Gulfstream 2012-13

Sunday December 9

End the week in a BIG WAY

Sweep Weekend's Stakes!

After failing to life up to my expectations yesterday I had high hopes that today would bring a winning day - and I wasn't disappointed!  But it didn't start that way! Today's nine race program led me to six selections, and all week long the local weather predictions were for rain over the weekend, so I had alternate selections for the five turf races. However, much like yesterday it was a beautiful sunny day and all the races stayed on the grass.  In the opener I had landed on Underestimate Me who was 8/1 in the program.  He was dropping in for a first-time maiden tag and had last year's top rider, Javier Castellano on board who listed a 37% win rate for this little known trainer.  I was delighted when the post time odds were posted at 9-1 and Castellano had him in striking position entering the far turn.  Underestimate Me came with a big late run and J-U-S-T missed, second - AGAIN!  That would have been a nice score.  In the second trainer Jamie Ness had an entry for Midwest Thoroughbreds; with the race a claiming race for a $17.5 tag this meant it was a double "Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club" race, as Ness hits at 47% with this level of claimers and 39% for this ownership group.  The second half of the entry scratched and Houston Bull was a juicy 5/2 as he led them from the gate and was clear in mid-stretch.  But the odds-on favorite was running late.....and caught him just before the wire.....second again, and again in a photo finish :(   

In the 3rd we were back on the grass and it was another "Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club" play:  Magnificent Seven (5/1) was dropping out of a Saratoga Maiden Special into today's maiden claiming spot - trainer Chad Brown wins over 40% with maiden claimers; today Jose Lezcano was riding - the two of them hook up to win more than 40% of the time!  She left the post at 3/1 and was wide coming out of the turn for home, but rallied strongly...... for yes, you guessed it - 2nd AGAIN.  At least it wasn't a photo and I never really thought she'd win.  I didn't have a play in either the fourth or the fifth, so my next selection was in the 6th.  Back on the inner turf course and this time I had the favorite, Abaco.  

It was a very interesting analysis, and I'm not sure how many handicappers saw what I saw, but it was enough for me to double the wager.  Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey (who I actually walked right past on Saturday!) doesn't win often at Gulfstream, especially early in the meet.  But he'd already scored a couple of winners so far.  Abaco had paired speed figures that would take a career effort from one of her rivals to win today.  But what sealed the deal for me was that prior to her last win, she was coming off an 86 Beyer speed rating victory and McGaughey put her through two works - a four furlong breeze in :50 flat and then a sharp three furlong work in :36.2.  She won her next level allowance and earned an identical 86 Beyer.  Since then she had worked four furlongs in :49 and then a speed sharpener in :36.1.....coincidence?  I think not!  Much like Silver Rock on Saturday, Abaco was W-A-Y back through the far turn.  But as heads turned for home jockey Johnny Velazquez asked for her best and she blew by the field to win going away!  WHOO HOO!  

I passed the 8th (ironically in the three races I'd passed my top pick didn't win the 4th, but the third choice did at a price, and in the 5th and 7th I had the winner listed on top - $3.00 and then $8.80!).  Now it was time for the feature race, the South Beach Stakes.  I thought that this was very similar to yesterday's feature, the favorite just seemed very obvious to me and I thought we'd get an odds-on price again.  The favorite - in the headlines in every racing publication and the local paper, as well as in the program - was Romacaca.  She's a multiple graded stakes winner; and what's more she's a Gulfstream "Horse-for-the-Course" as you can see by her career box; and note how she simply loves this distance!  

The "big question" according to the so-called experts was that there were several front-runners in here, including one very quick filly (Frontside) and with the outside draw Romacaca looked to be up against it to run her race.  But, I've seen her race many times (and cashed several times on her) and you can see in her past performances that she's sat off the pace to win before.  So given her class edge and love for the course and distance I thought she'd sit off the leaders, swoop to the front off the turn and win.  It couldn't have gone any closer to the way I'd forseen the race with one exception........when they left the gate Romacaca was NOT anything close to odds-on -->  9/5 or 2/1?  Would that be too much to hope for....guess again....she was an amazing 3/1!  She stalked the leaders from fourth, about three off the lead, made a move on the turn and then was courageous to hold off the late runners.  And she was even better than 3/1 as she didn't pay just $8, she paid a very, VERY generous $8.40.  I had tripled the bet so I collected well over $60!  AWESOME!  

Even though I missed in the final race I was delighted with the way the day turned out - 33% wins and a profit of $30.  Even better, I swept the weekend stakes races!  Tomorrow I'll make a "Week In Review" video and we'll do this all over again for Week 2 starting Wednesday!