A GREAT Way To Start The Week!
Wednesday December 5
As the racing week began I had five selections on the eight race card, and all five were directly due to the information found in the "Gulfstream Handicapper" I had mentioned in my earlier entry. I had spent the morning handicapping for the remainder of the week, and then meeting with my financial advisor. I was done with all my "chores" at about 12:30, just in time to start watching the live telecast on HRTV on the big screen.......
In the opener I passed the race, and it was a good thing as my top selection ran fifth of five. So often I've said that half the secret of handicapping is determining WHEN to make an investment and how much to invest. This was a solid "win" decision by passing the race. In the second I liked Diamond Maker who was 8/1 on the morning line. It was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play as trainer Patricia Farro wins 40% of the races where she saddles a horse for New Life Stables. When Diamond Maker left the gate at 30/1 I knew my chances of winning were slim, but she ran a solid fourth at this huge price. The next investment was in the 3rd race, and it was the first two two "added money" investments.......
The 3rd race featured I Am American, another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play. American is trained by Jamie Ness who is a Club member who wins a huge 47% of the time when his starters are in a claiming race for less than $40K. Today's sprint was for $10K so it was an automatic play. I was very confident with Javier Castellano in the saddle, as when he rides for Ness they win 50% of the time. Right out of the gate I Am American was in front and in hand.........
When they turned for home Castellano asked for his best and I Am American drew off to win as MUCH the best! Though he was the favorite, the fact that I'd tripled the bet allowed me to collect enough to cover three of the four investments for the day! In the 4th race I backed Blazen, who was yet another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play. It was another Patricia Farro trained runner. She went off at 3/1 and made a move turning for home, but was no match for the top two and was third.
I passed the fifth, again a great decision because the winner paid over $80 for a $2 bet, and even the HRTV analysts commented how impossible it would have been to predict that winner. I backed Sunshine Rainbow in the 6th, still another GP H'Capper 40% play. She was the third horse today from the Patricia Farro stable I liked, and was 3/1 as they approached the gate. But as they were loading she caused a bit of a stir and the vet scratched her at the gate. That left only one race on my selection sheet (there were only eight races today), but it was my "BET of the DAY" - Imperial Luck in the 7th.
Imperial Luck was trained by Kirk Ziadie who fit with this play on three angles - first, he wins at a 41% rate with runners off a 31-to-60 day break and Imperial Luck was returning in 32 days....check! Second, Ziadie boasts a 41% win rate with his dirt sprinters.....today was a six furlong dirt sprint.....check! But most impressive was the fact that 63% of the time Ziadie enters a horse in a claiming race for a tag below $40K he WINS! You can see why Imperial Luck was my BET of the Day. But wait, there was more! The only two times in his brief career that Imperial Luck had been sprinting for a tag he had won by eight widening lengths in his maiden breaker and then by ten widening lengths in a $16K non-winners of two lifetime spot. Imperial Luck broke on top but a longshot flew up the rail to set the pace. Jockey Jose Lezcano allowed him to take over and positioned his mount just off his hip........
As they turned for home Lezcano shook the reins and it was over. The farther they went down the lane the wider the margin grew. Any time owner Frank Calabrese enters a horse, especially in a claiming spot, you know they are a likely winner. With Ziadie training for him they connect at a 42% rate. With all those numbers I was surprised that the crowd allowed him to leave the gate at 4/5. As he coasted past the wire I was grinning from ear to ear :) I've posted the link to the race replay below the winning photo below......
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| Click here to watch the video replay |
So, for the day - with the late scratch - I had four selections and won two of them. Note that on both the wins I'd upped the investment, and the two losses I had the minimum.....again, it points out the importance of not only picking the winner, but managing your money. So for the day I came out close to $25 ahead! This was especially rewarding as over the weekend I'd only won three times locally, and most of my winter investments will be here. I am very hopeful that the Gulfstream Handicapper will pave the way to a profitable winter! Selections for tomorrow are online at my handicapping selection site:
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