January Winds Down - A New Week

The day started with disappointment when I discovered my "BET of the DAY" had scratched in the 4th race.  

And as it turned out, this probably cost me a profit on the day, albeit a small profit.  Starship would have probably gone off at 1/5, but that would have earned me a $6 profit, and for the day I was down a mere $5!  It's the little things.  Of the five selections I had left on the card I ran second once, third THREE times, and in the next to last pick on the day I had my lone winner.  But in the ninth, a turf sprint, my pick, Skylander, was allowed to go off at 3/1.  He had pressed an extrememly wicked pace last out, and if he ran to those fractions he looked to alone on the lead today.  He was, and he was gone wire-to-wire.  The $40 collection covered all but the last minimum wager on the day.  Tomorrow we finish off the month of January ...... anxious to add up the numbers!

 

Sunday January 27 - Strong Finish To Good Week

Today was another multiple win day at Gulfstream and provided a winning profit to finish off the fourth week here at Gulfstream.  It appeared to another frustrating day as in the opening two races I AGAIN had the short-priced favorites who AGAIN failed to deliver.  Whipsaw City came up the rail in the 2nd, going five furlongs on the turf, and then couldn't get by the front runner, and my second choice who surged late to win.....3rd.  Then in the 5th I had the odds-on Poised To A Tee sprinting, second best....wow.  But then it was time for my "Best" of the day in the 6th.  It was a nine furlong turf route for sophomores.  Tokyo Time ran a field best 80 speed figure and was six clear of the show horse in her last....behind a runner who came right back to win.  Javier Castellano had the mount for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey.  The gate sprung open and Tokyo Time went right to the front.  He opened up early and never looked back; in fact through the lane he extended his lead with a powerful finish as M-U-C-H the best.  

In the next three races I had a Todd Pletcher runner in each.  If you'd asked me, I would told you that the most likely winner would have been in the 9th, with the second most likely being in the 7th....and by far the least likely in the 8th.  Want to guess?  Right, it was in the 8th that I scored.  And here's another lesson for those of you who may not have gotten the memo on Todd Pletcher.......it doesn't matter what the circumstances, you simply CANNOT GUESS when to back Pletcher and when not to at Gulfstream in the winter.  This is a spectacular case in point.  In the 7th and 9th it was 3-year-old Maiden Special sprints - a staple of the Pletcher winners, and both disappointed in spite of the multiple 40% win stats provided by the Gulfstream Park Handicapper's 40% Club.  The book, which has been helpful in pointing out multiple winners at the meet, details that the ONLY category where Pletcher is not at his best is on the turf, and especially in turf routes.  So the 8th was an entry level allowance going 1 3/8 miles on the turf!  An obvious chance to beat a Pletcher runner.  But, as I've said repeatedly, you cannot guess, and you may get a price here.  Sure enough, Seanchi was 3/1 in the program, but left the gate at 4/1!  He went right to the front, held the field at bay going around the first two turns and down the backstretch.  When they hit the far turn and the field began to accelerate, he found another gear, separated from the field and was gone!  Paid an amazing $10.40......whooooo hoooooo!  

Missed in the Sweetest Chant Stakes for sophomore fillies in a three-way photo, when my pick, the improving Caroline Thomas (#4) was just outfinished on the wire.......

Then in the finale, the first thing that caught my eye as I scanned through the past performances was the name of the #7 horse - Keri Keri.  Though not the same spelling, the name was that of my wonderful sister-in-law, Kari.....my wife's identical twin, and let me tell you, they are indeed identical.  But, as I handicapped the race it was clear that she was a most likely winner.  She had earned a field-best 75 speed figure in a Maiden Special turf event at Delaware this summer in her last and was dropping in class for a first time tag today by trainer Michael Matz.  The only question I had was how much stronger a MSW contest at Delaware was compared to a maiden claimer at Gulfstream.  But the others in the field did not look to have legitimate chances.  I doubled the bet and as they turned for home she drew up along side the other favorite on the board.  But the difference, as called out by track announce Larry Colmus, was that the filly on the lead was being driven by her jockey, and Keri Keri was under a hand ride by my jockey Joe Rocco.  He shook the reins ever so slightly and she was GONE!  Best part of the story, she was allowed to leave the gate at better than 2/1 and paid $6.60!  My double investment led to a return of well over $30 and a clear profit for the day.  A great finish to a good week of racing.  I will be limited in my on track appearances this week as my Mom flies in on Thursday and then Brad, Lauren, and Julie all arrive on Friday for a weekend with their grandma.....highlighted by a Saturday night out at the Broadway musical, "Wicked!"

 

January 26

I had a great day at Gulfstream today, with one exception....that being that I did not cash any tickets on any price horses.  For the day I was an outstanding 9-for-27 with my handicapping selections;  Cashed on ALL FOUR of my "BEST" bets, including my two "BET OF THE DAY" selections.  So, I couldn't have asked for more, except to win money!  

The day kicked off when I won the opener at Tampa, with a triple investment, right after picking up a free polo shirt!  I got it because I got a reserved seat.  Ironically there wasn't a turf race until about three hours into the day, so when I went up there there were several people in the row.....and later when I went to go there the entire row was full - just not worth the hassle to watch a single race; still, free shirt.....whoooo hoooooo!  

I missed in two races before scoring at Aqueduct with Dave Liftin's "Best."  Transparent was floated W-A-Y out into the middle of the track as they hit the backstretch and I thought to myself, he better be MUCH the best to win this race!  Drew off by six widening lengths - truly much the best!  After missing twice at Gulfstream I scored the first of three races in a row.  I won at Tampa with Kentucky Hero on the turf.  He was inside with no where to run, but jockey Daniel Centeno came off the rail, split horses at the furlong marker and drew clear as much the best.  Then I scored with my first "BET of the DAY" at the Fair Grounds.  Daisy Devine is a Grade 1 winner and she'd wired a listed stakes field as much the best here in her last.  She had the rail and was the lone speed again.  I was just a touch leery because off of such a big effort she might not be as razor sharp today.  Still, even if she dropped to a  B+ effort, especially as the lone speed, I figured she'd be gone.  She was tiring late, but was comfortably in front....I WIN!  

In the third race of the sequence I scored at Gulfstream with Close Hatches.  Trainer Bill Mott rarely wins with first time starters, but this filly had blistered a workout in :59.1 for five furlongs - from the gate.  She looked to have enormous talent, and jockey Joel Rosario has been on several solid wins for Mott.  Close Hatches was about seven off the leaders as they hit the far turn and then, wow, what a dynamic move!  She ran by the field while wide as though they were standing still.  I think she has a stakes future.....and maybe in her next start!  I was close, without winning in six races until it was time for THE BET of the DAY, the Grade 2 Forward Gal, and my pick Kauai Katie.  She had been my favorite juvenile sprinter last summer and I thought she had a chance to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint against the boys, but they opted to try two turns for the first time.....4th.  She came back and was featured in the Grade 3 Old Hat on New Year's Day here.  I wanted to come out to see her run live, but my son Brad told me he was looking forward to watching football with me all day, and I knew there won't be many of those days left, so I stayed home.  When Kauai Katie walked with that race I told Kim that January 26 was circled on the calendar as I WOULD be on track to see her run in the Grade 2 Forward Gal.  Got a good look at her in the paddock, as well as "the man" Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.  The gates opened and there would be no rating, or seeing how the race unfolded.  She was easily in front and won handily.  

Missed at Tampa, but then I came right back with my "Best" at Santa Anita.  It was their version of the "Sunshine Millions" with six stakes races on the card.  My pick in the Valentine's Dancer - a mile on the turf - was Tiz Flirtatious.  She sat mid-pack to the far turn, moved wide, and then exerted her class to draw off late.....collected nearly $40!  AWESOME!  
I wasn't surprised when Shanghai Bobby lost in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes;  he was for sure the juvenile champion, but now it's time to go long against horses that are far better bred for the classic distances.  Still, he was only 3/5 of a second off the track record, but he was second best to the Calder runner, Itsmyluckyday - who had won the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day.  I closed out the day by winning the co-feature at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 Santa Monica with Teddy's Promise.  She'd won at this 7 furlong distance in a Grade 1 here, but that was in 2011.  Her "A" game would win here handily, and she produced that today.  

The last win of the day came in the very next selection, my final on the day, a maiden-special at the Fair Grounds when Skinny was easily best - I had tripled the bet :)  The weather had been great, the racing exciting, and I had 33% winners....can't ask for much more!

 

Friday - January 25

Seriously?  How Many Times Can I Have The Lead And Lose?

Yes, the headlines says it all.....The day started in the second when the even money favorite, and my choice Kiowa cruised to the lead at the top of the lane....... 

In the very next race I had Bin Elusive.  He was the 8/5 favorite and looked to be long gone.... even in the slo-mo photo finish I thought I might have hung on.....no....caught again.  

But I KNEW in he third I was home free....I mean after all, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, three-year-old first time starter, the 1-5 favorite......long gone, right?  Guess again.....sigh... 

I finished the day running 4th at 9/1, 3rd as the 3/5 favorite, and 5th at 5/2 after a slow start in the 9th.  But then lo and behold, in the final race of the day, I actually crossed the wire first!  YES!  Stars Collide just missed in a maiden claiming event on the turf identical to today's finale.  Johnny V got Stars Collide home at 2/1 and I salvaged a little pride cashing the lone winning ticket on the day.

 

New Week - WINNING DAY!

Thursday January 24

I almost missed it!  On Wednesday Churchill Downs announced their spring stakes schedule, which included Grade 1 Stephen Foster night on June 15th.  That's significant because when I was at the Kentucky Derby last spring I told all my Louisville relatives that I would be back for a "Downs After Dark" program this year, probably the Foster program.  Kim and I have just booked the Alaskan trip and that comes a week after the Foster date so I was getting ticket information, emailing everyone, etc.  I sat down and happened to look at the time on the computer - 1:09 pm.....uh oh, I've missed the opener at Gulfstream and the 2nd race is about to go off.  AND, I had not looked at my selections, but I was fairly certain I had an early pick.  I quickly opened up twinspires.com and printed my picks - indeed, my "BEST" of the Day was in the second and it was now two minutes to post time!  Just as they were loading into the gate I got the bet down!  My top selection was Todd Pletcher's first time starter in the Maiden Special Weight sprint, the second race on the card.  But here's what was unique about the race.....typically Pletcher's debut runners are sophomores.  But today it was a MSW for four-year-olds and up!  I stuck with my pick because of the Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club angles (dirt sprints-40%, John Velazquez-43%); and the fact that in spite of the late debut, it seemed to me that Pletcher had some confidence in this $300K purchase by running him in special weight conditions.  As they hit the far turn it was my pick, Cross Traffic dueling on the lead, and the rest of the field at least half a dozen lengths back.  Their heads turned for home and it was the moment of truth.....this is where the Pletcher runners always find another gear if they are going to win - and Cross Traffic drew off!  With my triple investment I collected over $25!  A great start to the day and week!  

I had picks in the next two races as well.  In the 3rd I backed New Englander again - he had lost in the closest of photo finishes two Saturdays back and was a Jamie Ness 40% GP Club play.  He went off as the co-favorite at 2/1, was right there turning for home and then had no late punch....4th.  The last selection in the three race sequence was in a sophomore maiden claimer on the turf.  It looked like there wasn't anyone who would want the lead, so I selected #3-Zane.  This was largely a selection based on the jockey, as on Saturday in the Sunshine Millions Turf there had been no pace setter and Johnny V went right to the front and stole it.  I thought he'd do the same today.  But as they left the gate and headed into the first turn Velazquez had Zane sitting off the slow pace.  But when they turned for home he pushed to the lead.  At the 16th pole he was joined by a runner up the rail and one on the outside, both of which looked to have momentum, but Velazquez wasn't done.  He worked hard on Zane and the response was immediate as he battled to the wire and edged clear to score.  And, the best part......9/2 on the board, and paid $11.40!  I collected nearly $30 and was guaranteed to profit for the day.  

The last two selections on the day were right there - Chee was 2/1 and was fighting for the lead through the far turn, but faded.  He re-rallied through the stretch but was no match for the winner, who was my second choice at a price - 2nd.  And in my last bet, I had Chosen Empire to steal the turf race in the 9th.  He was clear by four lengths heading into the far turn under Joe Bravo but couldn't last, 4th at 5/1.  For the day, a solid 40% and in the black for the bottom line!

Monday January 21 - MLK Day

Special Holiday Racing Card!

BIG WINS!  PROFIT!

Good way to end the week

I finished off the racing week with two more wins at Gulfstream, and like Friday it was a solid profitable adventure.  In the first two selections on the day I ran 3rd in both, and both were with the favorite.  Man, can't seem to catch a break on the chalk these days!  In my next I had Jade's Ranbow at a solid 3/1.  My second choice was on the lead turning for home on the grass and 'Rainbow had the momentum and the rail.  But at the 16th pole when he should have gone on with it, he hung.....second by a narrow margin.  My fourth pick also missed when unable to overcome the wide draw in the 12 post.  And so any hope of a winning day fell to my last two selections, including my "BEST" of the day in a claiming event on the grass.  

Much like the Stopshoppingmaria story from earlier in the week, I thought this was great spotting of a horse who'd lost his confidence by trainer Todd Pletcher.  Now, on the one hand you could say, "Duh, picking Pletcher isn't any great handicapping feat."  But I would argue, and be supported by the fact that he went off at nearly 5/2.  The horse was Finale, and he'd won his very first turf attempt as a two-year-old in the summer of 2011.  His next start came in the Continental Mile at Monmouth and I remembered seeing him destroy that field in literally a canter.  I made a note to myself that he might be a Breeders' Cup horse!  In his next start he annexed the Grade 3 Summer Stakes at Woodbine as my "best."  On to the Breeders' Cup in November 2011, when we were there on the rail :)  

Finale went off as the favorite that day, but was in a wide post position, got jostled and bounced around, and was wide into the stretch.  Though he finished 7th, he was only beaten four lengths.  He returned to disappoint in a couple of stakes - the first was here last winter when I went against him.  He faced Summer Front that day, who has gone on to be a multiple graded stakes winner, and that one had the conditioning edge.  But then there were no excuses.  Off a layoff he'd been the pace setter before weakening in his last two starts this fall in Grade 3 events.  So today, like Stopshoppingmaria, I though Pletcher was putting him in a spot where he'd most likely win....gain some confidence....and then he could begin to rebuild through the allowance ranks and then into stakes.  The difference was that unlike 'Maria who'd been entered in allowance spots, Finale was in for a $40K tag.  Still, that's a pretty hefty price to pay for a horse who might be off-form, so I figured Pletcher knew it was a soft spot and a calculated gamble that no one would claim him.  In addition, the Gulfstream Handicapper indicated that Todd Pletcher was a solid 47% with class droppers and 43% with John Velazuez riding.  Too much evidence to ignore......Finale made a wide bid on the turn, had all the momentum and drew off through the lane!  He paid a remarkable $6.80 and with my triple investment I cashed for over $50!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  

My final selection of the day came in the last race on the card and it was another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club selection.  Kadaya had scored earlier in the meet for trainer Bob Hess who wins with 45% of his allowance runners and I'd made him my second choice - bad move!  Today they were going the marathon distance of 11 1/2 furlongs.  Most handicappers figure that this long distance favors the deep closers, but the fact is that speed - or ability to be close to the front is usually a big advantage.  So it was with disappointment that I saw Kadaya drop back, back, back and nearly trail the field the first time around the track.  In fact, as they approached the far turn not only was he not in the TV picture, but the little chicklets that track the runners across the bottom of the screen/tote board didn't even have the number 7 visible!  But as the other horses hit the turn track announcer Larry Colmus called out that Kedaya was gathering momentum.  By the time they straightened for home he was a bit wide but had all the momentum!  And by the 16th pole he'd inhaled the front runners and was gone to victory.  He paid $5.60 so I collected nearly $30 on my double investment.  Two-for-six on the day and a profit of nearly $30!  No racing on Wednesday (because of today's holiday card).....but we'll be back at it on Thursday!

 

Sunday January 20

Two More Wins Including Today's BEST!

Normally Sunday is the end of the racing week, but with the holiday tomorrow there will be a special card for racing on Monday.  My first score of the day came with yet another Todd Pletcher runner, Nevada.  This colt had debuted at Saratoga and was a best-of-the-rest second behind the odds-on favorite that day, future graded stakes winner Overanalyze.  Nevada was third as the odds-on favorite in his next when he was too far back and was late getting into full stride.  You could make a case to toss the next two misses, again as the favorite, with the next-to-last being over the Keeneland synthetic track at seven furlongs and the last here, but going a mile and a sixteenth.  The drop into a $25K maiden claimer and the return to sprinting on the main track seemed to me to be just the cure he needed.  Still, such a precipitious drop led me to only double the bet.  On the turn he exploded in a wink of the eye and was quickly double digits in front.  That's the kind of talent he'd flashed at Saratoga.  Look for him to climb up the allowance ladder and maybe try listed stakes this spring.  

After that I ran fourth twice and third twice - one was with the star-crossed Ninja Blade, who I wrote I was betting as much because I had a soft spot for him as his legitimate chances.  Should have played the Pletcher runner, again I didn't get the memo....sigh.  And when I did back the Pletcher maiden Orient Moon ran third.  But the "BEST" of the day was yet another Todd Pletcher horse, Charming Kitten.  

Typically it is unusual to find a Ken & Sarah Ramsey home-bred in the Pletcher stable.  They are not big clients of his.  But in this case, Charming Kitten was his colt to train.  The feature on the Sunday card was the Kitten's Joy Stakes for sophomores going 1 1/16th mile on the turf.  The race was named for champion Kitten's Joy who was also a Ramsey home-bred.  It just seemed fitting if Charming Kitten would win for them.  But in addition, he was clearly the best horse in the field.  He had won his debut at this distance over the Spa turf in upstate New York, then was third beaten only 1 1/2 lengths in his first try against winners, the Grade 2 With Anticipation.  The winner and runner-up both came back to win graded stakes, with the winner - Balance the Books - being one of the favorites in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  The runner-up came back to win the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland over their synthetic main track - which was also Charming Kitten's next start.  I felt you could toss that effort as it seemed obvious he didn't want any part of the main track.  Off a short break he returned to action here at Gulfstream in the Dania Beach.  I thought he had a legitimate excuse, in addition to the layoff, in that he broke from post ten and was four wide turning for home.  Only beaten a half length I thought today he'd rebound in a big way.  He was a prime time investment for me and did not disappoint....topped off a solid 2-for-5 day of handicapping!

 

Saturday January 19

SUNSHINE MILLIONS DAY

Disappointing on track - Well done in simulcast world

As the headline suggests, it was a very disappointing day on track, offset somewhat by a good day of racing selections around the country.....the numbers for the day:   

Simulcast Selections:  19/6-3-2 

Gulfstream Selections:  10/1-3-2

So it wasn't like I was WAY off on my selections, just wasn't able to score with them.  Let's get the "bad news" out of the way first and finish on the positive spin......I missed in the opener when a Todd Pletcher returnee, Palace Malice was second best to a sharp returning runner;  another Pletcher runner, Unitarian was third in a MSW event, usually a staple of his winning runners;  in the first of the Sunshine Millions stakes, Emma's Encore (a Grade 1 winner) looked to have a pace advantage as the lone finisher in a field full of speed.  Maybe it was the off-track, or the wide trip, but she ran down everyone, except the winner who pressed the pace and drew off through the stretch.....second again.  In the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Romacaca was sent off as the favorite and controlled the pace from the gate into the lane before being caught late - 3rd.  My upset pick in the Distaff ran to her 12/1 odds, finishing last.  Little Drama surged late in the Sunshine Millions Sprint, third.  My best of the day was the Sunshine Millions Turf with Doubles Partner.  Todd Pletcher was asked on camera about the less-than-firm turf and he commented he wasn't worried about the surface, but was worried about the lack of pace.  How prophetic as my second choice, Teaks North went right to the front, loose on an easy lead and was easily best as Doubles Partner was well clear of everyone, but the winner ---> 2nd again.  The ultimate letdown came in the Classic.  I never, ever bet a Kathy Ritvo trained horse, her numbers are terrible.  And I look forward to betting against her runners.  BUT, top thoroughbred Mucho Macho Man overcomes her conditioning when he runs here.  And with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith flying across the country to ride the runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Classic I thought he was much the best.  They hit the far turn with the 2/5 favorite pressing the pace and he stopped.  Literally, stopped.  He walked across the finish line "eased" officially.  Later Ritvo's comment was "he is fine, but must have not cared for the off track."  Interesting as she was asked this before the race and said on camera that he "loved the mud" and had "worked very well" in the mud.  Typical, she is just clueless.  The Gulfstream day finished when another Pletcher maiden faded to 12th.  The only positive Gulfstream event was an interesting story.  In the 2nd, the race was scheduled for 1 7/16 on the turf, and for some reason they changed it to a mile and a half - what does cutting the race back a 16th of a mile do?  What ever.  I looked at the board and the entry was odds-on.  My horse appeared to be scratched, the 3, but I had seen his name scroll across the bottom.  Oh....he's part of the entry!  And the other half of the entry was my second choice!  And the scratched horse was my third choice!  So, I doubled the bet, since my 2nd choice was coupled with Amira's Prince; and then tripled the bet as the only other horse I liked was scratched.  The "Prince" ran away with it, and I congratulated myself for being so smart to triple the bet!  It was early in the day and I still had high hopes for a big day :)  

 In the simulcast world..... I scored twice at Tampa in back-to-back races.  In the fifth I liked Fleur de Lily on the turf.  She moved wide through the final turn and surged late to be up in time......then in the very next race Learn the Lingo was MUCH the best, giving me my second score at the Oldsmar oval, both with double investments.  

 

Out west at Santa Anita my BEST of the day was in the opener, in a maiden claimer.  Yet again proving that they pay on the winner no matter if it's a Grade 1 feature or a maiden claimer.  Prettypriceygirl not only looked best on paper, but her connections scored at a 57% rate when moving turf to dirt and top jockey Garret Gomez was a high percentage jockey for the barn.  Still, as they turned for home she had a lot, A LOT of work to do.  In the final 16th she found another gear and was J-U-S-T up in time!  WHEW!!!!  

And I scored again when Jubliant Girl confirmed her affinity for the downhill turf sprint course - I LOVE to handicap those races - when she scored at a generous 2/1. 

Immediately following the Jubliant Girl win I scored in back-to-back Fair Grounds selections.  Much like at Gulfstream where it was Sunshine Millions Day, in New Orleans it was the Kickoff to the Derby Day - ironically the day I was on track last January.  The highlight that day was getting to spend time with my favorite announcer John G. Dooley and with hottie Katie Mikolay, racing analyst...... 

My "BEST" of the day was in the 11th, an allowance-optional claiming spot.  Triumph and Song had broken dead last in his previous race, his first off a layoff.  He rallied to come within 2 1/2 lengths of the winner and figured to improve second off the shelf, but what appealed to me most was this....the winner was the highly talented Bind, and the runner-up was Ynaguska Storm who came right back to air with a 101 speed figure.  Triumph and Song was easily best.....whooo hoooo!  

And in race twelve I doubled the bet on EZ Jazz - who exited the same Bind race, and three of his last races would beat this field like a drum.......wire-to-wire to end the day with three straight wins and salvage some semblence of handicapping ability.  

The big day concluded when Kim and I went to the arena for the season opener of our Florida Panthers.  They raised the banner for their Southeast Division championship and then cruised to a 5-1 victory!

 

Friday January 18

Two-For-Five - PROFITABLE DAY!

Today I had a WINNING day!  I only had five selections on the Friday card, and only two of them were added-money investments....and those were the ones I scored on!  Good Girl Grace couldn't produce for me as the 8/5 favorite in my first betting race, but the fifth was my "BEST" of the day.  My selection was the Todd Pletcher-trained, Michael Repole-owned Stopshoppingmaria.  In August of 2011 she debuted second behind future champion My Miss Aurelia.  She confirmed her talent by scoring in her second start in what turned out to be the fastest speed figure for a two-year-old filly.  She took on My Miss Aurelia in her third start when she started as the favorite in the Grade 1 Frizette.  Second again to the champion, she went to the Breeders' Cup and ran second, again, but this time in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf!  Since then she had faltered in stakes races until earlier this meet Pletcher dropped her into a nw1x allowance spot where she scored.  Today she was moving into a nw2x allowance spot.  Pletcher scores with 47% of his starters stepping up in class and 45% with second time starters at the meet.  Stopshoppingmaria was under a hand ride from the gate.  She dueled on the lead while WELL clear of the field as they spun out of the far turn, and then drew off late.  I collected nearly $30 on my best bet!  Whoo hooo!  

 I missed with back-to-back price plays when second at 4/1 in another turf sprint, and then well beaten at 8/1.  But the final race of the day was on the turf, a maiden claimer.  My selection, at double the investment was Don't Cry For Me.  Chad Brown is a rising star in the Thoroughbred racing world as a trainer.  Maidens under his care at Saratoga are automatic bets according to the Saratoga Handicapper, written by Jim Mazur.  At Gulfstream he is also effective with his maiden runners, but Mazur writes in his Gulfstream Handicapper that he's far more effective with his maiden claimers.....and such was the case here.  Don't Cry For Me was far and away the best of this group and I collected an even $30 when the crown let her go off at 2/1!  Two-for-five on the day and a solid profit!  That's how I want to head into the big Sunshine Millions Day tomorrow!

Wednesday / Thursday - January 16 / 17

Seconditis

A week I'd hoped would start off strong to build momentum turned out to be disappointing with man "so close, but not a winner" finishes.  The highlight to the week is most certainly going to be Saturday's Florida Million Card....... 

But when I handicapped the Wednesday and Thursday programs I thought I had some pretty strong plays, and bet accordingly.  The disappointing finishes began with the first race of the week......Crown Polis was a Gulfstream 40% Club play for Kirk Ziadie; led into the stretch and was long gone as the 8/5 favorite - caught inside the final 100 yards, 2nd.  In the very Next race Red Hills was sent off as the even money favorite; deservedly so after having won SEVEN of his last nine races.  But my third pick took the early lead and crawled through opening fractions of :50.4 and 1:15.2 and was long gone.....2nd, again.  I went against the favorite in my third selection in the 4th.  The favorite romped by open lengths, I was a distant, yes, you guessed it....2nd.  In the 6th I backed Norway Star.  He was co-favorites with Demi Tasse who led gate to wire while Norway Star finished - 2nd.  

I had posted on Facebook that my "BEST" of the day was in the 8th where I thought Houston Bull would score for trainer Peter Walder.  Finally, my pick did not disappoint and he was an easy winner as the post-time favorite.  I collected a cool $30 :)  

But in the final two races I was non-threatening 3rd and 6th.  So as the Wednesday card closed I had finished 7 / 1 - 4 - 1.  Ughhhh, four runner-up finishes!

Thursday, certainly would bring better times, I was due, or so I thought.  Just as in the first betting selection on Wednesday, my first choice on Thursday opened up as they turned for home.  I was certain (tripled the bet) that the Todd Pletcher-trained three-year-old first time starter, duh they always win, was long gone.  He appeared to be as they hit the furlong marker and then here came a late runner with momentum.  PHOTO FINISH.  Still, after the live finish and the first slo-mo look, I was pretty confident I'd won.....no, SECOND.  OMG!  

I was CERTAIN that now my luck would turn and the sheet would balance when in the next selection on the day Responsive Eye drew even on the turf turning for home and opened up.  A WINNER!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  

The fifth was today's Gulfstream "Best."  Bernie's Best had made huge improvements with each start and in his last start when he was second-best, the show horse had come back to score.  It was a mile and a sixteenth on the turf and he sat about four off the leaders turning for home.  He navigated into the clear as they turned for home and as he accelerated he was cut off!  The rider had to take up and he literally came to a dead stop, all momentum lost.  He got going again at the 16th pole but the damage was done as the front runner drew off easily.....3rd.  WOW, if it wasn't for bad racing luck this week, I'd have no luck at all!  To add insult to injury I won the next race and Magic Melissa paid $9....oh no, I didn't bet it, I had passed the race.  WOW-squared.  The last three races at Gulfstream --> 7th (at 15/1), 3rd as the 9/5 favorite (Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play on Jamie Ness for a Midwest Thoroughbreds horse...sigh....) and then 11th at 9/2.  I thought I could at least feel good about racing in general if my last selection of the day, the 7th at Santa Anita won.  The feature out west was a first level allowance, and as a Thursday feature would not draw much attention - NORMALLY.  But today was far from normal.  It was the second start of the much-heralded little sister to champion Zenyatta, Eblouissante.  The crowd immediately bet her down to 1/9 and as they approached the gate she was still at this skimpy price.  Some "value players" must have figured they would cash in on the mis-allighed odds and they pounded another horse, allowing Eblouissante's odds to float up to an inflated 1/2.  The original 1/9 was what she should have been as an overbet favorite.  1/5 would have been fair odds considering how she matched up and 2/5 would have been a nice present, but 1-2?  Thank you value players for not playing the obvious winner.  She was easily best and I scored to close the day!  

Watch the replay!

So through the first two days of the week I am 14 / 3 - 5 - 3, that's 11 of 14 I ran first, second, or third, nearly 80% so I'm handicapping very well; and if any of the five runner-ups had been first I'd be at my typical 30% winners.  But of course that is NOT what has happened.  I'm hopeful that Friday and especially Saturday the odds turn in my favor!

 Sunday January 13

After winning a single race on the Gulfstream card Saturday I felt pretty comfortable that today would be a "bounce-back" day with multiple wins.  In the opener it was my "BEST" of the day.  My analysis read:  

Before the NFL playoffs - which were GREAT games all weekend by the way - started I was able to watch this race live on HRTV.  TONS the best.......HORRAY, I KNEW I'd have a good day I thought :)  

Later I checked the replays on the other five races - 3rd at 9/5, 3rd at 2/1, off the board, 4th at 3/1 and then in the feature race the Grade 3 Hal's Hope I had the winner.  I wrote in my initial analysis, "....I know I will regret this, and I'm fully aware of the perilous waters I'd be diving into, but I am backing 6-Casaba (5/2) today.  I have to finally face facts that I can't hold his flop in the Pa Derby against him because he personally let me down.  He has won three straight stakes, earned triple Beyers in all three and is on a roll....."  But as I went to check on my second pick I noticed that Casaba's works prior to his last two had been topped with a sharp workout and today he was coming off a slow work.  Hmmmm.  Then it occurred to me that I had picked Delegation in their last meeting when then went 1 1/16th mile off Delegation running third in the Breeders' Cup Mile.  The Hal's Hope was at a mile!  So I switched the order and made Delegation the pick.  He faded to last.....who rallied up the rail to win?  Yes, Casaba - sigh......seems a fitting way to end the weekend.  Back at it on Wednesday as we head into the second half of the month.  

On a non-racing note, I am so excited, though it will mean a much more hectic schedule for me - the NHL lockout is over and we are back on the ice!  And sure enough, next Saturday, one of the biggest days of the winter at Gulfstream - the Sunshine Millions - is now Opening Night for the Panthers!  Gonna be a big day!

 

Saturday January 12

Fort Lauderdale Stakes Day

I had made plans to join our good friends Caryl and Kevin Hanlon at the races today, as they were bringing friends and family to the races.  It was a wonderful Saturday afternoon to be at the races with superb weather, great racing, and I scored in over 30% of my selections.  The only thing I felt bad about was that I only had one winner at Gulfstream out of ten selections.  But, to be fair, the three "professional experts" that handicap for the track had one win, one win, and the "top handicapper" Ron Nicoletti, had ZERO....so, as I said in the video above, "I guess I'm as good as they are!"  But the one thing I will remember more than anything about this Saturday at the races is that a combined difference of a few feet separated me from a HUGE profit on the day....... 

So, let's get to the stories:  

We had no longer got settled in our seats when I had to head inside to make two simulcast wagers.  The second at Tampa was an easy-peasy-pie by the winner as Cheechako drew off through the lane under mild hand urging.......

And less than ten minutes later it was time for the co-feature at Aqueduct, the 1 1/2 mile Coyote Lakes Stakes.  In their last meeting, at this track and distance, Wayward Sailor and Ea had engaged in a duel from the six furlong marker to the 12 furlong marker and Ea could not get by.  But that was Ea's first start off a break and today he had a big jockey upgrade to the nation's leading rider, Ramon Dominguez.  The crowd wasn't fooled as they made Wayward Sailor the 5/2 second choice and Ea the 6/5 choice.  About half way down the backside they were head-to-head and the duel was on.  But it didn't last long because as they hit the far turn Ea found another gear and left the Sailor in the slop.  

They posted the prices at about 1 pm, and it wasn't until two hours later that I'd see one of my horses in the winner's circle again.  In the second at Gulfstream, my first selection on track I ran 3rd as the 8/5 favorite.  The winner who paid over $20 would have been easy to spot had you looked back through her pp's, but I didn't dig deep enough.  In the third I was on the rail to watch GP Handicapper 40% Club selection New Englander run away to a win for trainer Jamie Ness.  He moved to the lead handily on the turn, drew clear at the furlong marker and I was smiling, until I saw my third choice rallying strongly down the middle of the track.  They drew even at the 16th pole, New Englander fought back against the horse with the momentum and as they blew by me I thought I'd hung on, but I wasn't confident.  Sigh, such was the way most of the photos would go for the day........

Second.....disappointing :(  Missed again when I backed a 40% Club angle where Side Road was trying the turf for the first time for Kiaran McLaughlin who scored 44% with class droppers - no where to be found at 5/1.  At Tampa I ran second, again at 7/2.  In the fifth I was certain I'd win with Won Fast Bullet, and the crowd agreed making him 3/5.....second again!  Then came one of the toughest defeats of the day - in fact if I could have one winner that escaped me and only one, it would be this one.......When I handicapped the Aqueduct card, Taproot looked like a short priced winner in the claiming sprint.  I checked DRF Handicapper Dave Liftin's pick --> Taproot, and three of the four selectors had him on top....

 I tripled the bet.  With ten minutes to post I looked up and the #4 was at 6/1....did I have the wrong number?  Nope....was I betting the wrong race?  Nope?  OH MY!  The race seemed to go just as expected.  Taproot sat off the front-runner, moved on the turn and made his move as they straightened for home.  As I watched on the simulcast television I couldn't hear the track announcer, but his call (watch the video) makes the story even more unbelievable.  It was so obvious Taproot was going to win, as the announcer called, "Here comes Taproot, and Taproot moves to the front."  As they hit the 16th pole he was edging clear and the announcer was making his "wrap up call" - "and in the final 16th it's Taproot, but WW's coming back!"  Yes, the front runner and his rider had not given up, and I thought my jockey had felt like he had the race wrapped up.  But the time he saw the threat it was too late.  

What could have been!  At 6/1 and my triple investment I'd have collected almost $100 and that my friends would have made for a completely different day.  Wow.  Ten minutes later I finally scored at the Fair Grounds in their opener when Gerry's Reward won at odds-on.  Little consolation for the miss at Aqueduct.  And then the next race, the 6th at Gulfstream was another tough pill to swallow, especially for me personally.  I had relied on the Gulfstream Park Handicapper and it's assertion that the top trainer over the last two years with maiden first-time-starters was Christophe Clement.  I personally had witnessed that Todd Pletcher was best, and anytime his name was listed in a sophomore maiden race, he's just an automatic double bet.  SOOOO many times I've said, "Who didn't get the memo?" Or I would say/write - "You're either all in with Pletcher or you're not, you can't guess when to bet on him."  Well, the GP Handicapper had listed Pletcher's worst category was turf routes, and he'd lost a couple of those.  So in the 6th I went with a Clement FTS who went off at 2/1 and was no where (7th).  The winner - Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez, textbook selection.  The worst part, he went off at 7/2 and paid $9.20, I would have collected nearly $50 and would have gone on camera saying "WHO doesn't get the memo?"  Now, apparently it's me that didn't get the memo....never, NEVER again.  I finally won a race in Hallandale in the 7th.  Starship Titan was another Jamie Ness-trained for Midwest Thoroughbreds.  For some reason I only had the minimum :(  He won at a very generous $7.20......

But as the clock turned to 4 pm I seemed to catch find my handicapping groove.  In the 8th at Tampa it was the Gaspirlla Stakes for 3yo fillies.  I liked Vitameta and in a thrilling three horse stretch duel she was best..... 

 Then I won with comebacker Midnight Transfer at Santa Anita in an allowance spot at 6/5.  His race earned a triple Beyer and he's now going to be pointed for a graded stakes, so I was lucky to get more than even money on him.  I missed with a Chad Brown second-time maiden who was 3/5 - 3rd.....wow, but then I scored back-to-back races.  The first was at the Fair Grounds in an off-the-turf event where Proud Strike was clearly the horse to beat in spite of the outside draw.  And he drew clear late at 4/5.  But the score of the day came in the 4th at Santa Anita.  This was a claiming race, sprinting down the mountain course.  I LOVE to handicap these races because they are almost always won by horses who've proven themselves over this unique course.  And so many times the crowd backs horses who do not have good trips down the hill, or even have run down the course.  They apparently look at turf sprint form from other tracks, and there is NOTHING like running down that hillside, experience down that course is THE KEY.  Well, I picked Mr. Bossy Pants who had a 4-for-7 record down the course, and was clearly the horse-for-the-course in the field.  She was three wide into the lane and it was AWFULLY close, but he was the winner in a exciting finish!  

 And the best part - he was allowed to go off at 4/1 - paid $10.80 and I was cashing for over $50!  Next up was the featured Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale - I ran third with Big Blue Kitten while the winner paid $84.20.  I looked at the Form and in his last four turf efforts the winner had a record of:  WIN, WIN, WIN - Needles Stakes, and then 2nd by 1/2 length in the Grade 2 McKnight - and yet he was allowed to go off at better than 40/1!  Right before I left I had the second loss that I'd love to have back...... it was in the 6th at the Fair Grounds and again I was surprised that my horse, Tread, was not the favorite.  He too went off at 6/1.  He too, like Taproot earlier, came to the leader, seemed to have him measured, took the lead and looked to be gone, only to have the rail horse re-rally and I lost a photo.......

 I had four selections to watch after I left the races.....I had what looked like the best main-track horse in the feature at the Fair Grounds when it was rained off the turf.  Starlite Starbrite was 7/5 and faded to the back through the stretch.  Then at Santa Anita I had Wine List....rallying down the outside, stretch duel, PHOTO FINISH!  What to guess the outcome?  

Yes, second, again.  Third down the hillside at a big 7/1 - that would have been nice!  And then in the final race of the day Admiral Nelson won the finale at the Fair Grounds.  It wasn't hard to figure this 3/5 winner - he was claimed from his last by top trainer Steve Asmussen for owner......STEVE ASMUSSEN!  Duh.  

For the day I finished 9-for-28, a nice 32% winning percentage.  But oh the money that COULD have been mine!  But, that's the fun of this game, so many what would have beens!