Gulfstream 2012-13

ANOTHER Winning Day!

Sunday February 3

What a G - R - E - A - T Week!

Well, my Mom's good luck vibe continued to do it's thing today, and in a surprising way.  As I looked over my selections when I printed in the morning I thought that I'd have a hard time having a big day with all minimum bets, except in the opener where I tripled the investment on what figured to be a low-odds favorite.  But, as is so often the case in racing, nothing was as it seemed!  In the opener Starship Titan - a Kirk Ziadie 40% Club selection - was allowed to go off at a healthy 2/1.....but he was only second best.  Hard to recover from that with a string of minimum bets.  My first winner came, and I K-N-E-W this would happen because it is just what DOES happen in handicapping so often (I should have known better), in the second where the pick was another Kirk Ziadie 40% Club runner, Southern Dunn.  As I wrote the analysis on Saturday I stated that I didn't have nearly as much confidence in this one as in the opener, but it should be an all-Ziadie double.  As I listed my wager at 1/3 that of the first I KNEW that the first one would disappoint at short odds and the second one would win at short odds.....and I'd be 50% but behind in the betting.  Could not have been more prophetic as Southern Dunn just walked home as tons the best......wow.  

In the 4th my selection was 7/1 and a non-threatening fourth.  But the "score of the day" came in the 5th.  And what was ironic was that throughout the race I didn't know it was the "score of the day."  As you can see in all the photos, see above as an example, the odds of the top four runners are constantly displayed through the running of the race.  But when the HRTV telecast of the 5th was running the little chicklets were nowhere to be found.  Playing a Joke, the #3 horse, stalked the leaders, took the lead into the stretch and scored handily.  I looked at my sheet and he was 6/1 on the program, so I was hoping maybe he went off at 3/1, or even 7/2......nope, paid $15.40 on his 6/1 post-time odds.  That netted me a return of nearly $40 and guaranteed another winning day!  My Mom's good luck charm continues to work it's magic!  

In the 8th I truly believe I had the best horse and it WOULD have been a big score again, but the racing luck needed in a full-field of turf runners wasn't in my corner.  My pick was Medea who was a Euro import who really had not shown a lot overseas, but I reasoned that the mediocre runners there would beat good runners here - as is so often the case.  She lagged far, far back entering the backstretch, but the pace was swift and as they neared the far turn she was rallying strongly on the inside.  But then traffic trouble caused her to slow, then come to a near stop as she was checked sharply while the 11-1 leader opened up.  Medea was forced about six wide to find clear running room into the stretch and cut the lead from double digits to less than two on the wire......sigh...... A nowhere-to-be-found 8th in the final Gulfstream play of the day as the 2/1 favorite, ended the day in Hallandale, but I had one race left to watch.....my BET OF THE DAY!  

The horse I really believe should have won the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall, Game On Dude was running in the Grade 2 San Antonio as a final prep race before "The Big Cap" - the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap - in about a month.  It was a short field, reduced to four runners with a race-day scratch, and he looked long gone as the speed of the race.  But when Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was interviewed in the paddock prior to the race and asked about concerns he noted that 'Dude was doing well, but in a short field like this you worried about a pace scenario where a longshot would force you to run too fast, too early; and that he had instructed jockey Mike Smith that if 'Dude broke slowly to let him sit off the longshot because he was clearly the fastest and best in the race.  Well, Game on Dude broke sharply and went right to the front.  But a 20-1 longshot was having no part of him being loose on the lead and they battled through the first turn.  As they turned down the backstretch the opening fraction was a sharp :23 and change.....a bit fast for nine furlongs.  They continued to duel for another quarter mile in a wicked :46 and change.  I even noted the longshot jockey seemed to be talking to Smith - probably saying "you're not stealing this one my friend!"  But as they hit the far turn and one of the closers began to make his run, Smith shook the reins and the Dude was L - O - N - G gone under a hand ride!  Only paid $2.10, but as I've often said, as much as I'd like to make a lot of money it is more about being right and putting my money where my mouth is!  

 The win by 'Dude capped a remarkable week that saw me have FOUR consecutive winning days on the week (all coinciding with my Mom's visit) and a clear profit on all four days.....the best streak of the winter!  Tomorrow I'll be putting together the weekly highlight video and begin to look forward to Donn Handicap Day next Saturday where there is a great card featuring four stakes races!