A BIG Finish To January!
January 31
What a G - R - E - A - T way to finish off the month! It was somewhat of a surprise, and I'd even thought about this prior to the racing, because there were no "big" investments - no "prime time" selections - no "Bet of the Day" selections. And my thought was that last winter one of my best days was Holy Bull Stakes Day when I didn't have a single bet over $10. And so it was today.......In my first selection I had doubled the bet on Glamour Puss. She had missed in a photo finish in her debut, then won convincingly. In her first start against winners she was second behind a repeat winner but six clear of the show horse. The crowd saw what I did and made her the even money favorite. She pressed the pace and took over turning for home, but could not hold off the late running price horse - 2nd. I passed the 3rd and 4th. In the fifth I put Brilliant Katie on top. When I was teaching at Cypress Bay, one of my very favorite students of my entire career was Katie Bonilla. So, anytime I see the name "Katie" she is the first thing that comes to mind. I'd never pick the filly here because her name was Katie, but I have to admit that her name jumped off the page at first glance because of it.....
As I looked over the race the most prominent thing that stood out to me was that there was a lot of speed in here and that the likely winner would come from off the pace. Brilliant Katie had just this running style! As I watched the race on HRTV the two analysts gave her brief consideration, but both picked other horses....and even named three or four other contenders for multi-race tickets that did NOT include her. But as they turned for home 'Katie was in perfect position, and she drew off with authority at a nice 3/1 price. The two "national" analysts had missed, but I had scored! Whoooo Hoooo.....thanks Katie!
That gave me a slight profit for the day after two races, but nothing to write home about. In the 7th I missed at 9/2 when 4th in a marathon turf event. That brought me to the 6th where I had been faced with a bit of a dilemma. I've used the Gulfstream Handicapper throughout the meeting to help point out winners, and two of the most successful angles have been when a horse trained by Kirk Ziadie runs for a claiming tag of less than $40K - that's a 63% winning angle, and the other is when trainer Jamie Ness sends out a runner for less than $40K - a 47% winning angle. So in the 7th, a $20K claiming event, they BOTH had a runner entered, in fact Ziadie had TWO entered! Uh oh.....
As you can see in my analysis I did NOT go with the big 67% angle on Ziadie. Author Jim Mazur has often said about using his handicapping books, you should use the numbers in conjunction with your own handicapping skills - not use them blindly. Such was the case here because both of Ziadie's horses looked to have had trouble finding the winner's circle, even when they seemed clearly best. As I expected, my pick Kaleidosound was not the favorite. And when the gate sprung open she was left behind the field....oh no! Even worse, jockey Javier Castellano rushed her up the rail and blew by the field to take the lead heading into the turn. I can't tell you how many times I've seen this happen, and it is nearly always the same result - the jockey (usually an inexperienced one) has burned up all the horse's energy recovering from the poor break and as they turn for home it is a gradual fade. But this is why Javier Castellano is an excellent jockey. He knew he had the best horse! As they hit the turn and then headed for home, instead of fading Kaleidosound opened up and romped home by daylight! My double investment brought me over $30 - unheard of with a Jamie Ness-trained runner! YAY!
And then it was the "Race of the Day" - though I didn't know it at the time :) I think one of the toughest races to handicap are turf sprints. With the short distance, usually five or five and one-half furlongs; the quick run to the turn; and then the pace dynamics, the result is so often determined by how a horse breaks and the luck of the trip. So handicapping the best horse is NOT always what points out the winner. Such was the case in the ninth where 3-year-old fillies were going 5 panels on the turf. I even wrote to open my analysis of the race, " ....Races don't come much more wide-open that this one....lightly raced sophomore fillies, many trying a turf sprint for the first time, and NONE of them with multiple wins over the surface!...." I picked #11-Sunrise Kitty who was 6/1 in the program and I even noted that because it was such a wide-open event, I wanted a price runner. What had appealed to me were these facts - she had won her last start, a turf sprint, when breaking from the far outside post. She'd stalked the pace and drew off with authority. Top rider Javier Castellano was on board for me again, and trainer Jason Servis showed a 21% winning percentage with turf sprinters. And my favorite angle with Kitty was that in her last, which was her first turf race, she had shown a huge improvement in her speed figure when switching surfaces. As they broke from the gate the chicklets along the bottom of the screen showed Sunrise Kitty - who was pressing the pace - had gone off at a juicy 8/1! She turned for home with a narrow advantage, but here came the favorite.....As they were just yards out it was one head up and one head down......
They hit the wire, PHOTO FINISH!.........if I had been pressed to guess, I would have said I thought I'd won. But I was far from certain; then the official photo came up......
YES! Sunrise Kitty wins! And the big $18.20 payoff netted me a return of nearly $50! I missed in the last race, but it didn't matter. For the day I had scored on three of six selections, and cashed tickets worth nearly $100! It was a great finish to the day. Later in the evening I was able to put together my statistics for the month of January, and I'd racked up another month at a big 30%+ winning percentage! The only drawback continues to be this winter the fact that my winning horses, unlike Sunrise Kitty, are going off at short-priced odds. Perhaps Kitty jumps start a big February!
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