalked the pace to the turn then when asked for his run he was empty.  Very disappointing.  Right back in the 6th I was on another Kirk Ziadie horse, another GP Club play with Blues and Silver.  He was part of an entry with two different trainers and riders, but I noted I did NOT like the entry, but would take the added insurance.  Blues and Silver went right to the lead and slowed the pace down comfortably.  As they hit the far turn and the other riders began to ask their horses for run to close the gap Blues and Silver hit another gear and was quickly long gone.  I'd doubled the bet for my second winner!  YAY ME!  

When I was handicapping the races and turned the virtual page to the 7th I remarked in my analysis, "....what is this, Kirk Ziadie day?...."  The angles, by the Gulfstream 40% Club sheet were enough to make him a solid play.  Running for a $10K tag (a whopping 63% angle); in a dirt sprint (41% win); and coming off a long layoff (again a HUGE 63% win angle).  So I was planning to at least double the bet.  But as I looked through the field he not only was far and away the best, but the competition was probably the weakest of any of my GP Handicapper plays today.  So, in spite of this being a low-level claiming event, he was my "BET of the Day."  

I've often said throughout my handicapping adventures that one of the great things about thoroughbred racing is that you can find a good bet, a "BEST" of the day on any day of the week, at any racing level.  They pay the same for a bottom-level claimer as they do for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup championship race.  But, this story had more to it.  And keep in mind how the opening bet of the day had gone when Exclusive Force had disappointed under nearly identical circumstances.  Rough'n Royal shot right out of the gate - and immediately I was excited because instead of being odds-on, which I thought under the circumstances she deserved to be, somehow the crowd had let him go off at better than 5/2!  He was on the lead and had the rail.  But before the first quarter mile a 40-1 longshot came up to challenge him.  As they dueled through the opening quarter I thought, "don't let this guy soften you up, put him away."  But as they began to approach the far turn the rider decided he'd be better off to let the longshot go on with it and try to move off the rail.  As they ran through the turn however Rough'n Royal was not ready to pounce, he was fading.  The disappointment would have been so obvious on my face if you had been watching me.  But as heads turned for home he seemed to find another gear....but so had the longshot leader.  At the furlong marker though you could see I was making progress and just might collar the leader.  Then, here came a late runner right up to my neck!  But inside the final 16th the "Ziadie-angles" kicked in and he cleared the field to score under wraps!  The payoffs were enough that I nearly collected $75 on my "BEST of the Day!"  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!  I am guaranteed to end the week a winner!  

I had two more GP Handicapper 40% Club plays, but missed with both. The first of them was a Pletcher turf runner.  I know he's not at his best in turf routes, and Patrice Merion was dropping into 2-lifetime company.  But as I noted, you are either in on Pletcher or you are trying to beat him.  You just can't guess when he is going to win and when he isn't.  Right there turning for home, no late punch - 4th.  In the 9th it was another Pletcher runner.  I really thought this could be "one of those" where he wins at a price....not just because of all the GP Handicapper angles, but because top jockey Joel Rosario was riding.  Rosario had moved his tack to Gulfstream this winter (instead where he dominates in Southern California) in search of a Derby horse.  Who has all the Derby horses?  Pletcher!  So today was his first mount for Pletcher, and I just knew that he'd ride the hair off the horse.  Early on he was not with the leaders and faded badly at a huge 6/1.  Oh well, I'm a winner at Gulfstream to close the week!  

But wait......I had one more play.  The feature at Santa Anita today was the Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes.  And it had two things about the race that I just loved.  First, it was a turf sprint down the hillside, and I LOVE to handicap those races.  More importantly the likely favorite was Mizdirection.  If you follow my adventures that name should ring a bell - she was my top pick against the boys last out.....in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and I'd tripled the bet!  She had rallied down the middle of the track to score, paying a whopping $15.80 and I collected over $100.  With that win she ran her record down the hillside to a perfect 3-for-3.  She seemed a slam dunk in here.  And then I analyzed the race.  It was a small field and there was one and only one front-runner.  The dilemma was what should rider Mike Smith do?  Mizdirection had won on the lead/pressing the lead, but by far her best performances were closing into a hot pace.  The field broke from the gate and immediately none of the other riders went up to challenge the front runner.  You could almost see Mike Smith making the calculations and nearing the half-mile marker he moved up to be within a length of the loose-on-the-lead runner.  The question was, did she have her same closing punch?  As they crossed the dirt track and everyone accelerated it was the front-runner that seemed to have the best closing punch.  But then Smith went to work on her and she began to respond, but as they moved inside the final furlong she still had a lot of work to do, especially at the rate she was moving.  But suddenly at the 16th pole she seemed to acknowledge that the time had come to get the job done!  She found not just another gear, but a turbo gear and she just exploded to get up JUST in time.  YEEEESSSSSS!  I had tripled the bet, so I collected nearly another $30 to finish the day a fabulous 4-for-8 and with a profit of nearly $50!  

So I'd bookended the week - started off on New Year's Day with a 5-for-7 performance and closed the week with a 4-for-8 performance.....both with solid profits on the day!  We're back at the races Wednesday, and I think I'll head out to be there as I've not been at Gulfstream since December 29th.