Summary of Wednesday - thru - Friday

December 26 - 28

Saturday December 29

Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Day

This was a L - O - N - G week heading into Saturday, and so the experience of Mr. Prospector Day came as a welcome relief!  I had such a good Saturday last weekend I was certain that I was going to build on that this week.  But Wednesday - which was also Opening Day at Santa Anita produced a mere two wins from nine selections, including a disappointing loss by heavily favored My Miss Aurelia in the Grade 1 La Brea.  

When I lost with My Miss Aurelia at 2/5 it set the stage for the next two days, sadly.  On Thursday I had two wins from seven selections, but I lost at 7/5 (3rd), at 3/5 (2nd), at 2/5 (2nd).....and then on Friday I was 0-for-5 losing with favorites at 6/5 (2nd), 7/5 (3rd), 3/2 (3rd) and 8/5 (5th).  And what is MOST ironic about the losses with the short priced favorites, I HAD THE WINNER listed in five of them.  I kept trying to tell myself that the wins would come back to me, but heading into Saturday I was anxious about heading out to Gulfstream and losing a lot of money and not cashing tickets.  But I made myself handicap, and by the time I headed out I thought I was going to have a big day.  

Saturday December 29

Video Recap

When I arrived - all spiffed up in my Christmas sports jacket and new pants, the trouble began immediately.  As I got out of my car I realized I'd left my Racing Form at home.  Then I realized I'd left my highlighter at home.  Wow, what was I thinking?  I walked in, and my first selection was at Aqueduct, followed shortly by the opener at Tampa.  I found the Tamp simulcast on one of the tv's but where's Aqueduct?  Then I thought, oh no.....sure enough, I looked up the scratches and Aqueduct was cancelled - there goes five bets.  I looked up at the Fair Grounds screen - off the turf.....mixed feelings, I had three bets on the grass, but my "BEST" at the Fair Grounds was with a main-track-only runner if it came off the turf.  Then I saw he was scratched!  Looked up at Tampa - bright sunshine, but "OFF THE TURF" - there goes another four bets!  WOW....what had figured to be a hectic day of non-stop racing was now relegated to largely Gulfstream plays.  At least my "BEST" here was going to be exciting as he was 12/1 in the program in the feature race, the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes.  

The day started with my "BEST" at Tampa.  Majestic Flyight had run 4th in a $25K Maiden Claimer at Gulfstream and was now in a $12.5K maiden here - and going for a 41% barn, that featured a jockey-trainer combination winning at a huge $4.90 ROI.  The crowd wasn't fooled and he went off at 3/5, but he WALKED with it!  WHOOO HOOOOO!  Nice to cash a ticket I gotta tell you!  

Seven minutes later it was the opener at Gulfstream.  Imperial Luck was my top choice.  He was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play for Kirk Ziaddie (63% with runners with a tag of less than $40K).  He'd won on Opening Weekend for me as my "best" - as had another similar runner who'd come back to lose at odds on during this past week.  So I didn't want to go all in, just doubled the bet.  He was 1/5 as he blew by the field and scored motored down.  Two-for-two is a wonderful way to start the day!  In the second at Gulfstream, my next, it was a Todd Pletcher two-year-old first-timer.....automatic right?  Well, he doesn't seem to be nearly as good with maiden claimers, like Pepe was.  But as I've often said, you are either all in with Pletcher or not - you can't guess on him, he wins at over 40%.  I noticed the owner was Pletcher's dad!  If ever he would want to win, it had to be for his dad, right?  Pepe was much the best, and I collected nearly $30!  THREE-for-THREE!  WHOOOO HOOOOOx3!  

It was 45 minutes to my next play, the opener at the Fair Grounds.  Another Gear was a best-of-the-rest 2nd at Churchill in his debut.  Anything close to that and he would win by daylight.  But with fifteen minutes to post he was nearly 4/1.  By post time he was 6/5....and indeed he was an easy-peasy-pie winner!  FOUR IN A ROW!  

Ten minutes later was the 4th at Gulfstream, on the turf.  I had Jamestown and he was home free in mid-stretch.....but caught on the wire, 2nd....sigh, guess I could not win EVERY race!  The fifth was the featured Grade 3 Mr. Prospector, and here's what I wrote about my UPSET OF THE DAY...... 

The feature race today is the second graded stakes of the meeting, and while this feature has been won my some stakes stars in recent years, this year’s field does not have a superstar in the field of six.  In fact, it is my feeling that the two short-priced favorites are vulnerable in here AND that a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club longshot may have a legitimate shot to upset the applecart!  Let’s start by looking at the contenders and why they appear vulnerable to me.  In the program, 4-Action Andy (6/5) is the favorite.  He’s run back-to-back triple digit Beyers and would seem legitimate on that fact alone.  Take into consideration that he’s won three in a row and is a multiple stakes winner and you can see why he’s listed at a short price.  However, you will also note that of the seven wins showing in his pp’s FIVE of them are at Tampa Bay Downs.  I’ll give you that he won two big money stakes at Laurel prior to the last race win at his favorite track, but I’d argue he wasn’t running against any better in those spots either.  But perhaps most compelling is the fact that the only time he ran here, in a LISTED stakes he was a no show 6^th beaten over eight lengths.  Also, in the two races where he faced a “name” runner (other than the GP start, he was also beaten.  He also likes to run up on the pace and that may not be the place to be today.  Not at a short price for me.  The other program favorite is 6-Indiano (8/5) who was just beaten by Action Andy.  Considering he was second, off a break to a horse who loves the sandy Oldsmar track, and he’s a bounce-back candidate.  But this one also has issues……since he came to the US in the winter of 2011 he’s been expertly managed by Marty Wolfson, posting a nice 11/4-4-2 record with all four wins being in stakes.  However, much like Action Andy, ALL FOUR of those wins were at his home track of Calder.  He does have two good 2^nd place runs here, so I think he’s also vulnerable on this track.  My top selection to spring the upset is found right next door, 5-Partyallnightlong (12/1) who is trained by Edwin Broome.  He is a miserable 4-for-108 here at Gulfstream over the last two seasons, except in one situation…..running a horse who is moving from turf to dirt.  That has happened 9 times in the last two seasons and he’s won SEVEN of them, a whopping 78%!  And on a $2 bet you’d have invested $18 and collected nearly $65, so winning with a longshot is not an issue!  That, obviously, qualifies him as a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club member!  Add to this the fact that a key winning angle for Broome is when he trains for the partnership of Richard Malouf & Edwin Broome (5-for-18, 28% with an $82 profit!)….ironically when running horses for Malouf or himself individually his stats are poor indeed (3-for-16 and 3-for-44).  And finally, Partyallnightlong fired a best of 30 bullet work here six days ago.  Jose Lezcan rides – he’s been on three Broome horses and won with two of them!   

UPSET SPECIAL

$20 to WIN on #5 – Partyallnightlong

On the Gulfstream webpage the featured video was even an interview with trainer Edwin Broome....it was in the stars!  And then the scratches showed up - SCRATCHED, #5 Partyallnightlong....wow.  I went back and forth about the race and in the end I just really felt Indiano was the better horse - I'd bet him when he faced Action Andy three weeks ago on that one's home track off a long layoff.  With one under his belt and Action Andy the shipper, I thought the favorite was vulnerable.  Couldn't decide about how much to go in, so I settled on a double bet.....easily!  

Shockingly I missed on two in a row!  Horrors!  But I scored at Gulfstream, again, and it was with another Todd Pletcher 2-year-old first timer.  How the crowd let Harborinthetempest leave the gate at better than 2/1 I'll never know - but I gladly collected over $30!  

Then I went through my only drought of the day, going 90 minutes without a win - though I was very close with several of my picks.  My last score, live on track, came in the 9th on the turf at Gulfstream.  Floral Romance had top rider Joel Rosario going for Bill Mott.  As they came out of the gate she missed the break and trailed into the backstretch.  But on the far turn she swooped past the field five-wide and just when you thought she couldn't sustain the move she was GONE!  And at 4/1 - even announcer Larry Colmus was very impressed (listen to his call on the video recap!).  I had noted the win and the odds and was waiting for the payoffs when it was announced there was an objection.  I knew it wasn't against me, I was five clear on the wire.....yes it was.  This so reminded me of another turf race where Rosario swooped by and was DQ'd.  But as I looked at it I just couldn't see anything wrong....and neither could the stewards!  His number stayed up, I won!  The payoff was a nice $10.00 and I cashed for $25.  I left for the day with an amazing - and so well deserved - 8/5-2-1 record at Gulfstream :)  

I had five races left to watch in the evening.......In the finale at Gulfstream I was leading by two lengths as they turned for home - at 7/1!  Caught late, 3rd.  Missed in a good second at 9/1 at Santa Anita in the Kalookan Queen Stakes, then won with We Found Love in the 9th at the Fair Grounds.  I was second again in the Eddie Logan stakes, originally scheduled for a mile over the Santa Anita turf, but with the big rain storms it was moved to the dirt.  Missed in the 7th at Santa Anita when I backed Brad Free's "best" of the day.  But then the crowning glory to the day came in the featured Grade 3 Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita.  Originally it was scheduled for 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill on the turf, but now would be a sprint on the main.  I had picked Comma to the Top on either surface.  But when SEVEN scratched out of it, he looked to be the speed of the race.  In spite of not being able to match Capital Account's speed figures, I thought "pace makes the race" was the key angle.  He went right to the front, fended off the pressure and drew off!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Hit the two graded stakes on the calendar nationally; had NINE wins on the day and a very nice profit for the day!  

The week's final selections are found online here: 

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_sun.pdf 

  

December 23

Disappointing End To Week

After the big day Saturday I was excited to end the week with a strong finish.  Instead one after another all disappointed.....two seconds and two thirds from seven selections, including misses at 3/5, 3/5, 3/2, and 4/5.  Enough about the racing...... how about the headlines on recent Pletcher winner, Highmaintainence (who I had in a triple investment!)......

Back on the handicapping trail the day after Christmas....and as an added bonus Wednesday is Opening Day at Santa Anita!

Saturday December 22

 

 Considering that there was no racing in New York or Southern California, greatly cutting down on the opportunities for finding races to invest in, it turned out to be a great Saturday of racing!  Kim and I had decided to go out to dinner at The Yardhouse restaurant, which sits right on the paddock at Gulfstream and stay for the Christmas light show in the Villages at Gulfstream.  Rather than spending the day at the races, I bet the first half of the card at home online and then we would be on track for the latter part of the day.  As you can see from the photo of us, the day brought a HUGE change in the weather as it was 43 degrees, with a feel-like temperature of a chilly 39 degrees.  Though it "warmed up" to the mid-60s, it was back in the 50's by the time the light show started after the sun set.  Today was also "Super Santa Saturday" at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans featuring four stakes races.  Before the racing started I posted four "BEST" bets on Facebook for my friends to gather some "free" holiday money:  

Gulfstream Race 8:  Nevada

Gulfstream Race 10:  Let The Kitten Run

BET OF THE DAY:

Fair Grounds Race 3:  The Blushing KD H'Cap:  Daisy Devine

Fair Grounds Race 10:  Bind

In the opener at Gulfstream, it was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play as I had Flopodopolus as the top selection.  According to the statistics, trainer Michael Mareina has three areas that qualify him for Club membership, and two of them applied to 'Flop .... in dirt sprints he's won 12 of 27 over the last two seasons (44%), and with horses coming off a break of 180 days or longer - Flopodopolus was last seen on July 3 - 2011! - Mareina also wins at a remarkable 44% rate.  I felt sure I'd get at least a "fair price" today as the program listed 'Flop at 4/1.  The crowd was onto Mareina and bet the runner down to 3-5 favoritism.  And he earned it as he simply walked with the race, geared down under the wire.  I had doubled the investment, so I was able to collect nearly $20.  A good start!  

I thought I had just as good a selection in the second with another "Club" selection when Todd Pletcher sent out Yes I'm Awesome in an allowance spot.  He dueled for the lead, took over heading for home, but was a close second on the wire.  Grrrrr.  I had five selections from the Fair Grounds, the first was what looked to be an odds-on winner in an allowance race where Divine Providence was the lone speed.  My only concern was that even when a runner is loose on an easy lead at the Fair Grounds, the track - which plays to closers - often eats them up.  Divine Providence was clear by daylight at the furlong marker in deep stretch, only to be caught late.  WOW....good thing I only played the minimum.  In the fourth at Gulfstream there were three Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club qualifiers.  I thought Large Kaufy would be the best price, and he was at 12/1, so I made him my bet.  He ran 8th and last; neither of the other two hit the board!  Double Wow!  Then came the best score of the day, which assured a winning profit for the day.....it was in the 5th at Gulfstream.  

In the fifth we were going 1 1/16th on the turf and it was a claiming race for non-winners of two lifetime.  Normally in spots like this I toss any runner who's already lost in a 2L spot, but #6-Parasol caught my attention.  He was a poor 1-for-11 in his career and had lost in 2L spots previously, but I thought you could make a fairly strong case for him.  First of all, four of his starts were on the dirt, draw a line through those.  Now you were looking at a horse who had a turf record of five for seven in the money finishes.....that's better.  Consider that in his last start he was making his first start for the powerful Team Calabese stable, so he now had "much better" connections.  The statistics show that trainer Luis Ramirez wins with a remarkable 57% of their runners making their second start off a break, like Parasol was doing today; and an even more amazing 62% of the time with their horses stretching out in distance.  For their first start with him, Parasol had gone 7 1/2 furlongs --> today 8 1/2 furlongs!  Ramirez had big numbers in several other categories as well:  turf-40%, routes-43%, claimers-38%.  Just looked like a solid play in spite of the conditioned spot.  I doubled the bet.  It was an exciting race as Parasol forged to the lead with a 16th out and had to hold off the late runners, but he won!  And at a very healthy 3/1, so I was able to cash for over $40!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  

My "BET of the Day" was in the first of the Fair Grounds stakes races, the Blushing KD Handicap.  I had on my sheet that post time was 3:57, so Kim and I were going to leave at 3:00.  My plan was to invest half the bet online before we left and another half on track.  But somehow I had misfigured the Central Standard Time.....post time was at 3:02 pm.  So - having already put in my online "half bet" - I went to add money to it and inadvertently clicked the $1 button instead of $10.....decided to up the ante another notch, so instead of adding $9 I added $14 more to the bet.  Daisy Devine was a Grade 1 winner, and a multiple graded stakes winner as my top selection.  The Blushing KD was a listed $75K stakes and NONE of the remaining horses were stakes winners.  As if this wasn't enough, she was the one and ONLY front runner in the field.  This presented the only dilemma......even more pronounced than the main track's affinity for inhaling front-runners, the turf at the Fair Grounds is very, VERY unkind to front-runners.  Would Daisy have enough class to hold off these wannabe stakes runners?  I decided she did, and made her the "BET of the Day" but if you follow my handicapping adventures you know that a $35 investment is hardly "all in" for what I consider a mortal lock.....i.e. Groupie Doll in the Breeders' Cup at $100 and Wise Dan at the Breeders' Cup at $50.  She broke quickly, but a longshot decided to put pressure on her.  Through the first turn and into the backstretch they were together on the lead, and I thought this was NOT a good thing....the last thing I needed was to have her under pressure!  But about half way down the backstretch Daisy Devine moved away easily on the front.  As they turned for home she was clear by three or four, but here came the late runners.  Jockey Brian Hernandez (who had become a nationally recognized rider when he won the Breeders' Cup Classic - on his birthday no less!) then asked for more and Daisy Devine was LONG GONE!  WHOOO HOOO - AGAIN!  It was great to have a little momentum as we headed out to the races for the remainder of my selections!  

As we arrived on track the 7th at Gulfstream had just concluded.  I had bet on Minister Colin, who had a record of 5/2-1-1 over the GP lawn.....he was second at a big 7/1 - that would have been nice!  We were able to move to the rail and watch the 8th at Gulfstream live where I liked Todd Pletcher's Nevada in a two-turn maiden special spot.  Some had made Nevada their "BEST" of the day, but I wasn't so sure.....I only had doubled the bet.  He was bet down to 8/5 and had no stretch punch - 5th.  Kim headed up to the casino to enjoy some slots action while I had five more selections.  Then we would meet for dinner.  In the second of the Fair Ground stakes races I bet on, I scored again with Tour Guide.  He was the odds-on favorite, and I knew he would be, in the Super Bowl Stakes - a juvenile sprint.  I thought that it was not worth a big bet on a front-running two-year-old at the Fair Grounds.  But he was as good as advertised - I was delighted to win, AGAIN :)  Next on my list was the feature at Gulfstream where if the truth were known I probably would not have a bet, but it was the feature race.  I was backing former graded stakes winner Teaks North, who was listed at 15/1 in this listed race.  He ran like a 15/1 horse - 9th.  I was ready to make my "best" bet of the day at Gulfstream in the finale where I thought Let The Kitten Run would be much the best, but she had scratched!  BOOOOOOOO!  So, I texted Kim and told her that I had over an hour between bets, and could watch the Fair Grounds simulcasts (my last two) on the tv monitors if she wanted to meet for dinner.  So we hooked up in the paddock and went to dinner.  The Yardhouse always is packed and always serves a good meal, we enjoyed it.  And we finished, paid the bill with about ten minutes to the light/music show.  You can see a clip of that this week on my "Week 3 Recap" video!  

The last two selections from New Orleans started with the Bonapaw Stakes, a five and a half furlong turf sprint.  Chamberlain Bridge - who I'd nailed at $15.60 three years ago at the Breeders' Cup - loves this course.  And though probably a step slower now, he still held the edge over the field.  But he dropped W-A-Y back in the field and was a late running fourth.  Disappointment :(  The final race however was almost a co-best of the day, and it comes with an interesting story....... I was on track at Gulfstream in 2010, some twenty months ago, and there was a maiden special race for three year olds.  I had picked Bind as my top bet based on the trainer numbers and his works.  But as post time approached I re-examined the race and for the first time EVER I made a first-time starter a "Prime Time" selection.  Bind was scintilating that day, drawing off by half the length of the stretch and earning a phenomenal 105 speed figure.  That was in a sprint race, and he had the look of a stakes runner for sure.  He came back in a two-turn allowance race at 1-9 odds and could not get by the winner, losing in a photo.  In his third start he again went two turns, and again disappointed at odds-on in another photo loss.  That had been the last time I'd seen him.  Today he was returning, and today's race was a sprint.  His works looked so similar to when he ran first out, and the spot seemed an easy one to me.  What sealed the deal was that DRF handicapper Marcus Hersch had him as his bet of the day.  This was significant because Hersch NEVER lists an odds-on favorite as his top pick, in any race.  A horse may be bet down to odds-on that he selected on top, but he's never got the morning line favorite.  And this is most particularly true of his "best" of the day.  So knowing Bind was going to be odds on and Hersch still made him his best....that said a lot.  I also found it interesting that he commented in his analysis that Bind had been the most impressive maiden winner he'd ever seen.....I second the motion!  Bid sat patiently behind a trio of front-runners, split them handily going into the turn and drew off as TONS the best.  I was so very, VERY happy that for some reason the crowd allowed him to go off at 6/5!  I collected nearly $50!  THANK YOU to all the "value players" who thought they had a better idea!  

So for the day, I'd won with five out of eleven selections - a big 45% win average - and had a healthy profit on the day.  Even better, of the four races I'd posted on Facebook, I had one scratch and won with two of the three others.....anyone who'd played with me would have nearly doubled their money and earned some "free holiday cash!"  You are most welcome everyone!  Happy Handicapping Holidays!  

Sunday's selections for the last day of the racing week are posted online here:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_sun.pdf

Friday December 21

The Bet That Wasn't Made

Today I had originally had five selections, but I passed on the first one (finished 2nd) and my next-to-last scratched, leaving me with three selections.  I was right up on the pace in the 4th, a turf sprint and then stopped on a dime finishing last.  I went with a Todd Pletcher maiden going two turns on the grass - his weakest category - and the best One Mint Julep could do was 4th at 5/2.  And in my final selection Shrinking Violet had all kinds of trouble through the stretch and was narrowly beaten when second.  She had gone off at 6/1 and I was lamenting the lost opportunity at $70+ when she had her number taken down.....would have been even worse to have won and been DQ'd!  But the story of the day, as it turned out came in the fourth.  It was a maiden claiming race and my top pick was Distinctly Bella.  But, because jockey Fernando Jara was off to an 0-for-26 start I was not willing to make the minimum investment.........as you can see below, that was a costly mistake. 

 

Tomorrow is a very light day, with the feature at Gulfstream being an overnight stakes and no racing in New York or California.  But at the Fair Grounds it is "Super Santa Saturday" and I have a few bets.  Kim and I are going out later in the card and then to dinner and enjoy the holiday light show at Gulfstream.  Photos tomorrow......here are my selections for both Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_sat.pdf 

 

Thursday December 20

HORRAY!  I Rebound In A Big Way!

And I Am Very Proud Of Myself!

(Florida Derby Tix!)

As the day started I was STILL very unhappy with the loss by El Padrino yesterday.  An article appeared in the Daily Racing Form (below) and you can see that the writer indicates there was a troubled trip.....I would dispute that.  AND I still believe that as they came through the stretch the horse was not extended in an all out effort to win.  I get that if he is well beaten, but he had a legitimate chance to win.....sigh.  

Anyway, my main point here is that it would be very easy coming off the disappointing week, and then the huge disappointment of yesterday to have backed off my handicapping and wagering.  But instead I was even more determined to WIN!  I headed out to Cypress Bay High to meet with my best friends Jeff Nelson and Shari Bush.  Jeff gave me money for ten people for Florida Derby tickets and I had decided I would take the money to the bank, with the funds I already had, and head out to Gulfstream to get the tickets.  When I got out there I could only lock in the first 17 of the 23 I wanted, but I'm guaranteed to get the others.  I am more than a little intrigued that we might get one of the new box seats for the bulk of our group - and for the same price!  They are closer to the finish and the track.....but no overhead protection.  More on this later.  

So, while I was out there I wanted to make my bets for the day with my track cash (since I'd lost a chunk of it yesterday!).  I had the minimum on Defer Heaven in the 2nd.  He was debuting today, but going for the top owners of the young meet (Ken and Sarah Ramsey) and for hot trainer Wesley Ward with top rider Joel Rosario.  When I watched the replays later in the afternoon I enjoyed watching him sprint clear early and win in a cakewalk!  WHOO HOO, back in the winner's circle!  

Then came not only the "BET of the Day" but the bet that in many way defines me as a handicapper.  I have had similar moments before, but still in spite of years of racing experience and over 11,000 bets in my database STILL you question yourself when you are on a losing streak.  I LOVED Marjor Marvel in the 4th.  He was my pick on Opening Day in one of the Claiming Crown stakes races and was second, very narrowly beaten.  In fact in his last four appearances he was been in three stakes and a $100K allowance.  Today was a starter allowance for $10K!  The last two times Major Marvel raced at this level he romped!  The highest speed figure earned by any of today's rivals on the turf was an 88 - in Major Marvel's last SEVEN races he had earned speed figures that would top that....a 7-times Beyer Advantage.  I planned to bet $40 to WIN - BEFORE the El Padrino incident.  Instead of backing down, I just KNEW I was right and was willing to not only stick with my bet, but to go in even deeper as an even bigger show of confidence in my handicapping.....$50 to WIN!  He was TONS the best!  Right to the front, and seemed under pressure from the get-go to the far turn, but then Javier Castellano opened him up and he was G - O - N - E!!!!  WHOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOO!  

My next bet was in a Maiden Special for two-year-olds.  Is there a Todd Pletcher runner?  Indeed there is!  Just the fact that a Todd Pletcher horse is running is a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club angle!  But one thing I've learned is that Pletcher is simply outstanding with debut runners and/or sophomores at Gulfstream, just as he is with juvenile first timers at Saratoga.  Highestmaintainence has Javier Castellano on board - a 45% angle; and is owned by top New York owner Michael Repole, who if nothing else LOVES to win!  He doesn't enter horses to "get a race in them" - he wants to win.  The sharp series of works at Pletcher's Palm Meadows base said she was ready to roll today.  I was amazed, as I usually am with Pletcher runners, that she was allowed to get away at 9/5 (probably some people reluctant after yesterday's Pletcher dual disappointments), but not me!  I tripled the bet and was handsomely rewarded when Highestmaintainence came rolling home in a dominant fashion!  I cashed for over $40!  

For the day, three-for-four....profit of $50....and got the Florida Derby tickets.  A WONDERFUL day at Gulfstream!  Back again tomorrow; see my selections online:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_fri.pdf 

Wednesday December 19

HUGE Disappointment - Not the way I saw the day going

After having a less than successful week last week, though to be fair had the DQ and photo gone the other way I'd be singing a different tune, I was CERTAIN that today was a big day.  If not in profits, in winning.  Trainer Todd Pletcher had three runners today who all looked EASILY best.  And sure enough, in the first race of the day Chee surged by in the stretch and won going away.  

I then headed out to see the big ones......and went 0-for for the day.  El Padrino was second, and what bothered me most was that it seemed to me that he really wasn't being asked for his best.  It would have been one thing if he'd been out of the race, but he was within a length of the leader through the stretch.....and that horse had not been to the races in fifteen months!  Very disappointing day.  Back at it tomorrow and I have a couple of "big bets" on the Thursday card - and am MOST hopeful of a bounce-back day......

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_wed.pdf 

Eclipse Award Voting / "Todd Pletcher Day"

 

Yesterday the Daily Racing Form offered fans the opportunity to vote on the Eclipse awards for this year....which will be held for the first time at Gulfstream Park (January 19).  Here were my votes:

Older Male:  Fort Larned

Older Female:  Royal Delta

3-year-old Male:  I'll Have Another

3-year-old Female:  Lady of Shamrock

Juvenile Male:  Shanghai Bobby

Juvenile Female:  Executiveprivilege

Male Turf:  Little Mike

Female Turf:  Winter Memories

Top Trainer:  Dale Romans

Top Jockey:  Rosie Napravnik

Apprentice Jockey:  Irad Ortiz, Jr.

HORSE OF THE YEAR:  WISE DAN

Today, Wednesday December 19 is "Todd Pletcher Day" (to me!) as he has THREE top runners who should dominate:  #2 Chee in the 1st, #4 Oistin's Town in the 7th, and .....

Today's BET of the Day:
#4 El Padrino in the 4th

See all my selections for today here:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_wed.pdf

Week 2:  December 12 - 16

Video Recap

Ten wins for the week!  Whooo Hooo!  Racing continues on Wednesday December 19, where it will be "Todd Pletcher Day" - at least according to my handicapping :)

Selections:  http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_wed.pdf

Sunday December 16

End The Week With Two More WINS

The final day of racing for the week and I notched two more wins to bring the total winners for the week to ten.  I went out for the last five races, but scored my first winner in the opener with Whatsnottolike, a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play.  Trainer Jamie Ness scores with 47% of his runners in claiming races for tags below $40K; and he scores at a nearly 40% rate with layoff runners AND with horses owned by the powerful Midwest Thoroughbreds Corp.  Whatsnottolike took control right out of the gate, was clear by daylight in the stretch, and then here came longshot Tickitocki....SOOOOO CLOSE!  PHOTO finish.  I honestly thought - like yesterday - I'd won both live and with the slo-mo replay and I did - of sorts......DEAD HEAT.  Took what would have been a near $30 payoff and cut it in half, but I was glad to cash the ticket!  

I then had two really good handicapping selections where I was rewarded for the "good pick" but not with cash.  In the second Lucky Empress was a good 4th at 11/1 and even better in the 4th where Heiressofthecrown was sent off at 21-1 and was a close second.  Oh my, that would have been nice!  

My "big score" of the day came in the 5th, which I arrived in time to see live - Daddy's Jewel was the only runner in the field of this claiming event who'd ever won going a one-turn mile.  That has pointed out many, many winners in the past.  He was 5/1 in the program and was 3/1 as they got into the gate.  He swept by the field on the turn and was clear through the stretch under jockey Joe Bravo.  He'd clicked down to 2/1, but I was happy with the $6.40 payoff and when I cashed for over $30!  WHOOO HOOOO!  

That was it for the day - Rhythm Queen in the 6th was 4/1, broke slowly and never factored (8th).  I was on the rail with a pair of first-time racing fans who were asking me questions for the 7th and they said they would cheer for my horse, #12-Zulbaby who was 17-1....dead last.  In the 8th my pick scratched, my second pick won, and I was so close to betting it - he was the "Bet of the Day" for the on-air analyst....sigh....in the featured Harlan's Holiday I really did not think either of the Calder horses were good enough to beat Delegation coming out of a good 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Mile.  He ran second behind the Calder horse Csaba - who I'd bet in Philadelphia on Pennsylvania Derby Day and he did absolutely nothing.  Figures.  And in the finale I thought West Side Glory would be an easy winner.  He was the lone speed.  Left the gate at 8/5 and was all alone on the lead through an easy pace, turned for home in front and instead of opening up on the field, he stopped like he was shot and finished next to last :(  

Racing resumes for the last week of action before the Christmas holiday on Wednesday!  Check out my Week 2 Recap video in tomorrow's posting!

Saturday December 15

Another 30% Winning Day - Two National Stakes Wins!

The feature race at Gulfstream today was the Grade 3 Dania Stakes on the turf and it was a complete toss-up to me; in fact I only had one race where I liked the selection enough to triple the bet.  So, with no "big bets" on track and today being the first bowl game of the college football season I decided to stay home and play online while I watched tv.  I contemplated all day Thursday whether I wanted to handicap around the country since I wasn't going out to the races and in the end I decided I would - but I would be very selective.  Even after I'd finished handicapping, I was hesitant to play anywhere but Gulfstream today.  But in the end I decided that I had made the selections and I'd be sorry if I didn't, so I set up my computer by my chair and watched races all day while watching college football on the big screen......mixed results --> I scored with two major stakes races; hit with all three of my "big bets" on the day; but saw my "BET of the Day" scratch on the way to the track AND lost my chance at a very profitable day with an oh-so-close photo finish loss.  

The day opened at Aqueduct where DRF Handicapper Dave Liftin had his "best" of the day, whom I was a big fan of - Long River in the 2nd, a Maiden Special for juveniles.  In his last he'd earned a speed figure that towered above the rest of the field AND the race had turned out to be a KEY race with multiple winners exiting it.  Long River rated off the pace setter to the turn, moved through an opening on the inside and was G-O-N-E.  Only paid $2.50, but I collected nearly $20 on my triple investment.  A good start....... 

In my first bet at Gulfstream I liked Sell Sell Sell in the second.  He too came up the rail, was bumped and bothered, and still finished second.  "OBJECTION!" - I thought that even though it wouldn't make up for the money lost yesterday, I was due a reversal by the stewards.  They looked - and decided it wasn't bad enough to take down the winner.....really?  WOW.  I missed in the 3rd at Gulfstream where I led into the stretch on the turf and stopped like I was shot and then I scored with my second of "big investment."  In the 5th at Gulfstream we were on the turf for a non-winners-of-two-lifetime and hot owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey had an entry:  Steal the Dance and Tipsy.  I thought either was a strong candidate, though I slightly preferred the former, but as an entry (two separate trainers and jockeys, so they'd both run) I thought they were formidable.  I tripled the bet and Tipsy was much the best on the wire with Steal the Dance rallying wide to be third.  Collected nearly $40 on my triple investment this time!  

I was second best in the 6th at Gulfstream, second after leading the length of the stretch at Aqueduct in their co-feature, and then a non-threatening third at the Fair Grounds before the race that turned the overall outcome of the day - the 7th at Gulfstream.  This was another turf event and the prohibitive favorite was #12-Console.  But I didn't even have him in my top three, and in fact I was TRIPLING the bet on my pick!  I re-examined my handicapping, and no - I had it right I thought.  My pick was #6 Which Market who had nearly paired Beyers, just missed in a stakes at Aqueduct and was dropping into an optional claimer today for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.  This is significant as according to the Gulfstream Handicapper, McLaughlin scores with 44% of those kinds of moves.  Top rider John Velazquez had him flying on the outside, a little wide out of the turn, and on the wire it was so close.  I truly thought live and on replay I'd won!  At 3/1 I was about to haul in over $60.  But then the photo came up.....2nd.  Oh no.....sigh....... 

No time to boo hoo over near misses, it was the feature race at Aqueduct, the Gravesend Handicap.  The field was originally made up of six runners and the likely favorite was Saginaw, who had already won NINE TIMES in 2012.  He was a stellar NY-bred stakes star, and had run well in all but one open company race.  The Gravesend was an open spot, but he fit nicely here.  The problem I had was this - it was at six furlongs and he'd never won at this distance, in fact two back he'd lost as a prime-time bet for me at this distance; and there was a top flight speedster on the rail that could make it difficult for him.  But as the board opened I saw that this rail runner (and one other) had scratched.  Now, the loss at six panels previously looked not nearly as significant (especially since he'd broken poorly that day as well).  So I doubled my already planned double-down bet and he was a "Bet of the Day" selection.  The "other" front runner (who was somehow bet down to 5/2 by the "value" bettors) took the lead but Saginaw was right on his hip and I knew it was just a matter of time before my jockey asked and I blew by......and the best news is that he went off at a remarkable 1-2 on the board.  He was clearly a 1-5 runner in here, but I was "stealing" from the other handicappers.  Easy - Peasy - Pie!  WHOOO HOOOOO!  

Minutes later I scored with my only bet at Tampa when Normative Appeal ran away from the field through the stretch.  I was off the board in three races and in my BET of the Day, Zenyatta's little sister Eblouissante was scratched when she injured herself leaving the receiving barn to head to the paddock :(  But in my next, at the Fair Grounds top rider Rosie Napravnik had Tetradrachm flying on the outside to be JUST up in time, my fifth winner on the day!  

I was off the board in two, and third in another of a series of price plays until the final race of the day on my selection sheet - the national race of the day, the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park for 2-year-olds.  It was very unusual this past November when at the Breeders' Cup the east-coast juvenile star Shanghai Bobby was able to easily defeat the west coast stars, and many thought this was indicative of a better crop of youngsters on the east coast.  Well, Shanghai Bobby is trained by Todd Pletcher and even when this one had already won two stakes races Pletcher had said in late August that his "best" two-year-old had not run yet, a colt named Violence.  When he debuted this summer I had $50 to win on him and he won (in a photo!  Whew!).  But he came right back to draw off handily in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes.  So, when Pletcher sent his "best" all the way across the country AND top rider Javier Castellano came with him, I knew they thought they believed they had a great shot.  Then on Friday I watched a DRF video analysis of the race.  Dan Illman and Mike Beer pointed out that over the last five years Todd Pletcher was 0-for-26 in situations shipping out west in stakes to run on synthetic surfaces; and that in general dirt-to-synthetic was just not a winning move.  I reconsidered my position, and then I thought - it doesn't matter if Violence is truly as good as they think.  Well, he was really impressive!  In spite of a slow pace to close into, he just blew by the west-coast runners like they were tied to the rail and drew off easily.  I was delighted to get 6/5 on the what may be the best colt in the country as we near the end of the 2012 season and begin to look forward to the spring classics.  

So for the day I scored with six of twenty selections - a wonderful, but oh-so-predictable 30%.  But the difference in the day came from (a) the near miss in the Gulfstream 7th and the fact that the "longshot" winner on the day for me paid $5.20 - tough to grind out a profit if you don't even have one double-digit winner.  Tomorrow I have several selections at Gulfstream and I am going out for the last five races.  My selections, as always can be found on my selection page:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html 

Another WINNING Day!

Friday December 14

After winning three of four yesterday I was looking to continue my winning ways today.  I spent the morning Christmas shopping and got home about a half hour before the first race, which had my first selection.  Love Numbers went off at 4/5 and won for fun.  I only had the minimum on her, but I'll take the winnings!  

I had planned a triple investment in the 3rd, but my pick scratched.  I won the 4th, but had no bet.  In the sixth I went off at 5/1 and was midpack to the far turn, but then faded to run 9th.  I passed on the sixth and then it was time for my first double investment, which was also a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play.  Trainer Todd Pletcher wins 40% in nearly every category, so when one of his runners shows up it is almost an automatic play.  But today even more so.....the filly's name was Stopshoppingmaria.  She had run second in her debut at Saratoga in August 2011 to eventual juvenile filly champion My Miss Aurelia.  She came back to score in her second start with the fastest speed rating of any two-year-old filly.  Then she ran second in the Grade 1 Frizette - all of these on the main track.  Off that runner-up performance she ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf at Churchill Downs when we were there - set the pace, but couldn't hold on.  She'd faltered three more times in turf sprints, but today there didn't look to be any other filly that matched her speed, even on her less than best effort, and she was much the best.  She was allowed to go off at 8/5, so I collected $26 and was guaranteed a winning day with only one more play in the final.  

In the finale I liked a Bill Mott trained filly coming off a layoff - a long-time winning angle.  The fact that top jockey Joel Rosario was on board just added to the attraction.  Rosario had her right off the leaders and then turning for home she drew clear.  A filly behind her steadied once she'd passed and the inquiry sign went up afterwards, but I'd won by open daylight so I wasn't worried.  And at 3/1 I was looking to collect over $40 .... I was delighted as it appeared I was going 3-for-4 again, and today making close to $50!  But then the announcement, I was blamed for the incident and moved down to fourth..... BOOOOOOOO :(  

Tomorrow is typically my day at the races, but this weekend I'm heading out on Sunday.  Still, I have selections online for tomorrow:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_sat.pdf 

Thursday December 13

THREE - out of - FOUR!

Today was one of "those" days that make handicapping a very enjoyable hobby!  I had posted on Facebook that I had five selections on the nine race program, but before the racing began one of them was scratched, leaving me with just four.  I passed on the first (when none of my top three were in the money).  My first selection came in the second race where I Orient Moon was being send out by "The Main Man" at Gulfstream Park, trainer Todd Pletcher.  Orient Moon was the prototype of the kind of runner that has made Pletcher the top trainer EIGHT years running.  He had run spectacularly HERE in his debut last winter, and was coming off a layoff to return here.  But, I was a little reluctant to back him because by this time last year Pletcher had already scored many times - currently he has only had two wins.  Hmmmmm.  Further complicating the picture was that in Orient Moon's two races after his big win last winter he had not even been closed, being pounded as the odds-on favorite.  Still, as I wrote in my analysis, you are "either all in on Pletcher at Gulfstream" or you are not.  If you try to guess where he's live, you will end up missing so many winners - trust me, I know from experience!  Orient Moon ran back to his big debut win by sitting just off a longshot leader into the turn.  He then drew even and drew off with authority to score.....I collected nearly $25!  Whooo hoooo, off to a good start! 

 I passed the third (note my top pick won as the favorite) and was back at the windows (virtually as I was playing online today) for the fourth which was a turf sprint.  I was very hopeful that the crowd would bet down the program favorite because I liked Varsity, who was a multiple winner (2-for-3) sprinting over the Gulfstream turf.  As I watched the races on HRTV, the analysts thought that I would be compromised by other speedsters and that the second choice would run by Varsity in the stretch.  NOT SO FAST my friend!  Varsity bounded out of the gate and was quickly in front....and not just in front, but in front by multiple lengths.  Even though the pace fractions were lightning quick (21.2 and 44.1) he looked to be running well within himself.  Afterwards the analysts noted that "you had to be feeling good about your pick if you had Varsity the way he was running on the lead turning for home" - and I WAS!  He walked with it and I collected nearly $25 again!  

I passed the fifth (where my top choice won), the sixth, and then the 7th was where my top pick scratched.  This led us to the eighth, another turf sprint.  My pick was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play with Kirk Ziadie as the trainer.  And I liked the fact that Quiz Whiz was in post eleven because that would give him a good stalking trip from the outside and not force him to run as quickly.  He went off at a juicy 2/1, but jockey Paco Lopez gunned him right to the front with an 11/1 longshot.  He sat just off his flank and easily ran by that one and was clear into the stretch.  But by then the damage was done and a longshot blew by him in deep stretch, and then he weakened and couldn't even hold second, finishing third.  

While I was watching HRTV the analyst prior to the 7th said he too liked Quiz Whiz, but that he believed there was a real standout in the final race, so just in case he was going to back wheel the double.  So when the 11/1 winner was named official he was looking at a nice payout, and his "standout" was my top selection - Ambitoness.  He had been claimed for $25K two back in California and then ran a good 2nd for a $32K tag.  Today he was in a starter allowance where the conditions were for $10K runners.  He was MUCH the class of the field.  And as the analysts pointed out after the race, top rider Joel Rosario gave a very "professional" ride to the favorite.  Knowing he had the best horse, who had good speed, he sent him right to the front.....and never looked back!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  

Three out of four for the day and a nice profit in spite of all three being winners!  Back at it tomorrow before the weekend and this week's stakes races.  You can find my selections on my selection page here:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html