Monday January 21 - MLK Day
Special Holiday Racing Card!
BIG WINS! PROFIT!
Good way to end the week
I finished off the racing week with two more wins at Gulfstream, and like Friday it was a solid profitable adventure. In the first two selections on the day I ran 3rd in both, and both were with the favorite. Man, can't seem to catch a break on the chalk these days! In my next I had Jade's Ranbow at a solid 3/1. My second choice was on the lead turning for home on the grass and 'Rainbow had the momentum and the rail. But at the 16th pole when he should have gone on with it, he hung.....second by a narrow margin. My fourth pick also missed when unable to overcome the wide draw in the 12 post. And so any hope of a winning day fell to my last two selections, including my "BEST" of the day in a claiming event on the grass.
Much like the Stopshoppingmaria story from earlier in the week, I thought this was great spotting of a horse who'd lost his confidence by trainer Todd Pletcher. Now, on the one hand you could say, "Duh, picking Pletcher isn't any great handicapping feat." But I would argue, and be supported by the fact that he went off at nearly 5/2. The horse was Finale, and he'd won his very first turf attempt as a two-year-old in the summer of 2011. His next start came in the Continental Mile at Monmouth and I remembered seeing him destroy that field in literally a canter. I made a note to myself that he might be a Breeders' Cup horse! In his next start he annexed the Grade 3 Summer Stakes at Woodbine as my "best." On to the Breeders' Cup in November 2011, when we were there on the rail :)
Finale went off as the favorite that day, but was in a wide post position, got jostled and bounced around, and was wide into the stretch. Though he finished 7th, he was only beaten four lengths. He returned to disappoint in a couple of stakes - the first was here last winter when I went against him. He faced Summer Front that day, who has gone on to be a multiple graded stakes winner, and that one had the conditioning edge. But then there were no excuses. Off a layoff he'd been the pace setter before weakening in his last two starts this fall in Grade 3 events. So today, like Stopshoppingmaria, I though Pletcher was putting him in a spot where he'd most likely win....gain some confidence....and then he could begin to rebuild through the allowance ranks and then into stakes. The difference was that unlike 'Maria who'd been entered in allowance spots, Finale was in for a $40K tag. Still, that's a pretty hefty price to pay for a horse who might be off-form, so I figured Pletcher knew it was a soft spot and a calculated gamble that no one would claim him. In addition, the Gulfstream Handicapper indicated that Todd Pletcher was a solid 47% with class droppers and 43% with John Velazuez riding. Too much evidence to ignore......Finale made a wide bid on the turn, had all the momentum and drew off through the lane! He paid a remarkable $6.80 and with my triple investment I cashed for over $50! WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!
My final selection of the day came in the last race on the card and it was another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club selection. Kadaya had scored earlier in the meet for trainer Bob Hess who wins with 45% of his allowance runners and I'd made him my second choice - bad move! Today they were going the marathon distance of 11 1/2 furlongs. Most handicappers figure that this long distance favors the deep closers, but the fact is that speed - or ability to be close to the front is usually a big advantage. So it was with disappointment that I saw Kadaya drop back, back, back and nearly trail the field the first time around the track. In fact, as they approached the far turn not only was he not in the TV picture, but the little chicklets that track the runners across the bottom of the screen/tote board didn't even have the number 7 visible! But as the other horses hit the turn track announcer Larry Colmus called out that Kedaya was gathering momentum. By the time they straightened for home he was a bit wide but had all the momentum! And by the 16th pole he'd inhaled the front runners and was gone to victory. He paid $5.60 so I collected nearly $30 on my double investment. Two-for-six on the day and a profit of nearly $30! No racing on Wednesday (because of today's holiday card).....but we'll be back at it on Thursday!
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