Saturday December 22
Considering that there was no racing in New York or Southern California, greatly cutting down on the opportunities for finding races to invest in, it turned out to be a great Saturday of racing! Kim and I had decided to go out to dinner at The Yardhouse restaurant, which sits right on the paddock at Gulfstream and stay for the Christmas light show in the Villages at Gulfstream. Rather than spending the day at the races, I bet the first half of the card at home online and then we would be on track for the latter part of the day. As you can see from the photo of us, the day brought a HUGE change in the weather as it was 43 degrees, with a feel-like temperature of a chilly 39 degrees. Though it "warmed up" to the mid-60s, it was back in the 50's by the time the light show started after the sun set. Today was also "Super Santa Saturday" at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans featuring four stakes races. Before the racing started I posted four "BEST" bets on Facebook for my friends to gather some "free" holiday money:
Gulfstream Race 8: Nevada
Gulfstream Race 10: Let The Kitten Run
BET OF THE DAY:
Fair Grounds Race 3: The Blushing KD H'Cap: Daisy Devine
Fair Grounds Race 10: Bind
In the opener at Gulfstream, it was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play as I had Flopodopolus as the top selection. According to the statistics, trainer Michael Mareina has three areas that qualify him for Club membership, and two of them applied to 'Flop .... in dirt sprints he's won 12 of 27 over the last two seasons (44%), and with horses coming off a break of 180 days or longer - Flopodopolus was last seen on July 3 - 2011! - Mareina also wins at a remarkable 44% rate. I felt sure I'd get at least a "fair price" today as the program listed 'Flop at 4/1. The crowd was onto Mareina and bet the runner down to 3-5 favoritism. And he earned it as he simply walked with the race, geared down under the wire. I had doubled the investment, so I was able to collect nearly $20. A good start!
I thought I had just as good a selection in the second with another "Club" selection when Todd Pletcher sent out Yes I'm Awesome in an allowance spot. He dueled for the lead, took over heading for home, but was a close second on the wire. Grrrrr. I had five selections from the Fair Grounds, the first was what looked to be an odds-on winner in an allowance race where Divine Providence was the lone speed. My only concern was that even when a runner is loose on an easy lead at the Fair Grounds, the track - which plays to closers - often eats them up. Divine Providence was clear by daylight at the furlong marker in deep stretch, only to be caught late. WOW....good thing I only played the minimum. In the fourth at Gulfstream there were three Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club qualifiers. I thought Large Kaufy would be the best price, and he was at 12/1, so I made him my bet. He ran 8th and last; neither of the other two hit the board! Double Wow! Then came the best score of the day, which assured a winning profit for the day.....it was in the 5th at Gulfstream.
In the fifth we were going 1 1/16th on the turf and it was a claiming race for non-winners of two lifetime. Normally in spots like this I toss any runner who's already lost in a 2L spot, but #6-Parasol caught my attention. He was a poor 1-for-11 in his career and had lost in 2L spots previously, but I thought you could make a fairly strong case for him. First of all, four of his starts were on the dirt, draw a line through those. Now you were looking at a horse who had a turf record of five for seven in the money finishes.....that's better. Consider that in his last start he was making his first start for the powerful Team Calabese stable, so he now had "much better" connections. The statistics show that trainer Luis Ramirez wins with a remarkable 57% of their runners making their second start off a break, like Parasol was doing today; and an even more amazing 62% of the time with their horses stretching out in distance. For their first start with him, Parasol had gone 7 1/2 furlongs --> today 8 1/2 furlongs! Ramirez had big numbers in several other categories as well: turf-40%, routes-43%, claimers-38%. Just looked like a solid play in spite of the conditioned spot. I doubled the bet. It was an exciting race as Parasol forged to the lead with a 16th out and had to hold off the late runners, but he won! And at a very healthy 3/1, so I was able to cash for over $40! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
My "BET of the Day" was in the first of the Fair Grounds stakes races, the Blushing KD Handicap. I had on my sheet that post time was 3:57, so Kim and I were going to leave at 3:00. My plan was to invest half the bet online before we left and another half on track. But somehow I had misfigured the Central Standard Time.....post time was at 3:02 pm. So - having already put in my online "half bet" - I went to add money to it and inadvertently clicked the $1 button instead of $10.....decided to up the ante another notch, so instead of adding $9 I added $14 more to the bet. Daisy Devine was a Grade 1 winner, and a multiple graded stakes winner as my top selection. The Blushing KD was a listed $75K stakes and NONE of the remaining horses were stakes winners. As if this wasn't enough, she was the one and ONLY front runner in the field. This presented the only dilemma......even more pronounced than the main track's affinity for inhaling front-runners, the turf at the Fair Grounds is very, VERY unkind to front-runners. Would Daisy have enough class to hold off these wannabe stakes runners? I decided she did, and made her the "BET of the Day" but if you follow my handicapping adventures you know that a $35 investment is hardly "all in" for what I consider a mortal lock.....i.e. Groupie Doll in the Breeders' Cup at $100 and Wise Dan at the Breeders' Cup at $50. She broke quickly, but a longshot decided to put pressure on her. Through the first turn and into the backstretch they were together on the lead, and I thought this was NOT a good thing....the last thing I needed was to have her under pressure! But about half way down the backstretch Daisy Devine moved away easily on the front. As they turned for home she was clear by three or four, but here came the late runners. Jockey Brian Hernandez (who had become a nationally recognized rider when he won the Breeders' Cup Classic - on his birthday no less!) then asked for more and Daisy Devine was LONG GONE! WHOOO HOOO - AGAIN! It was great to have a little momentum as we headed out to the races for the remainder of my selections!
As we arrived on track the 7th at Gulfstream had just concluded. I had bet on Minister Colin, who had a record of 5/2-1-1 over the GP lawn.....he was second at a big 7/1 - that would have been nice! We were able to move to the rail and watch the 8th at Gulfstream live where I liked Todd Pletcher's Nevada in a two-turn maiden special spot. Some had made Nevada their "BEST" of the day, but I wasn't so sure.....I only had doubled the bet. He was bet down to 8/5 and had no stretch punch - 5th. Kim headed up to the casino to enjoy some slots action while I had five more selections. Then we would meet for dinner. In the second of the Fair Ground stakes races I bet on, I scored again with Tour Guide. He was the odds-on favorite, and I knew he would be, in the Super Bowl Stakes - a juvenile sprint. I thought that it was not worth a big bet on a front-running two-year-old at the Fair Grounds. But he was as good as advertised - I was delighted to win, AGAIN :) Next on my list was the feature at Gulfstream where if the truth were known I probably would not have a bet, but it was the feature race. I was backing former graded stakes winner Teaks North, who was listed at 15/1 in this listed race. He ran like a 15/1 horse - 9th. I was ready to make my "best" bet of the day at Gulfstream in the finale where I thought Let The Kitten Run would be much the best, but she had scratched! BOOOOOOOO! So, I texted Kim and told her that I had over an hour between bets, and could watch the Fair Grounds simulcasts (my last two) on the tv monitors if she wanted to meet for dinner. So we hooked up in the paddock and went to dinner. The Yardhouse always is packed and always serves a good meal, we enjoyed it. And we finished, paid the bill with about ten minutes to the light/music show. You can see a clip of that this week on my "Week 3 Recap" video!
The last two selections from New Orleans started with the Bonapaw Stakes, a five and a half furlong turf sprint. Chamberlain Bridge - who I'd nailed at $15.60 three years ago at the Breeders' Cup - loves this course. And though probably a step slower now, he still held the edge over the field. But he dropped W-A-Y back in the field and was a late running fourth. Disappointment :( The final race however was almost a co-best of the day, and it comes with an interesting story....... I was on track at Gulfstream in 2010, some twenty months ago, and there was a maiden special race for three year olds. I had picked Bind as my top bet based on the trainer numbers and his works. But as post time approached I re-examined the race and for the first time EVER I made a first-time starter a "Prime Time" selection. Bind was scintilating that day, drawing off by half the length of the stretch and earning a phenomenal 105 speed figure. That was in a sprint race, and he had the look of a stakes runner for sure. He came back in a two-turn allowance race at 1-9 odds and could not get by the winner, losing in a photo. In his third start he again went two turns, and again disappointed at odds-on in another photo loss. That had been the last time I'd seen him. Today he was returning, and today's race was a sprint. His works looked so similar to when he ran first out, and the spot seemed an easy one to me. What sealed the deal was that DRF handicapper Marcus Hersch had him as his bet of the day. This was significant because Hersch NEVER lists an odds-on favorite as his top pick, in any race. A horse may be bet down to odds-on that he selected on top, but he's never got the morning line favorite. And this is most particularly true of his "best" of the day. So knowing Bind was going to be odds on and Hersch still made him his best....that said a lot. I also found it interesting that he commented in his analysis that Bind had been the most impressive maiden winner he'd ever seen.....I second the motion! Bid sat patiently behind a trio of front-runners, split them handily going into the turn and drew off as TONS the best. I was so very, VERY happy that for some reason the crowd allowed him to go off at 6/5! I collected nearly $50! THANK YOU to all the "value players" who thought they had a better idea!
So for the day, I'd won with five out of eleven selections - a big 45% win average - and had a healthy profit on the day. Even better, of the four races I'd posted on Facebook, I had one scratch and won with two of the three others.....anyone who'd played with me would have nearly doubled their money and earned some "free holiday cash!" You are most welcome everyone! Happy Handicapping Holidays!
Sunday's selections for the last day of the racing week are posted online here:
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