Gulfstream 2012-13

February 23

Fountain of Youth Day

Back In The Winner's Circle!

I finished with NINE wins today - that's the good news.....the disconcerting news was that I had a single win locally - though it was with a "prime time" investment in one of the big stakes races; and I guess I can take solace that I was three photo finish 2nd's away from having a HUGE day and a big profit.......  

The day started off with a little anxiety as once I got halfway down the Gulfstream on I-95 traffic came to a stand-still.  I was about fifteen minutes - in normal driving - away from the track, and would have been there about 30 minutes early when this happened.  Because I had planned the cushion into the travel time I was able to make it for the opener.  But I literally parked the car, speed-walked into the facility, made the bet, went straight to the rail and they were loading into the gate!  Second.....wow.  But then I went on a three race tear and I thought, "uh oh, it's going to be one of THOSE days!"  - whooo hoooo!  In the second at Aqueduct Keep Bustin sat just off the leader and drove by to be clear on the wire for my first score of the day.  Ten minutes later the odds-on favorite at Tampa romped home as much the best.  I'd doubled the bet on Big Debbie, but didn't make much profit.  And then right back to Aqueduct where it was a photo finish!  I went against the favorite with Regal Strike.  He had the best speed figures, he had the class edge, and he'd won at the distance more than anyone else in the field.  The problem was he hadn't won since 2011!  YIKES!  But I offset that with the knowledge that he was first off the claim by an outfit that wins with 28% of those.  He surged to the lead at the furlong marker, but here came the favorite.  The favorite collared him at the 16th pole and looked to have the race won.  If you watch the highlight video you can tell the track announcer is certain of this.  But then in the final 100 yards Regal Strike seemed to find another gear and it was desparately close on the wire.  I was pretty certain that the head bob went my way, and when the photo came up, I was indeed the winner (on the inside)!  THREE-IN-A-ROW!  Now we're talking'!  

Over the next three races I was right there....3rd, 3rd, and 4th, with the first and last of the sequence being on track to run my Gulfstream streak to 0-for-3 on the day.  In the 3rd at the Fair Grounds it was the Gentily Stakes.  It was scheduled to go on the turf, but it was a near certainty to be moved to the main track.  Sunbean was my "main track only" choice - he was on the also-eligible list for the featured Grade 2 Risen Star, the prep for the Louisiana Derby.  But if he went here he was a most likely winner.  I can't explain why I didn't up the bet on him - in retrospect I think I had planned on the minimum because it was scheduled on the turf and simply went with that when I made the bet.  He was ultra impressive in drawing off against an overmatched group.  

Over the next hour I missed on five consecutive races, but I was delighted to run into one of my favorite teacher friends, Cindy Joseph.  She was on track with her husband and another couple and I smiled when she said to the other girl, "I told you he'd be here!"  Cindy and I go back over 20 years, back to the Western High School days.  She was considered one of the hottest female teachers then, and I think she's just as good-looking today.  If it weren't for my honey Kim, she'd be the "cougar" of Cypress Bay High!  

Finally after an hour of missing I scored in the opener at Santa Anita.  I normally automatically double the bet on a Brad Free "BEST" of the day.  But in this maiden claimer I just didn't see it.  Still, he looked interesting enough that if Free made him the "best" I'd at least go along for the ride.  WINNER!  Then another streak of so-close-but-no-cigar picks.  In the first of the graded stakes at Gulfstream I thought that Dreaming of Julia would be the favorite, and I had never been convinced she was as good as everyone said.  The second choice was a stretch-out sprinter who looked to control the pace.  But I didn't know if she'd get the distance and Dreaming of Julia was a Grade 1 winner.  My initial thoughts were accurate.  The lone speed wired the field and Dreaming of Julia was second best as the 4/5 favorite.  I was second best at Aqueduct when instead of backing the likely short-priced favorite with a double or triple bet, I went for a price.....second again.  In the first of the graded stakes at the Fair Grounds the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap stayed on the turf.  I really liked Wilcox Inn, I thought he would inhale the field through the lane.  Instead he shot right to the front!  First of all, front runners rarely if ever win on the FG turf course, and second of all if you put a closer on the lead they NEVER last.  Sure enough......led into the lane and then faded to third.  At Tampa in the Super Stakes my pick faded badly to be 8th, but I was at least right in saying the favorite would NOT win.  My next win came in the second graded stakes at the Fair Grounds.  Mark Valeski had disappointed in his return to the races last time out at short odds.  Daily Racing Form "Weekend Warrior" columnist Mike Watchmaker went against him on the premise that he should have won last time, so there was no guarantee he'd move forward today.  I disagreed.  I thought the last was a case of not being fully cranked and today was the day.  I tripled the bet.  He was saving ground down the backstretch and kept thinking the jockey had better get him off the rail or he'd be trapped.  Sure enough, as they turned for home he had no where to run!  Finally at the furlong marker, and thankfully the Fair Ground stretch is gigantic, he shifted outside and drew off impressively!  

Yay me!  I thought I might go on a tear as I had as I had five races upcoming that I had a lot of confidence in.  Disappointment immediately.....right after Mark Valeski scored I doubled down on Splendid Fortune at Santa Anita.  He was the clear speed of the race with an inside post and was certain to be LONG gone.....until he broke dead last - wow, sigh....racing, you just never know.  But I bounced right back in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf Handicap here at Gulfstream.  I was so confident that I considered making Data Link my "BEST" of the day.  But then the more I looked at Violence in the Fountain of Youth, and read Todd Pletcher's comments I was going to make him the play of the day.  Still I went "Prime Time" with Data Link.  He sat a comfortable trip, although he was in and among horses throughout, which sometimes bothers thoroughbreds.  My big concern came at the top of the lane - watch the recap video above - he was SOOOOOO wide!  But he was simply the best and scored under wraps.  I collected over $40 and NOW I'm beginning to roll!  

Right back into the winner's circle at the Fair Grounds.  The Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra is the New Orleans prep for the Fair Ground Oaks.  When I looked at the field it seemed clear to me that the Pletcher filly, Unlimited Budget was clearly the one to beat.  I was surprised she was 5/2 in the program and had hopes of a price.  But she went off at 3/2, which was a fair price.  I was concerned when she seemed far out of it with a loose-on-the-lead front runner.  Reminiscent of the Davona Dale I thought.  But then I saw the fractions.....:45 and change and 1:08 and change - especially at the Fair Grounds?  No way she lasts....as heads turned for home here came the field, and swooping by with ease was Unlimited Budget who was clearly best.  She moves to the top of my Kentucky Oaks fillies :)  

Less than ten minutes later I had my "BEST" of the day at Santa Anita.  Unbridled's Note had done something last fall that is MOST unusual.  The most unique course in North America is the down-the-mountain sprint turf course at Santa Anita.  I love handicapping those races because the winner is almost always the runner who is most accomplished down that course.  You cannot overestimate the importance of experience down the hill.  Well, Unbridled's Note shipped out west to prep for the Breeders' Cup and made her first turf start down the hill in the Grade 3 Monrovia....and she won!  It was no surprise she went off as the favorite in the BC Turf Sprint, but I had other ideas with Mizdirection, who nailed her in the final strides (paying $13+ and I collected over $100!).  Today Unbridled's Note made her 2013 debut in an overnight handicap, the Joe Hernandez Handicap.  With experience down the hill, and being a graded stakes winner she would not have to be at her best to win.  But unlike those two big efforts in the fall she went right to the front.  As they came off the hill and crossed the main track she looked long gone, but then here came a price horse right to her neck.  It was a thrilling stretch duel and the CLOSEST of photo finishes.  Much like the Aqueduct race I was pretty sure that on the wire it was my nose that was in front.  They showed the slow motion many times until finally my number came up!  WHOOP WHOOP!  That's four stakes wins in a row and four out of five big, added money bets I've cashed!  

And next was the "BET of the Day" in the Fountain of Youth.  Violence was sent off at 3/5 and I thought that was fair.  The pace - just like the Davona Dale and Rachel Alexandra was wicked.  Violence was tracking in third and moved on the turn.  He collared the leader coming out of the turn and was clear into the stretch.  My first reaction was that he'd moved too soon with the stretch run still to come after tracking that swift pace.  But then I knew the finish was the "first finish line" in this 1 1/16th mile race, so the stretch was short.  On the outside came my second choice, Orb who'd won two in a row (and had been third to Violence in their sprint debut at Saratoga).  He had the momentum and collared him with a 16th to go.  Oh no, but then Violence surged......photo finish!  But I knew.....second best today.  The first of the three late photos that cost me - this one to the tune of nearly $50.  I left after that and watched the rest on replays on HRTV that evening......... 

In the Grade 2 Risen Star, my pick Palace Malice was a nice 5/1 and was in the blanket finish, but was clearly third.  The winner, incidently paid over $270 for a $2 bet!  Go figure.  In the finale at Gulfstream, a maiden 3-year-old turf event I doubled the bet on the Pletcher runner who went off at 6/1!  He was flying at the finish.....PHOTO .... second - lost out on a potential $70.  And in the last bet of the day, the feature at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 San Carlos, I had the lone speed in Comma to the Top.  But an outside pressed him through a :44 and change half going seven furlongs.  He put him away and was clear into the stretch.  But as the wire neared you could tell he was tiring.....WHERE'S THE WIRE!  Just couldn't quite last at 6/1.....ANOTHER $70 down in a photo finish.  That is nearly $200 in those three late photos......sigh.....but it was a great day of racing!