January 1, 2013 - Happy New Year!
Today was the start of a new month and a new year and in spite of scoring a solid 30% wins in the first month of the meet, I'm ready to do some damage! The next two months are filled with top stakes action, beginning with four stakes races today. I had originally intended to go out to the races for the first few and watch one of my favorite fillies, Kauai Katie, run live in the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes. But I reconsidered because I'm not sure how many more January 1 bowl game bonanzas I'll have to share with my son Brad (since he's soon moving to Orlando and now engaged). The football action had just begun when I lost the opener at Gulfstream where I'd invested in Beltram at 8/1 ... 3rd. Good bet at a good price, but no cash. In the second I was just DELIGHTED when the crowd did NOT send off the Todd Pletcher first-time starter, Verrazano as the favorite. I had doubled the investment and she was MUCH the best! WHOOOO HOOOOO! I hope the crowd in 2013 is as "dumb" as last season and I get to cash many tickets like this on Pletcher runners!
The third was the first of the four stakes races, it was the Spectacular Bid. In years gone by this kicked off a string of four races designed to get horses on the triple crown trail. First would be the six furlongs Spectacular Bid, then the seven furlong Hutcheson; next was the mile and a sixteenth Fountain of Youth; and then the nine furlong Florida Derby. But now the Spectacular Bid is just a $100K sprint stake, strictly for sprinters. My top pick was my top selection in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, Merit Man. In the BC he was forced to race on the lead, and I think he's better stalking. He led from the gate to the final jump that day (as I watched on the rail); so today I was hopeful that top rider Joel Rosario would let Brave Dave go to the lead, swing outside and stalk the leader before pouncing to win. But, this is why Rosario is the leading rider. As the gates opened he sprung to the front, beat all the others to the lead and wired the field! Two for three! Excellent!!!!!!!
I passed the fourth, where my second choice won, and then it was time for my "BET OF THE DAY" - the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes featuring multiple-graded stakes winner Kauai Katie. I only had two concerns....first, coming out of the Breeders' Cup, would she bounce off that effort as so many do? And second, would the lightly raced unbeaten Cor Cor go to the front and just not stop. But I honestly thought that (a) sprinting is what Kauai Katie is best at, and (b) she's the best sprinter of the sophomore fillies....if not of all sophomores. She broke sharply but when Cor Cor raced up to engage her, jockey John Velazquez let that one go by, and then eased outside to stalk her. When they hit the turn she was about a length off her and I was worried my fears of a theft would come true, but then Johnny V. asked and Kauai Katie was L-O-N-G gone. Her odds had floated up to 2/5, but as they left the gate somebody pounded her and she went off at a miserly 1-9. But it was the "being right" that made me feel good....and the fact that I'd now won three of four :)
In the 6th I had a hunch bet and decided not to invest any money. Several years ago I had seen Bsharpsonnat win a graded stakes at Calder, exiting a stakes win at Laurel. In the opening weeks of Gulfstream I scored with two turf winners out of that same Laurel race and was determined to make Bsharpsonnata a "Prime Time" bet the next time she ran. Well she showed up at Gulfstream - but in a dirt sprint, the Grade 2 Forward Gal. I stuck to my guns and she won in a thrilling finish, paying $8.40. After that she returned to turf and had a couple more turf stakes wins before retiring. So in handicapping the 6th today I noticed that 10-Play It Out Loud was a daughter of noneother than Bsharpsonnata. She'd never been on the turf, but none of these sophomores looked really special, so I listed her on top. Yes, she won, and at better than 9/1! WOW...... The 7th was an allowance race and I liked my selection based on handicapping, but also because of his name - Bradester. As I wrote in my analysis, I'm not sure how his connections prounounced it, but to me it looked like the nickname we call our son.....Brad-ster. The crowd also liked him - he was easily best, winning by widening daylight at even money..... my fourth win in a row!
The 8th was the Ginger Brew Stakes. This race was set for a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. I was not a fan of any of the program top contenders, though the favorite did look good, but was marooned on the outside. I was intrigued by a filly making her first start in North America for top Team Valor trainer Graham Motion, #6, Tuttipaesi. According to the Daily Racing Form he scored at an amazing 41% with horses making their North American debut at a rate of $3.01 return for every $2 invested. Her program odds of 12/1 seemed way out of line. She broke slowly and bobbled somewhat, and was quickly trailing the field. Jockey Alan Garcia gave her time to settle and I thought to myself that Euro runners are always at their best running late. As they approached the final turn she was gaining ground, but was stuck in traffic and with a lot of work to do. But then a seam opened and man, she exploded through. She inhaled the leaders and drew off late. Best part of the story.....she went off at 8/1! AWESOME! My fifth winner in a row; my third stakes winner of the day; and a return of $50!
I had not added up the numbers, but now I was certain I was going to make a solid profit for the day. I passed the Gulfstream Park Derby - my top pick had scratched and my third choice beat my second choice at 3/1. In the final race I was sent off at a big price again, at better than 10/1. Settled in near the back and never made any moves. So for the day I was five for seven and had a profit of an even $75! No racing tomorrow - since we raced today as a special holiday program - but we'll be back at it again on Thursday!
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