I had made plans to join our good friends Caryl and Kevin Hanlon at the races today, as they were bringing friends and family to the races. It was a wonderful Saturday afternoon to be at the races with superb weather, great racing, and I scored in over 30% of my selections. The only thing I felt bad about was that I only had one winner at Gulfstream out of ten selections. But, to be fair, the three "professional experts" that handicap for the track had one win, one win, and the "top handicapper" Ron Nicoletti, had ZERO....so, as I said in the video above, "I guess I'm as good as they are!" But the one thing I will remember more than anything about this Saturday at the races is that a combined difference of a few feet separated me from a HUGE profit on the day.......
So, let's get to the stories:
We had no longer got settled in our seats when I had to head inside to make two simulcast wagers. The second at Tampa was an easy-peasy-pie by the winner as Cheechako drew off through the lane under mild hand urging.......
And less than ten minutes later it was time for the co-feature at Aqueduct, the 1 1/2 mile Coyote Lakes Stakes. In their last meeting, at this track and distance, Wayward Sailor and Ea had engaged in a duel from the six furlong marker to the 12 furlong marker and Ea could not get by. But that was Ea's first start off a break and today he had a big jockey upgrade to the nation's leading rider, Ramon Dominguez. The crowd wasn't fooled as they made Wayward Sailor the 5/2 second choice and Ea the 6/5 choice. About half way down the backside they were head-to-head and the duel was on. But it didn't last long because as they hit the far turn Ea found another gear and left the Sailor in the slop.
They posted the prices at about 1 pm, and it wasn't until two hours later that I'd see one of my horses in the winner's circle again. In the second at Gulfstream, my first selection on track I ran 3rd as the 8/5 favorite. The winner who paid over $20 would have been easy to spot had you looked back through her pp's, but I didn't dig deep enough. In the third I was on the rail to watch GP Handicapper 40% Club selection New Englander run away to a win for trainer Jamie Ness. He moved to the lead handily on the turn, drew clear at the furlong marker and I was smiling, until I saw my third choice rallying strongly down the middle of the track. They drew even at the 16th pole, New Englander fought back against the horse with the momentum and as they blew by me I thought I'd hung on, but I wasn't confident. Sigh, such was the way most of the photos would go for the day........
Second.....disappointing :( Missed again when I backed a 40% Club angle where Side Road was trying the turf for the first time for Kiaran McLaughlin who scored 44% with class droppers - no where to be found at 5/1. At Tampa I ran second, again at 7/2. In the fifth I was certain I'd win with Won Fast Bullet, and the crowd agreed making him 3/5.....second again! Then came one of the toughest defeats of the day - in fact if I could have one winner that escaped me and only one, it would be this one.......When I handicapped the Aqueduct card, Taproot looked like a short priced winner in the claiming sprint. I checked DRF Handicapper Dave Liftin's pick --> Taproot, and three of the four selectors had him on top....
I tripled the bet. With ten minutes to post I looked up and the #4 was at 6/1....did I have the wrong number? Nope....was I betting the wrong race? Nope? OH MY! The race seemed to go just as expected. Taproot sat off the front-runner, moved on the turn and made his move as they straightened for home. As I watched on the simulcast television I couldn't hear the track announcer, but his call (watch the video) makes the story even more unbelievable. It was so obvious Taproot was going to win, as the announcer called, "Here comes Taproot, and Taproot moves to the front." As they hit the 16th pole he was edging clear and the announcer was making his "wrap up call" - "and in the final 16th it's Taproot, but WW's coming back!" Yes, the front runner and his rider had not given up, and I thought my jockey had felt like he had the race wrapped up. But the time he saw the threat it was too late.
What could have been! At 6/1 and my triple investment I'd have collected almost $100 and that my friends would have made for a completely different day. Wow. Ten minutes later I finally scored at the Fair Grounds in their opener when Gerry's Reward won at odds-on. Little consolation for the miss at Aqueduct. And then the next race, the 6th at Gulfstream was another tough pill to swallow, especially for me personally. I had relied on the Gulfstream Park Handicapper and it's assertion that the top trainer over the last two years with maiden first-time-starters was Christophe Clement. I personally had witnessed that Todd Pletcher was best, and anytime his name was listed in a sophomore maiden race, he's just an automatic double bet. SOOOO many times I've said, "Who didn't get the memo?" Or I would say/write - "You're either all in with Pletcher or you're not, you can't guess when to bet on him." Well, the GP Handicapper had listed Pletcher's worst category was turf routes, and he'd lost a couple of those. So in the 6th I went with a Clement FTS who went off at 2/1 and was no where (7th). The winner - Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez, textbook selection. The worst part, he went off at 7/2 and paid $9.20, I would have collected nearly $50 and would have gone on camera saying "WHO doesn't get the memo?" Now, apparently it's me that didn't get the memo....never, NEVER again. I finally won a race in Hallandale in the 7th. Starship Titan was another Jamie Ness-trained for Midwest Thoroughbreds. For some reason I only had the minimum :( He won at a very generous $7.20......
But as the clock turned to 4 pm I seemed to catch find my handicapping groove. In the 8th at Tampa it was the Gaspirlla Stakes for 3yo fillies. I liked Vitameta and in a thrilling three horse stretch duel she was best.....
Then I won with comebacker Midnight Transfer at Santa Anita in an allowance spot at 6/5. His race earned a triple Beyer and he's now going to be pointed for a graded stakes, so I was lucky to get more than even money on him. I missed with a Chad Brown second-time maiden who was 3/5 - 3rd.....wow, but then I scored back-to-back races. The first was at the Fair Grounds in an off-the-turf event where Proud Strike was clearly the horse to beat in spite of the outside draw. And he drew clear late at 4/5. But the score of the day came in the 4th at Santa Anita. This was a claiming race, sprinting down the mountain course. I LOVE to handicap these races because they are almost always won by horses who've proven themselves over this unique course. And so many times the crowd backs horses who do not have good trips down the hill, or even have run down the course. They apparently look at turf sprint form from other tracks, and there is NOTHING like running down that hillside, experience down that course is THE KEY. Well, I picked Mr. Bossy Pants who had a 4-for-7 record down the course, and was clearly the horse-for-the-course in the field. She was three wide into the lane and it was AWFULLY close, but he was the winner in a exciting finish!
And the best part - he was allowed to go off at 4/1 - paid $10.80 and I was cashing for over $50! Next up was the featured Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale - I ran third with Big Blue Kitten while the winner paid $84.20. I looked at the Form and in his last four turf efforts the winner had a record of: WIN, WIN, WIN - Needles Stakes, and then 2nd by 1/2 length in the Grade 2 McKnight - and yet he was allowed to go off at better than 40/1! Right before I left I had the second loss that I'd love to have back...... it was in the 6th at the Fair Grounds and again I was surprised that my horse, Tread, was not the favorite. He too went off at 6/1. He too, like Taproot earlier, came to the leader, seemed to have him measured, took the lead and looked to be gone, only to have the rail horse re-rally and I lost a photo.......
I had four selections to watch after I left the races.....I had what looked like the best main-track horse in the feature at the Fair Grounds when it was rained off the turf. Starlite Starbrite was 7/5 and faded to the back through the stretch. Then at Santa Anita I had Wine List....rallying down the outside, stretch duel, PHOTO FINISH! What to guess the outcome?
Yes, second, again. Third down the hillside at a big 7/1 - that would have been nice! And then in the final race of the day Admiral Nelson won the finale at the Fair Grounds. It wasn't hard to figure this 3/5 winner - he was claimed from his last by top trainer Steve Asmussen for owner......STEVE ASMUSSEN! Duh.
For the day I finished 9-for-28, a nice 32% winning percentage. But oh the money that COULD have been mine! But, that's the fun of this game, so many what would have beens!
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