Gulfstream 2012-13

Saturday January 6

And That's Racing....sigh.....

After struggling through Thursday and Friday's races I was ready to cash some tickets on Saturday, and tripled the investment in the 2nd when Quiz Whiz was sent out by trainer Jamie Ness.  According to the Gulfstream Park Handicapper he was a 57% winner first off the Gulfstream claim and a 40% winner with runners in for less than a $40K tag, as well as a 40% winner with horses owned by Midwest Thoroughbreds.  Somehow he was allowed to leave the gate at 9/2.  Through the turn he was full of run and I was very excited because I just KNEW he was going to blow by them. Sure enough he blew by and was clear in the lane.  He shifted out a couple of paths at the 1/8th pole, but he was already clear of the others and won going away.  I had already begun calculating my winnings when it was announced there was an objection and a steward's inquiry.....really?

I was watching the races on HRTV and BOTH commentators watched the replay and said that they were fairly certain there would be no change in the order.  He had shifted out, but he was already clear and even if there was a little interference it certainly would not have affected the outcome of the race.  Then the one analyst noted that her only concern was that a week ago in a similar situation where they had been certain the stewards would not make a change, they had.  That was my first red flag.....sure enough, the number was taken down.  Certainly, that is racing - it's part of the risk you take, but boy that one hurt.  A win there at odds of 4.5-1 would have meant I collected over $80 and would have been a guaranteed winner for the day.  Instead I'm down $15 - that's a swing of nearly $100, and no matter how good you are, that's hard to recover from.  Especially so when I'm struggling to cash this week.  

In the very next play I was coming up the rail with what I thought was a winning move - at 4/1 with a double investment - when I was checked by the favorite.  Would have been ok had the favorite won and I finished second, but no, he faded to 2nd and I was third.  The DQ of the favorite to move me to second was little consolation.  Now I SHOULD have been 2-for-2 and collected almost $150.....instead I'm 0-for-2 and lost $25 :(  

My racing "luck" continued when after finishing well beaten with a longshot I tabbed a Todd Pletcher debut runner with a triple investment.  Again I was fortunate that the crowd let him go off at a HUGE 9/2.  He stalked the longshot leader through the turn, swung outside of him and swooped up.  As he drew on even turns the leader had something left.  No problem, because I KNEW the Pletcher runner would go on with it.  But they dueled to the final 100 yards and I couldn't get by.  WOW.....another possible $80 down the drain as I was a good bet-no cash second.  The day continued in this manner in my next selection which was my "BET of the DAY."  Turf runner Hyper was sent out by owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, and had just been moved into the Chad Brown barn.  First of all, Hyper OWNS this course with a turf record locally of a perfect 4-for-4; and he loves this distance (10/5-3-0).  According to the Gulfstream Handicapper Chad Brown was 43% with runners first off a layoff, another 43% with Jose Lezcano riding, and 43% for the Ramseys.  As the race unfolded Lezcano took Hyper to the back, and it was my recollection he was more of a stalker, but these guys know what they are doing.....or so I thought.  Too far back, rallied too little, too late.  The opprotunity for another $70 lost as Hyper was third.  Sigh....... 

I did have a "Best of the Day" investment on the first of the graded stakes on the road to the Kentucky Derby from Santa Anita.  I thought that Goldencents was the best of the field in the Grade 3 Sham.  My only concern was that he apparently wants the lead and there was other speed in here, most especially a Bob Baffert-trained runner.  And I knew Baffert was not going to let Goldencents steal it.  But, I'd seen an interview with the connections of Goldencents and they were VERY high on him as a Kentucky Derby contender.  So if he was anywhere near as good as they thought, he should be able to stalk and finish.  And that is exactly how it played out.  As they turned for home, for about a 16th of a mile I wondered if Goldencents would go by, but then he found another gear and was easily best.  Finally, a cashed ticket!  

In the online newsletter, "The Handicapper's Edge," one of their writers had his year-end "awards."  Two of them were so me.....His "horse I missed all year" was Little Mike -and if you read his article below, that was my year with Little Mike, except that in every instance where Little Mike lost, I had bet him that day.  Little Mike's year-end win in the Breeders' Cup turf I even wrote in my analysis that he was certain to win at a big price because I was NOT betting him.....sigh.....and the story on Black Caviar was one of my highlight races of 2012.  

 

 For the day I had only the lone win on Goldencents, but I could only thing of the "what-if" scenarios had the three Gulfstream selections won as they "shoulld" have - missed opportunities totaling nearly $300.  But hey, "that's racing."