End The Week On WINNING Note!

Sunday February 24

Today was Gulfstream Ladies Turf Sprint Day, and I had my "BET of the Day" in that race!  When I began handicapping for today's races I was hoping to have at least one more significant runner that I really liked, but I wasn't going to MAKE the race fit my bet.  And as I went through the card I had several runners I had strong opinions on, and one in particular.  In the opener I had a price play on the turf where Al Agsa was dropping from MSW company after showing early speed.  Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is listed as a 44% winner with class droppers by the Gulfstream Handicapper.  But I did not double the bet because this past week I had tracked and documented all my GP Handicapper plays and found that they had not provided me with any significant edge, and in fact if I had just used Todd Pletcher as my sole edge I'd have been better off overall.  Al Aqsa went off at 6/1 and ran like it - 6th.  In the third I really thought I had a "gimme" in Carried Interest.  He had won his debut in sizzling time.  In his second start he ran in the Grade 2 Futurity and again set wicked fractions.  He was run down by Overanalyze, a Pletcher colt who'd gone on to win graded stakes, but he held second over a next out winner.  He looked long gone today.  He dueled through a swift pace, but I wasn't concerned; but that rival away and opened up briefly in the lane.  Then here came my second choice, who wanted a melt-down on the front end.  City of Weston came to Carried Interest and they dueled for a 16th of a mile and finally Carried Interest gave way in the final fifty yards, second.  Sigh.....  In the fifth I thought Shock'emagain would be loose on the lead, but instead he sat third to the lane, then outfinished his pace rivals, but was third best behind two closers.  In the 6th it was a Maiden Special for sophomores and I went against a Pletcher runner!  I went with Flores Island who was 3rd behind Unlimited Budget - who remained unbeaten by winning the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra on Saturday at the Fair Grounds.  She had two bullet works for Bill Mott and looked primed to fire.  It was a three way photo finish........the good news is the Pletcher filly is second on the rail, the bad news is I'm the #4 on the outside - great race, no money :(

Finally I found my way to the winner's circle in the 7th.  It was a claiming race at the bottom level, $6,250, and my pick was #10-La Torera.  It was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play - one that HAS worked for me - Kirk Ziadie with sprinters running for less than $40K.  Well, not only did that angle apply, but Ziadie is 41% with runners off a 30+ layoff, which La Torera was and his dirt sprinters were winning at 41% as well.  But by far, the top angle was the claiming price angle where he's won at an amazing 63%.  I tripled the bet!  As they straightened for home the 6/1 front-runner opened up, but La Torera was grinding away down the middle of the track.  I could tell it was going to be close but it looked to me like the rider had the race measured and he did, getting up in the final strides.  The juicy $7.80 payoff resulted in a nearly $60 return for me and suddenly after going 1-for-5 I was in the black for the day!  

I missed in the 8th when Safety Zone, who's run consistently over the last year tossed in his worse race of the year - 11th.  In the ninth Pletcher disappointed with class dropper Raging Mane who was 6th as the 9/5 favorite.  The 10th was the featured Gulfstream Ladies Turf Sprint and it was my "BET of the DAY!"  As I'd written both times she ran earlier this meet, Stopshoppingmaria had been highly regarded as a juvenile, and was a good second in her first start against winners in the Grade 1 Frizette behind the juvenile champion My Miss Aurelia after earning a triple Beyer in her maiden win at Saratoga.  Then she was a good second in the Breeders' Cup in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.  Since then she'd been running, and running well in turf sprint stakes, but had gone winless.  So in December I thought trainer Todd Pletcher was so smart to regroup and put her in a sweet nw1x allowance spot to get her confidence back.  It's now clear what his plan was - NOT jump into stakes action right away again, but move her through her conditions, which she did by scoring in a nw2x allowance in January.  And then today was the date circled in red - figuring she'd get two wins in allowance company and then in her third off the shelf she'd peak for the GP Ladies Turf Sprint as she rejoined stakes company.  The play played out perfectly.  She tracked the pace of a quick front-runner who nearly always weakens in the stretch.  The two separated themselves from the field heading into the turn and as they straightened for the run to the wire Stopshoppingmaria exerted her class and cruised on by to win by daylight!  My prime time investment returned over $40 and I was guaranteed to win for the day!  

 

I was now 2-for-8 on the day and to get "my average" I "figured" to win the last race and finish 3-for-9.  It was a Pletcher maiden sophomore and I was confident.  I could not believe my good fortune that Ocean City was allowed to go off at 6/1!  He set the pace from the moment the gates opened and was clear in the stretch.  My third choice came running late and they dueled through the final 100 yards and I just missed, second again :(  That would have been a return of $75 and I'd have had a HUGE finish to the week.  But I'll take the two wins and the profit on the day to close the day, and effectively the month of February.  

The last day of February racing will be this Wednesday and post time for the opener moves from 12:45 to 1:05 pm.  No matter to me, I'll be there either in person or virtually!

February 23

Fountain of Youth Day

Back In The Winner's Circle!

I finished with NINE wins today - that's the good news.....the disconcerting news was that I had a single win locally - though it was with a "prime time" investment in one of the big stakes races; and I guess I can take solace that I was three photo finish 2nd's away from having a HUGE day and a big profit.......  

The day started off with a little anxiety as once I got halfway down the Gulfstream on I-95 traffic came to a stand-still.  I was about fifteen minutes - in normal driving - away from the track, and would have been there about 30 minutes early when this happened.  Because I had planned the cushion into the travel time I was able to make it for the opener.  But I literally parked the car, speed-walked into the facility, made the bet, went straight to the rail and they were loading into the gate!  Second.....wow.  But then I went on a three race tear and I thought, "uh oh, it's going to be one of THOSE days!"  - whooo hoooo!  In the second at Aqueduct Keep Bustin sat just off the leader and drove by to be clear on the wire for my first score of the day.  Ten minutes later the odds-on favorite at Tampa romped home as much the best.  I'd doubled the bet on Big Debbie, but didn't make much profit.  And then right back to Aqueduct where it was a photo finish!  I went against the favorite with Regal Strike.  He had the best speed figures, he had the class edge, and he'd won at the distance more than anyone else in the field.  The problem was he hadn't won since 2011!  YIKES!  But I offset that with the knowledge that he was first off the claim by an outfit that wins with 28% of those.  He surged to the lead at the furlong marker, but here came the favorite.  The favorite collared him at the 16th pole and looked to have the race won.  If you watch the highlight video you can tell the track announcer is certain of this.  But then in the final 100 yards Regal Strike seemed to find another gear and it was desparately close on the wire.  I was pretty certain that the head bob went my way, and when the photo came up, I was indeed the winner (on the inside)!  THREE-IN-A-ROW!  Now we're talking'!  

Over the next three races I was right there....3rd, 3rd, and 4th, with the first and last of the sequence being on track to run my Gulfstream streak to 0-for-3 on the day.  In the 3rd at the Fair Grounds it was the Gentily Stakes.  It was scheduled to go on the turf, but it was a near certainty to be moved to the main track.  Sunbean was my "main track only" choice - he was on the also-eligible list for the featured Grade 2 Risen Star, the prep for the Louisiana Derby.  But if he went here he was a most likely winner.  I can't explain why I didn't up the bet on him - in retrospect I think I had planned on the minimum because it was scheduled on the turf and simply went with that when I made the bet.  He was ultra impressive in drawing off against an overmatched group.  

Over the next hour I missed on five consecutive races, but I was delighted to run into one of my favorite teacher friends, Cindy Joseph.  She was on track with her husband and another couple and I smiled when she said to the other girl, "I told you he'd be here!"  Cindy and I go back over 20 years, back to the Western High School days.  She was considered one of the hottest female teachers then, and I think she's just as good-looking today.  If it weren't for my honey Kim, she'd be the "cougar" of Cypress Bay High!  

Finally after an hour of missing I scored in the opener at Santa Anita.  I normally automatically double the bet on a Brad Free "BEST" of the day.  But in this maiden claimer I just didn't see it.  Still, he looked interesting enough that if Free made him the "best" I'd at least go along for the ride.  WINNER!  Then another streak of so-close-but-no-cigar picks.  In the first of the graded stakes at Gulfstream I thought that Dreaming of Julia would be the favorite, and I had never been convinced she was as good as everyone said.  The second choice was a stretch-out sprinter who looked to control the pace.  But I didn't know if she'd get the distance and Dreaming of Julia was a Grade 1 winner.  My initial thoughts were accurate.  The lone speed wired the field and Dreaming of Julia was second best as the 4/5 favorite.  I was second best at Aqueduct when instead of backing the likely short-priced favorite with a double or triple bet, I went for a price.....second again.  In the first of the graded stakes at the Fair Grounds the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Handicap stayed on the turf.  I really liked Wilcox Inn, I thought he would inhale the field through the lane.  Instead he shot right to the front!  First of all, front runners rarely if ever win on the FG turf course, and second of all if you put a closer on the lead they NEVER last.  Sure enough......led into the lane and then faded to third.  At Tampa in the Super Stakes my pick faded badly to be 8th, but I was at least right in saying the favorite would NOT win.  My next win came in the second graded stakes at the Fair Grounds.  Mark Valeski had disappointed in his return to the races last time out at short odds.  Daily Racing Form "Weekend Warrior" columnist Mike Watchmaker went against him on the premise that he should have won last time, so there was no guarantee he'd move forward today.  I disagreed.  I thought the last was a case of not being fully cranked and today was the day.  I tripled the bet.  He was saving ground down the backstretch and kept thinking the jockey had better get him off the rail or he'd be trapped.  Sure enough, as they turned for home he had no where to run!  Finally at the furlong marker, and thankfully the Fair Ground stretch is gigantic, he shifted outside and drew off impressively!  

Yay me!  I thought I might go on a tear as I had as I had five races upcoming that I had a lot of confidence in.  Disappointment immediately.....right after Mark Valeski scored I doubled down on Splendid Fortune at Santa Anita.  He was the clear speed of the race with an inside post and was certain to be LONG gone.....until he broke dead last - wow, sigh....racing, you just never know.  But I bounced right back in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf Handicap here at Gulfstream.  I was so confident that I considered making Data Link my "BEST" of the day.  But then the more I looked at Violence in the Fountain of Youth, and read Todd Pletcher's comments I was going to make him the play of the day.  Still I went "Prime Time" with Data Link.  He sat a comfortable trip, although he was in and among horses throughout, which sometimes bothers thoroughbreds.  My big concern came at the top of the lane - watch the recap video above - he was SOOOOOO wide!  But he was simply the best and scored under wraps.  I collected over $40 and NOW I'm beginning to roll!  

Right back into the winner's circle at the Fair Grounds.  The Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra is the New Orleans prep for the Fair Ground Oaks.  When I looked at the field it seemed clear to me that the Pletcher filly, Unlimited Budget was clearly the one to beat.  I was surprised she was 5/2 in the program and had hopes of a price.  But she went off at 3/2, which was a fair price.  I was concerned when she seemed far out of it with a loose-on-the-lead front runner.  Reminiscent of the Davona Dale I thought.  But then I saw the fractions.....:45 and change and 1:08 and change - especially at the Fair Grounds?  No way she lasts....as heads turned for home here came the field, and swooping by with ease was Unlimited Budget who was clearly best.  She moves to the top of my Kentucky Oaks fillies :)  

Less than ten minutes later I had my "BEST" of the day at Santa Anita.  Unbridled's Note had done something last fall that is MOST unusual.  The most unique course in North America is the down-the-mountain sprint turf course at Santa Anita.  I love handicapping those races because the winner is almost always the runner who is most accomplished down that course.  You cannot overestimate the importance of experience down the hill.  Well, Unbridled's Note shipped out west to prep for the Breeders' Cup and made her first turf start down the hill in the Grade 3 Monrovia....and she won!  It was no surprise she went off as the favorite in the BC Turf Sprint, but I had other ideas with Mizdirection, who nailed her in the final strides (paying $13+ and I collected over $100!).  Today Unbridled's Note made her 2013 debut in an overnight handicap, the Joe Hernandez Handicap.  With experience down the hill, and being a graded stakes winner she would not have to be at her best to win.  But unlike those two big efforts in the fall she went right to the front.  As they came off the hill and crossed the main track she looked long gone, but then here came a price horse right to her neck.  It was a thrilling stretch duel and the CLOSEST of photo finishes.  Much like the Aqueduct race I was pretty sure that on the wire it was my nose that was in front.  They showed the slow motion many times until finally my number came up!  WHOOP WHOOP!  That's four stakes wins in a row and four out of five big, added money bets I've cashed!  

And next was the "BET of the Day" in the Fountain of Youth.  Violence was sent off at 3/5 and I thought that was fair.  The pace - just like the Davona Dale and Rachel Alexandra was wicked.  Violence was tracking in third and moved on the turn.  He collared the leader coming out of the turn and was clear into the stretch.  My first reaction was that he'd moved too soon with the stretch run still to come after tracking that swift pace.  But then I knew the finish was the "first finish line" in this 1 1/16th mile race, so the stretch was short.  On the outside came my second choice, Orb who'd won two in a row (and had been third to Violence in their sprint debut at Saratoga).  He had the momentum and collared him with a 16th to go.  Oh no, but then Violence surged......photo finish!  But I knew.....second best today.  The first of the three late photos that cost me - this one to the tune of nearly $50.  I left after that and watched the rest on replays on HRTV that evening......... 

In the Grade 2 Risen Star, my pick Palace Malice was a nice 5/1 and was in the blanket finish, but was clearly third.  The winner, incidently paid over $270 for a $2 bet!  Go figure.  In the finale at Gulfstream, a maiden 3-year-old turf event I doubled the bet on the Pletcher runner who went off at 6/1!  He was flying at the finish.....PHOTO .... second - lost out on a potential $70.  And in the last bet of the day, the feature at Santa Anita, the Grade 2 San Carlos, I had the lone speed in Comma to the Top.  But an outside pressed him through a :44 and change half going seven furlongs.  He put him away and was clear into the stretch.  But as the wire neared you could tell he was tiring.....WHERE'S THE WIRE!  Just couldn't quite last at 6/1.....ANOTHER $70 down in a photo finish.  That is nearly $200 in those three late photos......sigh.....but it was a great day of racing!

Back To Reality

Thursday - Friday February 21 - 22

Well, I guess if you go on a big run of wins it's only natural to hit a slide to bring your numbers back into the world of "normalcy."  With no racing on Wednesday, due to the President's Day Holiday Card this past Monday - and let's not forget I was 3-for-6 that day! - there was no racing Wednesday.  When the racing started Thursday I ran second in my first investment race with the 1/5 favorite.  I had only invested the minimum because I thought he'd be a short-priced favorite and while I liked his chances I thought he'd be over bet.  Indeed he was.  I did not have another bet until the 6th and there my double investment was rewarded when Rio Bobo was just two clicks off the track record as he ran away with the race, winning by nearly a 16th of a mile.....here we go!  

But that was it....and I mean that WAS IT not only for the rest of today, but for the entire card on Thursday where I failed to score in a single race.  Fact is I ran third once for the only in-the-money finish of the day.  I decided to change my "office location" for handicapping the Saturday card......check out the brief video below to see the view from my "desk" :)  Here's hoping that Fountain of Youth Day brings more winners!

President's Day - Monday February 18

ANOTHER Great Day To End A M-O-S-T AMAZING Five Day Run!

Certainly, I thought, today cannot be like the others....at some point this amazing run of winners has to even out.  But no, not today!  Who would have thought that picking 50% winners would actually DROP my winning percentage for the week!  :)  Much like Sunday, the first two races were "go figure" types of races and I was disciplined enough to steer clear of them.  But in the third Todd Pletcher was bringing back to the races Hierro.  All this guy had done was win the Grade 3 Derby Trial on Opening Night last spring at Churchill Downs, but had been winless since.  This non-winners-of-2 other than allowance seemed a cozy spot for his return.  And of course there were all the Pletcher GP Handicapper 40% Club angles to bank on.  Hierro rated in fourth, moved effortlessly to the challenge on the turn, and even though he was spun wide into the stretch he simply galloped away from his overmatched rivals to score yet another winner for me!  I had doubled the bet and took down the nearly $25 prize!  

The next two races were similar to the first two - very unpredictable, so I passed them both as well.  But in the 6th I thought Carnival Kitten could run down her maiden claiming rivals.  I doubled the bet and she went off as the luke-warm favorite at 5/2.  Never fired, 7th.  Then in the 7th I went with #8-Sunrise Ridge who had had the lead and given it up in every single race until her last when she drew off convincingly.  I thought she'd turned the corner, and she was in hand, in front turning for home.  But in her last I had gone against her with a filly named Ju Ju Eyeballs, only to be disappointed.  Of course.....Sunrise reverted to her quitting tendencies and Ju Ju ran right by her at a nice price.....sigh.....one of the few disappointing stories of the week.  In the sixth I had Daddy Likes That on the turf - no better than 8th.  Then in the 9th, one of my favorite fillies was back where I thought she belonged.  Last winter Ciao Bella had been scintilating winning two dirt mile races.  She went two turns at Monmouth and was much the best.  But Todd Pletcher tried her in a turf marathon and she nearly pulled off the graded upset that day.  Since then she'd been in four straight marathon turf stakes, and while well bet and competitive, she'd not won.  So today Pletcher brought her in off a vacation and put her back to the one-turn mile.  I doubled the bet and WOW was she impressive.  Throughout the race she was being very firmly held and she drew off like a champion.....very impressive!  I had my second winner and another $20!  

The last race of the day and the week came from Santa Anita in their feature the Grade 2 Buena Vista Handicap going a mile on the turf.  My top pick was Mizdirection.  If you've followed my adventures you know I had her two back as a $13 and change upset winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and had collected over $100.  I had her in her last, another down-the-hill graded sprint as the favorite.  But today her connections were trying to stretch her out.  Every indication I'd read said she'd have no problem with the added ground.  I like some analysts I'd read, thought she'd sit just off the pace and blow by on the turn.  But instead Mike Smith, who had ridden a Breeders' Cup champion for me yesterday at Gulfstream (Royal Delta) took Mizdirection right to the front.  When the field began to make their move spinning out of the turn, Smith - much like yesterday - shook the reins and it was all over!  

With her win I'd notched 3 winners from six selections for the day, and another profitable day.  She closed down a MOST AMAZING week as my 18th winner, out of my last 28 selections, for an astonishing 64%.....and better yet, I'd profited through that run to the tune of nearly $200!  What a G-R-E-A-T week it turned out to be!

Another GREAT Day!

Sunday February 17

With the hot streak of the last four days I was waiting for "the other shoe to drop" today....however I had two "BIG TIME" selections today and felt pretty confident that I SHOULD score today.  It went better than I could have imagined!

When I handicapped the card the other day the first three races were all toss-up races without any edge to me I felt.  But in the fourth race it was a nw2x allowance for older runners and the obvious program favorite was Bill Mott's Cigar Street.  He had debuted last winter at the Fair Grounds with an electrictifying win which earned a 99 speed figure.  Then in his first start against winners he was sent into the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby!  A respectable 4th losing by only two lengths.  He was then moved to the Mott shedrow after that March run and the Hall of Fame trainer gave him time off until two days after Christmas.  he demolished an entry allowance field that day nearly matching his career best figure.  So today he was coming into the race with bullet works for his four-year-old debut.  He went right to the front and was under a firm hold from the start.  Finally on the far turn he was allowed to open up and he drew off without any problem going a demanding nine furlongs.....didn't even break a sweat!  I had a "Prime-Time" investment and cashed for nearly $40!  

In the 5th I thought Red Hills would reverse his last decision on Evil Powder, and the crowd bet him down the same way.  Apparently when Evil Powder beat him the last time it was not a fluke as he drew off as much the best while Red Hills struggled to hold third beaten nearly half a dozen lengths.  The 6th was a 3-year-old maiden special event....you know what that means!  "Where's the Pletcher runner/"  I learned my lesson early in the meet when I'd followed the Gulfstream Handicapper which proclaimed that Pletcher was much less effective with turf routes.  I had missed a double-digit payout because of that and since then Ive followed my instincts and have at least doubled the bet on every one of his runners.  Adventurine broke slowly in his Saratoga debut, 9th of 10 runners and over 15 lengths behind.  He rallied to be within three of the winner on the wire.  So today I was sure jockey Javier Castellano would have him closer to the front and he'd prove much the best.  The crowd, in their infinite "unwisdom" allowed Adventurine to go off at 2/1.  Castellano had him rating just off the leader to the far turn.  he took command and drew off easily through the lane!  The $6.00 payoff allowed me to cash for $30!  

My next selection in the 7th scratched.  In the 8th it was a Maiden Special for sophomores on the main track going seven furlongs.  Mr. Todd Pletcher was kind enough to NOT enter anyone, allowing the training colony to have a shot at a MSW prize.  Iroquois Girl had been right up on the pace and finished second earlier in the meet going six furlongs and projected to be the favorite, and she was.  But I went with #6 Manuka Honey at 6/1 in the program.  All six of her career starts were two-turn-turf events where she'd been up on the pace.  I thought she'd sit a tracing spot and blow by them late.  It all went according to plan until the top of the stretch when Iroquois Girl opened up a daylight lead.  But Edgar Prado kept busy on Makuka Honey......I could tell it was going to be close and it was a bob of the head on the wire.....and I WON!  The crowd bet her down to 5/2, but still the $7.80 payoff yielded nearly $40, AGAIN!  I am having a very good day!  

Now it was time for the feature, the Grade 3 The Sabin.  This time last year Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic winner Royal Delta was making her 4-year-old debut and prepping for the Dubai Cup.  I thoought she was vulnerable that day, in spite of the fact I'd made her my "BEST" on Breeders' Cup Friday.  I was right as Awesome Maria walked with it as my "best" that day and Royal Delta was a best-of-the-rest 2nd.  o today, she was coming off a convincing Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic win, again as my "BEST" of the BC Friday program, and again prepping for a Dubai Cup run.  But I'd read trainer Bill Mott say that she was "bigger and stronger" this year and he thought she'd be "more ready."  I also thought that her main challenger was the newly turned 4-year-old Grace Hall, who in her last had lost to Royal Delta in the BC Ladies' Classic by nine lengths.  I had a curious thought about the #1 One Last Dance who was going to be a huge price.  I thought it odd that top rider Javier Castellano had ridden Grace Hall most of last year, but got off this multiple graded winner to ride this one who only had a non-winners of two other than allowance win on her resume.  Sure enough, it was the 20/1 One Last Dance that took the lead to Royal Delta.  But the queen moved handily to the lead on the far turn and seemed to open up effortlessly.  But as they started to spin out of the turn One Last Dance began cutting into the lead with momentum on her side......uh oh!  But Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith shook the reins and the two-time Breeders' Cup Champion was gone as my "BET of the DAY!"  She had made a triumphant return to the track as a popular favorite!  

So for the day I was an amazing four-for-five and had profited nearly $75!  That runs my four-day total to an astonishing 15-for-32 (68%) with a profit of over $150!

The hot streak continues!

Saturday February 16

The way the week started I was so discouraged....but I thought at the time that I've been here before and if I just stick with it things will turn around.  And today continued that streak.  Since getting shut out on Wednesday I've hit on eleven of sixteen selections - close to 70%!  

In the opener I dueled on the lead at 3/1 and kept waiting to pull away because the favorite had run second in three straight....of course today he went on with it and I faded to fourth.  In the third race I tripled the investment on Emollient.  It was a nw1x AOC for sophomores and she had run a strong second in the Grade 2 Demoisel in New York late in the fall.  She had a double Beyer advantage and her typical speed figure would top everything the rest of the field ran routinely.  As the race began and they hit the backstretch, jockey Joel Rosario had her saving ground on the rail and right away I could tell he was in for trouble and would get pinned on the rail if he didn't get out of that spot down the backstretch.  He sure was in trouble, but finally once heads were turned for home was able to get clear.  The Pletcher horse was trying to get away by in the final 100 yards Emoillent surged clear as the best.  Nice way to start off the winning!  

Right back in the 4th was a nine furlong maiden special for sophomores.  Duh, obviously the Pletcher horse!  Though I was a bit concerned that he did not score in his debut, but Mr. Todd is 47% with his second time starters.  As a $300K purchase for top stable WinStar, I knew he had talent.  He was green through the lane weaving all around, but he was clear on the wire and I cashed for over $20 for the second straight race!  

I was a very close second in my next investment with Finale on the turf for Pletcher and then I missed in the first of the two graded co-features when Kadaya ran evenly without a late kick in the Grade 3 The Very One.  In the 9th one of my favorite 2-year-old early Derby horses was running here at Gulfstream.  I had tabbed Capo Bastone in his maiden win at Del Mar last summer, and since then he'd been graded stakes placed going two turns....but he'd yet to win.  He was a good 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as well.  But since that start he was transferred from John Sadler's barn to Todd Pletcher's barn.  Like he needs any more top sophomores!  But one thing I've noticed over the last few years.....when an owner moves a runner into the Pletcher barn, he has them fully cranked for their first start for him; my guess is that he wants, obviously, for the new owners to think they've made a good move!  So today, even with reservations about his ability to win at the 8 1/2 furlong distance with the short run to the second finish line, I thought John Velazquez would try to sit closer to the pace.  This could negate his big closing kick, but I thought he'd run a top race.  It went exactly like I had envisioned it....he sat closer to the pace, moved strongly to the longshot leader, but then the only part I did not envision....it was a thrilling stretch duel as he finally was able to put away the long time longshot leader....be he won with my second triple investment of the day!  

The 10th was the second graded co-feature, the Grade 3 Mac Diarmida.  I had won this race with one of my favorite horses, Presious Passion (and the photo hangs on my Wall of Fame), but today there wasn't a standout.  I did not like the program favorites and went with 4/1 Amira's Prince who was making his stakes debut.  But, the crowd was not fooled either and made him the 8/5 favorite.  He blew by in the stretch and was MUCH the best....my third winner on the day!  

The 11th came off the turf and with it my pick scratched.  So for the day I was 4-for-7, hit with all three of my added investments, and netted a profit of close to $50.  It was a very good day!  Tomorrow we drive over to Englewood to spend the rest of the weekend with Kim's mom and dad....but thanks to the wonder of the Internet I will be at the races virtually!

Friday February 15

Ghosts & Undefeated Streak Highlight The Rainy Friday

Today was an unusual day in that it started raining early in the morning and really never stopped.  The weather played havoc with my selections as of my six selections four were scratched....two due to the weather and two due to the races coming off the track.  But it did not detract from an exciting day at the races and a GRAND ADVENTURE for Kim and I!  Far and away the highlight of the racing day came from "Down Under" where the undisputed Queen of Australia, Black Caviar made a triumphant return to the races in a race that was named for her......... 

Black Caviar WINS 23rd Race In A Row!

But let's start at the beginning of the day.....After my first selection scratched out of a claiming event I had doubled the bet on #6 Starship Truffles.  I thought that in spite of her having won eight of ten, including her last two here at Gulfstream, I might get a bit of a price as she moved into open allowance company.  But when the program favorite scratched, she was left as the odds-on choice in the slop....and she romped home at 4/5.  Whooo Hooo!  

I did not have another selection until the 9th of the day.  I liked Windsurfer who was a Todd Pletcher trained runner, and thus a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club play.  She was coming off a layoff, but her last three Beyer speed figures were better than every figure earned by her rivals save two.  The one was the actual program favorite, but his 1-for-14 record made me discount his chances; and the other one had earned a figure ONCE that would beat him....but every other figure on his resume was a good ten points below that.  Autheticity looked much the best on paper to me....and he was.  He pressed the pace around the first turn and down the backstretch. But on the far turn John Velazquez had had enough.  He shook the reins and Authenticity was LONG gone under a hand ride winning with devestating ease!  

The racing day was over, on "this side of the pond," as they say.  Kim came home and we had decided that it would be fun for Valentine's Day to treat ourselves to an adventure.  Kim had the idea - give her all the credit - and I'd made the reservations.  In spite of a constant soft rain we drove to downtown Ft. Lauderdale and met with a certified paranormal researcher and took a three hour walking tour of haunted sites downtown.  I didn't even know we had such sites!  The rain stopped by the time we were about twenty minutes into the adventure and we had a great time listening to stories, listening to EVP recordings and looking at his photos of spirits captured by previous people on the tour.  I would love to say we saw something, but we didn't.  Still it was ghostly good fun!  Go to the bottom of this entry to see two videos from YouTube regarding the tour.....if you dare!

We didn't get home until after midnight.....which worked out well for me.  The brilliant sprinter, Black Caviar was slated to make her return to the races today in her home country of Australia.  Now this brings a couple of things to the table.....first, Kim and I were actually in Australia last spring for nearly the entire month of March..... 

And I had watched Black Caviar's last race, a gut-wrenching win at Royal Ascot.  It had appeared that day that jockey Luke Nolan had eased up on her nearly costing her the race while in fact she had been injured and running basically on three legs, and STILL had remained unbeaten!  

That had been thought at the time to be her farewell race, but six weeks after she looked so good that her connections thought they would continue her love affair with her home fans and began training her for today's race.  In running at Flemington Racecourse today she was looking to become the first thoroughbred to win this stakes three times.  Right out of the gate, as you can see in the video, she was just SO much more talented than any of her male rivals.  She romped home in a course record time and her 23rd consecutive win in a row as my BET of the Day.  It was a thrilling way to top a GREAT day at the races!

The Stranahan House (our first stop on the Ghost Tour!)

 
Broward Teen News Story on The Ft. Lauderdale Ghost Tour
Note:  John Carr in the video was our tour guide as well
 

Shocking - 30% through the first two days!

February 13 - 14

All I will say about Wednesday is that the numbers were 0-for-6 and only hit the board one time.  So, let's move on to Thursday.  

It was indeed Valentine's Day, and it couldn't have been "sweeter" for me at the races!  The day started and it looked like it was going to be "more of the same" from Wednesday when in the opener I was off the board at 8/5.  Wow..... But then in my next selection, in the third, I had picked Princess Appeal.  What I liked about her chances was that she just missed for a $16K tag; then in her next she was jumped up two levels where she was obviously over her head.  But today she was dropping THREE levels and at a fair price of 6/1 in the program.  She went right to the front and led into the stretch.  A challenger came to her, but her ability to run vs. better aided her in drawing off through the final 16th.  And at a nice 5/1, she paid $13.00 even and I cashed in for over $30!  HORRAY!  

I ran a good 3rd and 4th in my next two picks at 6/1 and then 2/1 before it was time for my "BET of the DAY!"  No surprise that it was a Todd Pletcher runner, and she had several Gulfstream 40% Club angles in her favor.....47% second start of the meet, 45% with second time starters off a layoff; 43% with Johnny Velazquez.  She stalked the pace to the middle of the turn and then just dominated the field under a hand ride, never asked for her best.  Ultra impressive!  Didn't pay anything, but the way she ran more than justified the "BET of the Day" status I accorded her.  

In the 9th we were on the turf.  Dimples was my pick....she had run for trainer Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey two back, then was claimed away for a $15K price.  In her first start for the new connections they moved her up to $25K....but Maker was waiting at the claim box and he gladly put down the extra $10K for the Ramseys.  In her last, her first start against winners, she ran 2nd and the winner had come right back to win again.  Better yet, Dimples had been NINE clear of the show horse.  Throw that into the mix with the claim back and I thought she was an obvious pick.  She made her move at the top of the lane and drew off as the 7/5 favorite!  

In the finale I had picked Kissin Gentleman - appropriate for the holiday :)  It was a great piece of creative handicapping I thought, and I was disappointed that the crowd bet him down to 4/5.  Three back he'd dominated his maiden win at a one-turn mile - like today's distance.  Two back he was beaten FORTY lengths!  But that was by the Pletcher rising star, Graydar who exited that race to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap!  You could toss the last, a failed turf experiment.  The drop into a 2-lifetime claiming spot made him a solid win candidate.  It was a stirring stretch duel, and he was actually headed inside the 16th pole, but he would not be denied on the wire!  

So for the day I was 4-for-7, a whopping 57%!  And when you look at my week's totals so far I was 4-for-13....30.7% - shocking, as the title says :)  Topped the day off at the Panthers game where Kim surprised me with a new addition to the gift shop - a hooded sweatshirt that looks just like a game jersey!  And yes, she was treated well - got her gifts before she went to school this morning!

Less than spectacular weekend........

Friday February 8 - Sunday February 10

Overall, in a word, disappointing.  In retrospect, it would not have taken much to turn the tenor of this journal entry into "it was a great three days."  On Friday I started the day off with back-to-back second place runs.  In the first race I bet the Todd Pletcher runner, #5 Shore Runner was way, WAY out of it early in a six furlong sprint - so far out of it that his little chicklet on the graphic wasn't even on the screen!  He was FLYING late to miss by about a length...2nd. Then in my next bet I had #6 Holdin Bullets who broke on top and was clear in mid-stretch, only to be caught on the wire....2nd   WOW..... The good news from the day was that my "BEST BET" of the day in the 7th, #1 Blues and Silver wired the turf field without a lot of drama.  Horray!  

But then I ran 4th in both of the last two selections.  Saturday was one of the biggest days of the meet, it was DONN HANDICAP DAY!  

When I handicapped for the day I found so many Todd Pletcher runners, so I was certain I'd have a big day!  But as seemed to be the weekend theme, it turned out to be disappointing.  In the opener Big John B was 2nd best.  In the 5th Pletcher's Park Cit was struggling on the rail while a 50-1 front-runner turned for home four in front....but in a courageous run he was up in the final fifty yards at a healthy price..... 

Then in the 6th Tapulous was never a threat.  But in the 7th Jack Milton went off favored on the turf and collared the leader in mid-stretch, but could not get by....2nd.  I went against the two big favorites in the Grade 1 Gulfstream Turf Handicap and went with the third choice Unbridled's Command....Point of Entry and Animal Kingdom put on a real show through the lane and finished 1-2 while I close to be third.  In my "BEST" of the day, the Grade 3 Gulfstream Sprint Championship I bet Pletcher's Travelin Man who was 4-for-5 here with all three of his best speed figures here.  Made a bold move on the turn and stopped - 6th.  WOW.  In the 10th, the Grade 3 Suwannee River I passed the race.  Pletcher's horse won at 3/1 - are you serious?  In the big race, the Grade 1 Donn Handicap I was completely against the top three program choices.  To me it came down to either Grade 1 winner Bourbon Courage or the lightly raced Pletcher runner Graydar.  I made them my top two picks and went with the former because he had run well at the distance and looked to sit the perfect trip behind several who wanted the lead.  Graydar was one of those, so the pace looked to compromise him.  In addition, he was making only his fourth start - he'd missed in a dirt sprint, then scored in his next start, another dirt sprint.  In his last he looked impressive winning on the lead in a one-turn mile.  So today he faced pace pressure, went two turns for the first time, made his first stakes try - and in a Grade 1.  All he did was wire the field at 5/1 while Bourbon Courage rallied late past the program favorites to be 2nd - again.  Sigh..... As the day ended I had won with a single Pletcher runner, while four others had faltered.  And, Pletcher has won two stakes races - at 3/1 and 5/1 - and I'd missed them both.  Can you spell d-i-s-a-p-p-o-i-n-t-i-n-g :(  

Sunday I was certain would be a bounce-back day.  Kim and my Mom were headed out for the day with me and the odds would seem to be in my favor based on the results of the first four days of the week.  In a bit of foreshadowing, the very first bet was an odd-son favorite at Tampa who was my "best" there - not even close, 4th.  Then in my first bet at Gulfstream Sabouli moved on the rail in the stretch of the turf race, but was 2nd best.  Then in the third race it was my co-best at Gulfstream and Flashy Grey did not disappoint, drawing off as much the best!  HORRAY!  Here we go!  

In the very next race, the fifth at Gulfstream Dark Cove scored on the turf!  Two for three at Gulfstream and it appeared I was right in figuring the averages would be in my favor today.

But then I went on a seven-race skid, not even hitting the board.....sigh.....I thought in my last five selections I had very solid picks and would finish strongly.  And I did by scoring in back to back races, first at Tampa when Magic Charm was easily best (although there was a long steward's inquiry, for which I couldn't see any problems, and eventually they didn't change the order), and then at Santa Anita in a maiden special race down the hillside turf course.  My pick, #9 Ocean's Of Money, was the only runner who'd raced down the hill, and as I have always said - "experience down the mountain cannot be underestimated" - and he proved it again by wiring the field by daylight!  WHOOO HOOOOO!  Missed in the feature at Gulfstream when Applauding (6/1) didn't run a lick, and then in the final three selections it was more of the same.  In my co-best at Gulfstream, trainer Kirk Ziadie was winning 63% of his starters in claiming races for less than $40K.  So it was no surprise when my pick, the favorite, Mae Ruler, surged to the front and was clear at the furlong marker.  But then came one of only two horses who appeared worthy of even considering to run him down in the shadow of the wire....2nd, again.  We left and went out to dinner.  When we came home my "BEST" of the day at the Fair Grounds came in the 9th when it was taken off the turf.  Tiban looked so much better than the remaining runners.  And as he cleared off in the final furlong even track announcer John G. Dooley said, "Tiban being confidently handled by his rider..." and then in the final strides he was nailed on the wire - 2nd, AGAIN!  And in the last race of the week I had the closer, Byrama in the Wishing Well Stakes at Santa Anita down the hill.  Couldn't get there in time.  Of course not......sigh.  So I closed the week by cashing some tickets Sunday, but not anything like what I had anticipated.  Close the books and move on to the third week of the month......

 

Thursday February 7

Two - for - Six:  A "Workman-Like" Day

It wasn't anything spectacular, but it was another day of grinding out winners today.  In the opener I had the 4/5 favorite and he was well back as they hit the far turn.  Figured he would accelerate to run down the top four, all longshots......nope, never fired.  My next selection was a double investment in a bottom-level claiming event.  The field was a woeful 1-for-26 at Gulfstream, so the fact that #7-Starship Valor had a local record of 9/2-1-3, including a very emphatic score at this level and distance last time out as the 4/5 favorite made him stick out like a sore thumb.  I wasn't a fan that he'd been taken AWAY from trainer Jamie Ness, but his new trainer Michael Pino was a solid 27% first off the claim.  It was also encouraging that jockey Javier Castellano did not jump ship and was riding back today.  Starship Valor stalked the leaders early and drew off as he pleased under a confident hand ride through the lane!  

In the 6th I doubled the investment, as is my practice, on the Todd Pletcher runner.  Didn't figure to be the favorite, but you can't guess with Pletcher runners.  An even 6th at 9/2.  Missed again in the 7th when Gunman failed to run his race on the turf at 3/1.  I won the 9th, the "feature" on the day in a non-winners of 3 other-than optional allowance spot.  It was a mile on the turf and #4-Pianist was being sent out by top young trainer Chad Brown.  She had as good a turf record as anyone, but she was a perfect 3-for-3 at the one mile distance.  In retrospect I should have invested more here and less in a couple other spots.  When they turned for home she accelerated and was easily best.  

In the finale I had another Todd Pletcher price horse.  I thought Jakesam would sit just off the pace behind some longshot (s) and if he'd run like a Pletcher runner could pounce and score the upset.  Everything went according to plan, and at 7/1 he made his move into the lane.....only to be swallowed up by the top choices who were hitting their best stride.  So, for the day I was 2-for-6, a solid 33%.  I have a "Prime Time" pick tomorrow and then Saturday is one of the biggest days of the winter, Donn Handicap Day!
 

Wednesday February 6

A Day At The Track With My Mom

Today I took my Mom out to the races for the day.  My "BEST" of the day was my first investment race, the third race.  It was an interesting sprint for older runners and it featured five very salty veterans, most stakes winners, but with all the logical runners coming off a long break.  I went with Todd Pletcher's exciting Discreet Dancer.  Last December he had run on Opening Day and set a track record for 5 1/2 furlongs.  His next start was a one-turn mile and he drew off with ease.  So he became a "buzz horse" on the early Derby trail.  His third career start was against the early Kentucky Derby favorite - and future Grade 1 Belmont winner - Union Rags in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  He set the pace to the turn and then weakened when Union Rags ran one of his best career races.  That February afternoon was the last time Discreet Dancer had been to the track.  But, Pletcher is a master with runners off the layoff, and generally anything he sends out at Gulfstream.  The crowd bet him way down to 3/5 - disappointed with the other stakes runners in the field I didn't get a better price.  And as they came through the stretch it was a stirring duel...... 

Discreet Dancer Returns To Action

  

As I watched along the rail near the finish I was pretty sure he'd won, but still it was a photo finish.  My Mom had bet Discreet Dancer to win and the runner-up, Candyman E, to place.  So we both cashed!  The rest of the day I really didn't ever threaten, but as I told my Mom I was satisfied to have scored with my "BEST."  The other event that took up alot of my afternoon, and gave me great satisfaction was I met with Carlos from the ticket office and got all of our Florida Derby tickets.  I returned seven that I had originally had in Section 101, where we usually sit and put together a block of 16 in the box seats.......Here are our seats:  

Check out the view of the finish line...... 

Pretty cool, eh?  Exciting stuff, only about six weeks away!