Gulfstream 2012-13

Wednesday / Thursday - January 16 / 17

Seconditis

A week I'd hoped would start off strong to build momentum turned out to be disappointing with man "so close, but not a winner" finishes.  The highlight to the week is most certainly going to be Saturday's Florida Million Card....... 

But when I handicapped the Wednesday and Thursday programs I thought I had some pretty strong plays, and bet accordingly.  The disappointing finishes began with the first race of the week......Crown Polis was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for Kirk Ziadie; led into the stretch and was long gone as the 8/5 favorite - caught inside the final 100 yards, 2nd.  In the very Next race Red Hills was sent off as the even money favorite; deservedly so after having won SEVEN of his last nine races.  But my third pick took the early lead and crawled through opening fractions of :50.4 and 1:15.2 and was long gone.....2nd, again.  I went against the favorite in my third selection in the 4th.  The favorite romped by open lengths, I was a distant, yes, you guessed it....2nd.  In the 6th I backed Norway Star.  He was co-favorites with Demi Tasse who led gate to wire while Norway Star finished - 2nd.  

I had posted on Facebook that my "BEST" of the day was in the 8th where I thought Houston Bull would score for trainer Peter Walder.  Finally, my pick did not disappoint and he was an easy winner as the post-time favorite.  I collected a cool $30 :)  

But in the final two races I was non-threatening 3rd and 6th.  So as the Wednesday card closed I had finished 7 / 1 - 4 - 1.  Ughhhh, four runner-up finishes!

Thursday, certainly would bring better times, I was due, or so I thought.  Just as in the first betting selection on Wednesday, my first choice on Thursday opened up as they turned for home.  I was certain (tripled the bet) that the Todd Pletcher-trained three-year-old first time starter, duh they always win, was long gone.  He appeared to be as they hit the furlong marker and then here came a late runner with momentum.  PHOTO FINISH.  Still, after the live finish and the first slo-mo look, I was pretty confident I'd won.....no, SECOND.  OMG!  

I was CERTAIN that now my luck would turn and the sheet would balance when in the next selection on the day Responsive Eye drew even on the turf turning for home and opened up.  A WINNER!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  

The fifth was today's Gulfstream "Best."  Bernie's Best had made huge improvements with each start and in his last start when he was second-best, the show horse had come back to score.  It was a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and he sat about four off the leaders turning for home.  He navigated into the clear as they turned for home and as he accelerated he was cut off!  The rider had to take up and he literally came to a dead stop, all momentum lost.  He got going again at the 16th pole but the damage was done as the front runner drew off easily.....3rd.  WOW, if it wasn't for bad racing luck this week, I'd have no luck at all!  To add insult to injury I won the next race and Magic Melissa paid $9....oh no, I didn't bet it, I had passed the race.  WOW-squared.  The last three races at Gulfstream --> 7th (at 15/1), 3rd as the 9/5 favorite (Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play on Jamie Ness for a Midwest Thoroughbreds horse...sigh....) and then 11th at 9/2.  I thought I could at least feel good about racing in general if my last selection of the day, the 7th at Santa Anita won.  The feature out west was a first level allowance, and as a Thursday feature would not draw much attention - NORMALLY.  But today was far from normal.  It was the second start of the much-heralded little sister to champion Zenyatta, Eblouissante.  The crowd immediately bet her down to 1/9 and as they approached the gate she was still at this skimpy price.  Some "value players" must have figured they would cash in on the mis-allighed odds and they pounded another horse, allowing Eblouissante's odds to float up to an inflated 1/2.  The original 1/9 was what she should have been as an overbet favorite.  1/5 would have been fair odds considering how she matched up and 2/5 would have been a nice present, but 1-2?  Thank you value players for not playing the obvious winner.  She was easily best and I scored to close the day!  

Watch the replay!

So through the first two days of the week I am 14 / 3 - 5 - 3, that's 11 of 14 I ran first, second, or third, nearly 80% so I'm handicapping very well; and if any of the five runner-ups had been first I'd be at my typical 30% winners.  But of course that is NOT what has happened.  I'm hopeful that Friday and especially Saturday the odds turn in my favor!