Saturday December 15
Another 30% Winning Day - Two National Stakes Wins!
The feature race at Gulfstream today was the Grade 3 Dania Stakes on the turf and it was a complete toss-up to me; in fact I only had one race where I liked the selection enough to triple the bet. So, with no "big bets" on track and today being the first bowl game of the college football season I decided to stay home and play online while I watched tv. I contemplated all day Thursday whether I wanted to handicap around the country since I wasn't going out to the races and in the end I decided I would - but I would be very selective. Even after I'd finished handicapping, I was hesitant to play anywhere but Gulfstream today. But in the end I decided that I had made the selections and I'd be sorry if I didn't, so I set up my computer by my chair and watched races all day while watching college football on the big screen......mixed results --> I scored with two major stakes races; hit with all three of my "big bets" on the day; but saw my "BET of the Day" scratch on the way to the track AND lost my chance at a very profitable day with an oh-so-close photo finish loss.
The day opened at Aqueduct where DRF Handicapper Dave Liftin had his "best" of the day, whom I was a big fan of - Long River in the 2nd, a Maiden Special for juveniles. In his last he'd earned a speed figure that towered above the rest of the field AND the race had turned out to be a KEY race with multiple winners exiting it. Long River rated off the pace setter to the turn, moved through an opening on the inside and was G-O-N-E. Only paid $2.50, but I collected nearly $20 on my triple investment. A good start.......
In my first bet at Gulfstream I liked Sell Sell Sell in the second. He too came up the rail, was bumped and bothered, and still finished second. "OBJECTION!" - I thought that even though it wouldn't make up for the money lost yesterday, I was due a reversal by the stewards. They looked - and decided it wasn't bad enough to take down the winner.....really? WOW. I missed in the 3rd at Gulfstream where I led into the stretch on the turf and stopped like I was shot and then I scored with my second of "big investment." In the 5th at Gulfstream we were on the turf for a non-winners-of-two-lifetime and hot owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey had an entry: Steal the Dance and Tipsy. I thought either was a strong candidate, though I slightly preferred the former, but as an entry (two separate trainers and jockeys, so they'd both run) I thought they were formidable. I tripled the bet and Tipsy was much the best on the wire with Steal the Dance rallying wide to be third. Collected nearly $40 on my triple investment this time!
I was second best in the 6th at Gulfstream, second after leading the length of the stretch at Aqueduct in their co-feature, and then a non-threatening third at the Fair Grounds before the race that turned the overall outcome of the day - the 7th at Gulfstream. This was another turf event and the prohibitive favorite was #12-Console. But I didn't even have him in my top three, and in fact I was TRIPLING the bet on my pick! I re-examined my handicapping, and no - I had it right I thought. My pick was #6 Which Market who had nearly paired Beyers, just missed in a stakes at Aqueduct and was dropping into an optional claimer today for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. This is significant as according to the Gulfstream Handicapper, McLaughlin scores with 44% of those kinds of moves. Top rider John Velazquez had him flying on the outside, a little wide out of the turn, and on the wire it was so close. I truly thought live and on replay I'd won! At 3/1 I was about to haul in over $60. But then the photo came up.....2nd. Oh no.....sigh.......
No time to boo hoo over near misses, it was the feature race at Aqueduct, the Gravesend Handicap. The field was originally made up of six runners and the likely favorite was Saginaw, who had already won NINE TIMES in 2012. He was a stellar NY-bred stakes star, and had run well in all but one open company race. The Gravesend was an open spot, but he fit nicely here. The problem I had was this - it was at six furlongs and he'd never won at this distance, in fact two back he'd lost as a prime-time bet for me at this distance; and there was a top flight speedster on the rail that could make it difficult for him. But as the board opened I saw that this rail runner (and one other) had scratched. Now, the loss at six panels previously looked not nearly as significant (especially since he'd broken poorly that day as well). So I doubled my already planned double-down bet and he was a "Bet of the Day" selection. The "other" front runner (who was somehow bet down to 5/2 by the "value" bettors) took the lead but Saginaw was right on his hip and I knew it was just a matter of time before my jockey asked and I blew by......and the best news is that he went off at a remarkable 1-2 on the board. He was clearly a 1-5 runner in here, but I was "stealing" from the other handicappers. Easy - Peasy - Pie! WHOOO HOOOOO!
Minutes later I scored with my only bet at Tampa when Normative Appeal ran away from the field through the stretch. I was off the board in three races and in my BET of the Day, Zenyatta's little sister Eblouissante was scratched when she injured herself leaving the receiving barn to head to the paddock :( But in my next, at the Fair Grounds top rider Rosie Napravnik had Tetradrachm flying on the outside to be JUST up in time, my fifth winner on the day!
I was off the board in two, and third in another of a series of price plays until the final race of the day on my selection sheet - the national race of the day, the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park for 2-year-olds. It was very unusual this past November when at the Breeders' Cup the east-coast juvenile star Shanghai Bobby was able to easily defeat the west coast stars, and many thought this was indicative of a better crop of youngsters on the east coast. Well, Shanghai Bobby is trained by Todd Pletcher and even when this one had already won two stakes races Pletcher had said in late August that his "best" two-year-old had not run yet, a colt named Violence. When he debuted this summer I had $50 to win on him and he won (in a photo! Whew!). But he came right back to draw off handily in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. So, when Pletcher sent his "best" all the way across the country AND top rider Javier Castellano came with him, I knew they thought they believed they had a great shot. Then on Friday I watched a DRF video analysis of the race. Dan Illman and Mike Beer pointed out that over the last five years Todd Pletcher was 0-for-26 in situations shipping out west in stakes to run on synthetic surfaces; and that in general dirt-to-synthetic was just not a winning move. I reconsidered my position, and then I thought - it doesn't matter if Violence is truly as good as they think. Well, he was really impressive! In spite of a slow pace to close into, he just blew by the west-coast runners like they were tied to the rail and drew off easily. I was delighted to get 6/5 on the what may be the best colt in the country as we near the end of the 2012 season and begin to look forward to the spring classics.
So for the day I scored with six of twenty selections - a wonderful, but oh-so-predictable 30%. But the difference in the day came from (a) the near miss in the Gulfstream 7th and the fact that the "longshot" winner on the day for me paid $5.20 - tough to grind out a profit if you don't even have one double-digit winner. Tomorrow I have several selections at Gulfstream and I am going out for the last five races. My selections, as always can be found on my selection page:
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