Gulfstream 2012-13 Comes To A Close

Thursday/Friday April 4-5

A Fitting Winner In Last Bet Of The Meet

Gulfstream closed for the season - although controversy reigns as to when they will open again, with a scheduled head-to-head battle with Calder looming in July.  It wasn't the best of handicapping streaks, but I did close the meet with multiple wins under stormy skies on Friday.  After the big day on Wednesday I had but a single winner on Thursday.  That came when Midnite Silver scored in the final race on my selection sheet.  

Disappointing after such a "highlight reel" day on Wednesday, but I figured that Friday I'd bounce back with a solid day.  The weather called for storms, but it was simply overcast when I arrived for the first post on Closing Day.  I thought it was curious that the turf races were scheduled to go as planned for the first half of the day, but had been taken off for the latter stages.  How prophetic the racing secretary's office was because around 3:30 pm the skies opened up and it poured!  In what has proved to be a pretty consistent theme, in the opener my top selection was second best as the favorite while my second choice won at a price.  Some things never change :)  I got on the board for the first time in the opener at Keeneland - today was their Opening Day.  Awesome Flower was being sent out first off the claim for Michael Maker, for Ken & Sarah Ramsey with Joel Rosario on board - how familiar is this tune!  But when they hit the far turn she was nowhere to be found.  Never fear though, the Keeneland stretch is at least 62 miles long and it is the graveyard for front-runners typically.  Flying through the lane she was clear with 100 yards to go and drew off easily.  

But what was a bit disturbing came after the race...... I had doubled the bet and she had gone off at 3/5, so I was curious if I was going to get $3.20 or $3.40.  But when the prices were posted for a $2 payoff here's what I saw...... OH MY!  

That has to be wrong, how can you lose money on a $2 bet!  When I asked "my girl" at the windows she was surprised and then mentioned maybe they were posting $1 prices.  I thought it had to be a mistake but after the second race they were still being posted as $1 payoffs.  I kept thinking this has to be causing great consternation with bettors who are creatures of habit, I mean since racing began posting prices in the early 1900s it has ALWAYS been based on a $2 bet!  Finally starting in the 3rd things returned to normal.  RIght after the Keeneland score I hit my first winner of the day on track.  Ron Nicoletti had tabbed the favorite as his "BEST" of the day, but I liked Tiz Beter Run who had top rider Javier Castellano and was going out for top claiming trainer Peter Walder.  Though the horse figured, those two as his human connections towered above all the others.  Romped home on the sloppy going - WHOOO HOOOO!  

Disappointed in three straight, two of which were added-money investments.  Todd Pletcher's Doherty was the odds-on choice in the third and again started slowly, spotting the field about five lengths which cost him when he lost by about one length.  Led into the stretch at Keeneland before the closers ran right by me, third.  Then I tripled the bet on Iroquois Girl in Gulfstream's 4th.  She had started twice and run second to two next-out winners earning big speed figures which laid over the field.  When the betting opened my third choice was being hammered to 8/5 while Iroquois Girl was 4/1.  I was stunned.  Re-examined the Form and thought, no - I'm right.  At post time I was the 7/5 favorite and led turning for home.  Who ran right by me at 4/1 - that's right, my third choice who had taken all the early money.  Wow.  But I bounced back with back-to-back scores.  In Keeneland's 4th it was the first 2-year-old race of the year.  Just as Todd Pletcher 3-year-olds dominate at Gulfstream, and his juveniles run lights out at Saratoga....in the early spring no matter where they surface, but particularly at Keeneland, Wesley Ward 2-year-olds ALWAYS win.  So it was no surprise to see Sweet Emma Rose score at odds-on - and I'd doubled the bet!  :)  

 

I came right back to score over the yielding Gulfstream turf in a marathon event.  Scampering looked to be either the controlling speed, or would sit just off a soft pace scenario and had Castellano riding.  Through the first of three turns she was dueling on the lead, and then Castellano let the longshot go, who opened up by half a dozen.  But down the backside he easily reeled her in, drew clear in the lane, and comfortably held off the late run of the co-favorite.  

 

FOUR WINS from my first eight selections - I'm thinking it will be a good closing day!  But just after the race it began to rain, and then storm (made for interesting trips to and from the grandstand where the only way up is to head out in the open to the twin sets of stairs!).  And like the weather, the handicapping selections turned dark and cloudy.  I rattled off two thirds and two seconds, one most notably an odds-on favorite at Gulfstream that everyone was certain would win - only to be outrun by a Javier Castellano ridden-filly, who was my second choice at a price.....wow!  Finally, in the final live race that I bet and watched I doubled the bet on a Todd Pletcher 3-year-old, ridden by Javier Castellano.  Sweet and Discreet had been second at Belmont in her debut last summer but looked to be much the best today.  I thought as I made the bet that it would only be fitting that I'd cash my last live ticket on a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play, and so it was!  She romped home easily!  

I missed on the last couple that I'd bet online to close the meet quietly.  But for the month I'd cashed on over 30% of my selections, and when I totaled my meet totals I'd cashed on over 30%.  So I have to consider Gulfstream a handicapping success.  Check out my highlight videos on the Gulfstream home page to see just how great it was to be here this winter!

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13.html

Closing Week - A GREAT Day at the Races

Wednesday April 3

After a very disappointing week, from a handicapping standpoint, I considered giving the winter an early finish by simply closing the books with the end of March.  But then I thought to myself that I had made myself a promise to handicap every card through the end of the meet and I would do so.  But, I thought to myself, I'll be conservative about my investments.  So I started to handicap for the week I also considered heading out on Wednesday.  When I had finished handicapping the opener and found that I really liked Who's Mary's Daddy with Javier Castellano on the turf.  So I decided I would go for at least a little while.  As I went through the card I wondered if I was forcing the plays because I eventually had a pick in every race!  I was a little worried that when I got to the races I'd regret having so many plays, but told myself to enjoy Gulfstream and the great weather.  Well, my handicap was spot-on and I had a glorious day!  

In the opener Who's Mary's Daddy was the favorite and had the lead all to herself, never being threatened.  She wired the field handily.  That's a great way to start the day!  

 I then went on a three race losing streak.  The second in the sequence my runner was pounded down to 1-5.  No way was she worth that price.....I should have switched to my second choice who's trainer had a $5+ ROI with second time maidens - she won and paid over $30!  When I went to make the bet in the fifth I said to the gal that I typically bet with, "I want a WINNING ticket - push what ever button you have, but I'd like a winning ticket please."  I went against GP Handicapper Ron Nicoletti's "best" and stuck with my pick, Helluva Hunch who was the second choice.  As they turned for home the favorite, Nicoletti's pick, was alone on the lead but at the furlong pole track announcer Larry Colmus called that he'd thrown in the towel!  Helluva Hunch came flying up the rail to score by daylight!  

In the very next race I had my first Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club play in Riverboat Queen, who was being sent out by Todd Pletcher.  I doubled down on her and she tracked the pace to the far turn.  John Velazquez asked for run as they turned for home and she blew by the field!  TWO IN A ROW!  

The 7th was my co-best of the day - and it turned out to be THE best because the other one scratched out of the 8th.  I liked Capitalism At Risk in spite of the fact that five of the six runners wanted the front end, including him.  But I thought he was the speed of the speed and had the ability to sit just off the pace if the race played that way.  He broke best and was in front as they headed into the turn.  As they came out of the turn the speed horse to his inside saved ground and got about a half length in front of him, but he re-rallied and drew off late to WIN!  THREE IN A ROW!  Collected over $30 :)  WHOOO HOOO!  

With the scratch of my top pick in the 8th at Gulfstream I looked at the Aqueduct card and discovered one of my favorite older horses, Smash was the favorite.  I decided to play him.  He was the 3/2 favorite as they got into the gate.  But just as he finished loading the #4 horse broke before the bell.  This startled Smash and apparently the handler in the gate because when the gates sprung open the handler was still clutching the reins!  Smash tossed his head and the jockey nearly flew out of saddle!  We had spotted the field about ten lengths.  That was the last you saw of him on the tv screen.  I thought, "That isn't right!" and knew the #4 would be DQ'd for leaving early.  My hope was that somehow I would be declared a "non-starter".....and sure enough I was!  So I "won" by getting to cash my ticket.  Watch the video to see how bad all this was :)  In the 9th there were two Todd Pletcher horses so I went with the adage of "take the longer price of an uncoupled entry" - should have stuck with the lower price as that Pletcher runner won.  In the finale I liked Why Katherine.  She had already won two of three starts here, and both were at today's one mile distance with identical speed figures.  The only other time she raced at this distance she lost by a neck in a photo and earned a nearly identical speed figure.  Look hard to beat, so I doubled the bet and she was the easiest of winners!  

So for the day, counting the Aqueduct cashed ticket as a "win" :) I was six for ten on the day and had profited over $30.  What a WONDERFUL way to start the week!

 

Sunday March 31

Happy Easter!

A Single Winner - But It's A Longshot!

My week of handicapping woes finally came to a merciful end today when I was only able to win a single race, again.  The only good news was that it was a price play.  To illustrate just how much I've struggled this week, the opener I had the 1/5 favorite who was loose on the lead the entire trip around the track and into the final 200 yards before being caught nearing the wire.  Second.  In the third I had another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% play with a Chad Brown maiden claimer (40%) - second, again at 5/2.  In the 5th I was 4th with the 4/5 favorite.  Ironically in the two races I'd made no bet, the 2nd and the 4th, I had the winner picked but thought it was a "better idea" not to bet.  Wow, I mean really.  I missed in the 6th when my second choice scored and I was 7th.  I got my lone winner in the 8th when on the turf I picked Master Wesley to win.  Top turf rider Jose Lezcano was riding for Dale Romans and the crowd let him get away at 5/1.  Paid $13.80 so I cashed for nearly $40 :)  

But, that was it.....8th at 5/1 in the 9th and then in the featured Secret Grace Stakes I had the 4/5 favorite who was interferred with - ran third but was moved up to second when they took down the winner for bothering me.....little good it did me. :(  For the week I'd cashed on only five horses while on SEVENTEEN occassions I had the favorite (or near-to-it) at odds of less than 2/1 and missed.  Three days left of Gulfstream - I am hoping for a big finish!

Friday March 29

Struggling Still

My handicapping always balances out to 30% or better, so after two days of missing, especially at short prices I was pretty confident that today I'd win more than a couple.....nope, another off-day.  I missed with the even money favorite in the opener when second - seems to be a theme for the week!  Then at 3/2 I was a miserable 7th in the 4th.  FINALLY my second win of the day in the 6th when I picked Island Time to score in a claiming event on the turf.  He was first off the claim for trainer David Fawkes who wins 40% of the time with first-off-the-claim runners.  

But that was it for the day when I missed at 5/2 (7th in the 7th) and then second yet again in the finale, again at a short price of 3/2 with Adventurine - Todd Pletcher & Javier Castellano let me down, AGAIN.....wow.  

The most "interesting" story of the day had to do with the program for Derby Day.  With thirty people joining us and being in Houston all week I did most of the work on the program prior to the trip; then handicapped on the way home.  So my plan was to take the program to FedEx where they have printing (where I have all my racing adventures published) and give them the entire thing digitally in the morning; have them print it and I'd pick it up around 4 pm before all our friends came over for a pre-Derby party.  There I was going to give them their programs and let them pick their horses for the Owner's Competition.  So all went according to plan until the girl rang up the order and said, that will be......

 $457.00  

 And I said, seriously?  She said yes.....so I said, never mind, I'll go home and print it, then bring it back for you to bind it - that's only a couple dollars per book.  What I did not realize was how V-E-R-Y long the printing would take.  I started printing at 11 a.m. and didn't finish until 4 p.m.!  I got back just as the first of our guests arrived (luckily I'd printed the first dozen and had picked them up when I dropped off the last batch before the party).  So it all seemed "no problem to our guests.  I picked up the last of the programs at about 10 pm.  It was a LOT of work today to generate programs for everyone.

Leaving Houston

Thursday March 28

Shutout Today

Not a good day at all as I continue to struggle at Gulfstream this week.  When I made my bets for today I was nearly certain I'd have a bounce-back day as three of the four selections were Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club plays and ALL THREE of them were Todd Pletcher runners.  4th at 2/1 with Unabashed in the 3rd, 3rd at 3/5 with Hierro in the 6th, and 2nd at 2/1 with Raging Mane in the 8th.  Then just for good measure, 4th at 7/2 in the finale with Sunshine Rambler who was 1-for-32 at all other distances and 6-for-18 at today's one mile on the turf.....not today.  Wow....... 

One thing I did work on as we flew home was the Florida Derby Program and handicapping for the big day!

Florida Derby Week Begins!

Wednesday March 27

We Are In Houston!

Monday started Kim's Spring Break so we flew to Houston to visit our oldest son, his wife, and our first grandchild - Cameron.  He is JUST ADORABLE!  We flew out on Monday afternoon and arrived late Monday evening.  Tuesday morning I went to football practice with Jeff - he is an assistant coach at Houston Baptist University where they are starting football for the first time in the history of the school.  

I cannot say enough about how great the coaching staff is - not only as coaches, but as people, the way they talk about my son, and how open & friendly they were to me.  It enjoyed every minute of practice all three days we were there, even if I did have to be up at 4:00 am to be on the field before 6:30 am!  AND it was in the 30's!  After practice the first day I headed back to Jeff & Antoinette's home to see Cameron for the first time.  I know this is my racing journal, but a couple of pics...... First, me explaining to Cameron how to read the Racing Form:  

Well, ok, so I'm really showing him animals on an app that allows the sounds of the animals :)  Here's the best shot of our little man - taking when we were walking around downtown Sugarland:  

And finally a pic of the happy grandparents with "the boy" and one of our grandson with his parents: 

 

While we were in Houston I played the Wednesday and Thursday card online in the morning and watched the results at night in the hotel.  The racing was disappointing, especially compared to the visit.  I ran 4th at 3/5 in the 2nd when the always lethal combination of trainer Michael Maker / owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey / jockey Joel Rosario could not get Christmas Rush to the wire first.  Even worse in the 4th when in a four-horse field my pick, My Big Angel was a miniscule 1/5 and could not hold on.....second.  Sigh...In the feature race of the day, a five-furlong turf sprint, Todd Pletcher's 3-time-winner at the meet, including the Gulfstream Park Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes last out, could not close the deal....second at 4/5.  Missed again at short odds on the turf with Rustler Hustler at 7/5 in the 7th.  FINALLY a winner in the 9th when Big John B - a Todd Pletcher runner was able to score - again at short odds, 1-2....but I was happy just to cash a ticket!  

Missed in the finale at 5/2 when third with another Michael Maker/Ramsey/Rosario runner.  Hoping for better tomorrow!

Disappointing Weekend

Friday March 22 / Saturday March 23 / Sunday March 24

After two BIG days of winning 42% of my selections the pendulum of winners dramatically swung back the other way.  Friday was just THE WORST.....not that my selections were "off" so much, but finding the winner's circle turned out to be impossible.......and what was the most frustrating was that six of the seven were Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club selections, even more discouraging FIVE of the six were Todd Pletcher-trained.  What are the odds that a near 40% trainer would miss on five runners on the same day?  Really, REALLY frustrating.  I tried to accept the outcome of the day by consoling myself that I was not the only one or even in the minority in picking the horses (two lost at 4/5, four lost at 3/1, and the other at 4/1), and by the fact that I'd won 12-of-28 over the past two days.....so over the three day span I was still 12-for-35, which is over 33%.  

Saturday, with our daughter Julie visiting she and Kim went to the beach for several hours, so I went to the races for a few races.  Because the meet is winding down I cashed in my points for my Gulfstream Advantage Card and got enough money to buy myself a new Gulfstream polo shirt.

I was going to see three races live before making bets for the rest of the day, and one of the races was my "best" of the day.  My first pick was in the second race where I really thought the #4 horse was the most likely winner, but there was a Todd Pletcher runner who'd be a price and the trainer of the #4, who was certain to be the favorite was 0-for-20 on the meet.  I was delighted that Pletcher's horse was 8/1 at post time.  I considered an exacta saver but knew that nearly never works for me.  Of course.....the 0-for trainer came through at 4/5 and Pletcher's horse, my pick was second --> the exacta paid a huge $45.  I was thinking of how just a $5 exacta would have netted over $100, but no, not for me.  Sigh..... in the next race I was a late running second, again.  And then came my "BEST" of the day.  Carried Interest had been the heavy favorite in her last when coming off a layoff and broken behind the field.  That day she dueled on the lead and was caught late.  Today the connections switched to the meet's leading rider Javier Castellano and she had a sharp workout.  Dueled with a longshot to the top of the stretch, but instead of drawing clear it was a stretch duel and she gave way in the final strides at 1-9 odds.  Wow, how bad is it when I can't win with a 1-9 favorite?  Still, I was encouraged about my selections for the remainder of the day.  I had two picks at Santa Anita and one at Aqueduct.  The New York horse was one of my old favorites, Writingonthewall, and he delivered at 4/5.  Both California horses lost......In my first Gulfstream pick after I'd left Street Secret rallied from the back of the pack in an exciting turf race to score at better than 5/2 with a triple bet ..... got back nearly $60 and I thought I was on my way.  But the best I could do out of four race was two thirds, both at short odds.

Finally on Sunday I still thought I had good selections and my "BEST" of the day was the return of Lady of Shamrock on the Santa Anita turf in the Grade 2 Santa Ana Stakes.  Most of my picks at Gulfstream I had top rider Javier Castellano, so I was certain I would have multiple winners on the day!  In the first two races I had the 9/5 and 3/5 favorites - no, second in both.  Sigh...... The third race I had a price play at 10/1 in the program.  Joanie's Image went off at a much lower price at 7/2 and WON!  HORRAY!  I got back nearly $15 and I thought, again, here we go!  The next was my best of the day at Gulfstream.  Brandys Secret was the lone speed on the turf and had Javier Castellano to ration her speed.  Right to the front and the opening quarter for the 8 1/2 furlongs was a bit quick at :22.4.  I knew Castellano would slow her down, she wasn't really pressured....but the half was in a sizzling :45 and change.  Now she HAD to be given a break - nope, he continued to let her run and she stopped the teletimer in an absurd 1:08 and change - even Grade 1 stakes horses who were front runners would cave under those fractions.  Sure enough, weakened in the final 16th and was third.  Really?  Castellano had failed to time the late runs in both the opening races and now couldn't win on the front end.  I am NOT having a good day.  In the next race I was second with a Todd Pletcher horse at 2/1.  Then in the 9th it was a maiden race for sophomore fillies and I had a $775K Bill Mott horse.  Profitezia was sent off at a nice 4/1 and was loose on the lead going 8 1/2 furlongs.  The pressers came to her on the turf but opened up and was four clear heading for home and the alternate finish line through the short stretch run.  But a sixteenth out you could see that she simply stopped running.  Inhaled by a closer and I was second again.  WOW.  I won the finale when Wicked Tune was simply the fastest front runner in a turf sprint and ran away from the field.  Like the last race she started getting tired, but - thankfully - had enough to hold on.  Got back nearly $15.  And in the biggest disappointment of the weekend Lady of Shamrock closed belatedly to be SECOND, again.  She didn't have that devastating turn of foot today like I'd come to expect.  For the day I ended up a 2-for-8.  And after such a great start to the week I finished with 16 wins from 53 selections - still 30% right on the nose, but such a disappointing way to end the week :(

BUT....it is now finally Florida Derby Week!  And we are on our way to see our grandson Cameron in Houston on Monday!

 

Thursday March 21:  A Full Day At The Races

FORTY-TWO PERCENT WINS!

Another fabulous day of handicapping!  I enjoyed being out at Gulfstream today so much, the weather was great....I cashed a lot of tickets.....interesting stories.....hit on all my "best" bets of the day.  What could be better?  This is what I'd envisioned my retirement would be like!  But, at the end of the day I did not have a profit.  How is that possible when I'm winning over 40% of the time with my prime selections.  In a word a photo loss and a dead heat cost me the profit on the day - but as I've often said, I can't control how the crowd bets.  If I had gotten the morning line odds on the horses I picked, even the short odds, I would have walked away with more money than I invested.  But they overbet the favorites and I did NOT find any price plays today.  Still, a great day for sure.  

I was in the winner's circle right away with the opener in New York.  Veturia looked to be the lone speed and LONG GONE as the short-priced favorite in Aqueduct's opener.  In addition she had the meet's top rider.  My only mild concern was she was first off the claim.  And though this new barn wins at a 20% clip with new acquisitions, I was still leery at short odds.  Right the front and never in doubt :)  I was a late-running second at Laurel - hardly ever play that track, just don't seem to have a handle on it on a consistent basis.  Then I KNEW when I made Navy Guard my pick in the second at Aqueduct she was not the winner.  But everything pointed her out.  I was very intrigued when Mike Beer, in the DRF analysis for the race pointed out a Kiaran McLaughlin statistic on second time stretch-out maidens.  Sure enough that horse wired the field at nearly 7/1.....right there in black and white but I had a better idea - third.  I hit my first winner of the winter at Laurel in just my second bet there when New Yawker won the third.  I had to smile to myself because the reason I'd doubled the bet on this horse was because there seemed to be a lot of speed in the race and his best efforts came from finishing strongly.  Throw in the fact the barn was 44% first off the claim, which he was, and the rider-trainer combination had been winning at a 38% clip.  So the gates open and the #4 horse, who was the 4/5 favorite is gunned to the front, and inside of him MY HORSE is gunned to the lead!  Seriously?  My first thought was that my pick was the first half of an entry and maybe the other half would save me by closing down the race.  But after dueling with the favorite through the turn New Yawker opened up and drew off by daylight!  WOW - who saw that coming?  Apparently I did, because I cashed for nearly $30 :)  I was no where to be found at Aqueduct, but then scored again by being a pretty smart cookie (if I do say so myself).  

It was the 2nd at the Fair Grounds and we were on the turf.  I was against the favorite with #6 Splendiferous.  Normally I am not a fan of low level and especially conditioned claiming horses coming right back to win.  But when Splendiferous won her last she had posted a new lifetime best speed figure.  What was the difference?  Leading rider (and the nation's leading rider) Rosie Napravnik had gotten on board!  She was back on today and I thought she had a good chance to duplicate the effort.  Rosie had her behind horses on the rail and as they entered the long Fair Grounds Stretch she went to move out between horses, but then the ouside presser closed the gap!  She shifted in towards the rail where there was room, but the front-runner drifted over!  OH NO!  She headed outside, but then the leader drifted out leaving the rail open.  Right away Roise accelerated Spendiferous through the gap....surged to the front and was up in time!  THAT my friends is why she is so good.  She makes the move outside she loses ground and doesn't get up in time.  My THIRD winner of the day!  And at a nice $7.00 payoff, so I cashed for nearly $20!  The fourth at Gulfstream was a very, VERY interesting adventure - and a first time story for me at the races.  We were on the turf and the horses were loading into the gate when the #9 horse tossed her rider and ran off.  The outrider tried to contain her but he was pulled off his horse and the two of them crashed through the rail!  Finally they caught the runaway horse, after having to pull the gate off the course.  But now there was a delay while the rail was fixed.  Then there was further delay as the horse ambulance came to take the injured outrider's pony to the barn area.  All set - no, we had to wait for the horse ambulance to come back.  Finally after 20 minutes and change it was back, the gate was in place and we began loading.......but then the #3 tossed her rider and was loose!  Seriously?  :)  Another delay until finally, nearly 30 minutes past post time we had the race.  And after all that I was second with Flash Force - another Christophe Clement first time starter who failed to deliver - to my second choice with Rosario on board.  Wow.  Still, makes for an interesting story :)  I was back in the winner's circle at Aqueduct in the 6th, my next pick.  I doubled the bet on #4-Dynamic Host who was a Grade 3 winner.  But here was the rub.  That was on the west coast, on the turf.  Today she was first off the claim, shipped to the Aqueduct inner dirt course in New York.  Still, her class SHOULD tell.  But as they turned for home she seemed to be spinning her wheels in fourth with a furlong to go.  But in the final 16th she found another gear and surged.....PHOTO FINISH!  As I looked at the replay in slow motion I thought I had won, but did not have confidence because of the camera angle....... 

I did!  I felt fortunate to get 6/5 and so I collected over $20.  I missed with a 20/1 longshot at Laurel but appeared to be right back on track at the Fair Grounds with the favorite Moshaagib on the turf.  Flying late, in just the same kind of finish.  But this time I was fairly confident I'd won.  Then the slow motion came up and I wasn't so sure......no, second :(  

At this point I'd only had the one bet on track - the adventurous 4th race - but now it was my second play.  I had tabbed Capitalism At Risk to win on the front end.  He'd beaten my top pick in his last start and had bothered my horse the length of the stretch AND made a sharp right hand turn into him right at the wire.....I thought he should have been DQ'd.  But he wasn't.  Today he'd changed barns, but top rider Javier Castellano was on board AND the race was only 5 1/2 furlongs - a big advantage for him as the lone speed.  I was surprised he was bet down to favoritism, but the crowd was right as he was MUCH the best!  

I needed now to go on a roll because all of my next four picks were "best" bets.  The first in the sequence came at Laurel.  Manito was bound to be the favorite as it was obvious he was THE LONE speed of the race.  I figured he'd be 3/5 or there abouts.....1-9 when the betting opened.  Wow.  Floated up to 2/5 and I thought that was fair, but at post time he was 1/5.  Right to the front setting a measured pace.  Two pressers came to him as they turned for home, but then his jockey said "GO" and that was that.  Wish I'd have collected more, but what are you going to do?  I'll tell you, you celebrate a "Best Bet" WIN!  WHOOO HOOOO!

They had no sooner had Manito crossed the line than I hustled up to my box seats for the Derby to watch my "Best" at Gulfstream - It's Saturday Night.  It was a turf sprint and she was sent out by Clement, ridden by Rosario.  But what I really liked was the only time she'd been in a turf sprint (her only turf try actually) she has stalked a very hot pace and drew off with authority.  With the 2-post I figured she was quick enough to take them gate to wire if Rosario read the break that way, or press the pace.  The gates opened and she rocketed out to the front.  She was pressed and when they turned for home it was clear this wasn't going to be an easy win, but Rosario asked her for another gear and she drew clear through the final 16th......ANOTHER "Best" winner!  WHOOO HOOO - squared!  

As they were crossing the finish line at Gulfstream they were hitting the far turn at Santa Anita in their opener where I liked #3-Bikini Bottom.  Ok, on name alone you know I'm all into that ;)  But she appeared to be an obvious pick off a loss in her latest maiden sprint in a photo finish while four plus clear of the show horse AND a bullet work since. Jockey Kevin Krigger had her sitting off the longshot leader as they spun out of the turn and then she accelerated to the front and drew clear late as the 1/2 favorite.......FOUR in a row and three "bests" in a row!  WOW!  What a great day!  

But the next was THE BET of the DAY!  The Aqueduct meet was supposed to move off the inner track to the outer track last week.  And while that might not seem of significance, it is for today's race, the Compelling Word Stakes.  IF as scheduled on the outer track this would be a one-turn mile, but because we were still on the inner track it was a two-turn mile.  The favorite was going to be Saginaw who had rattled off ten wins from fourteen starts - ALL AROUND ONE TURN.  He is great at the one mile distance of the race, but could he handle two turns?  I thought he could and I was hoping he'd be a fair price, better than even money.  And he was at 6/5.  He broke on top and set a measured, and comfortable lead.  As they turned for home he opened up two lengths, then three, then four at the furlong marker.  I was smiling at myself at making him the "BET OF THE DAY."  And then you could see that the closers were in high gear, gaining ground and had all the momentum.  I quickly calculated the wire and the way they were finishing and I thought.....uh oh, this will be close.  and it was OH - SO - CLOSE!  PHOTO FINISH!  And I mean a PHOTO FINISH!  I was not sure at all because at Aqueduct the rail is striped and then there is a gap, so (as they said on HRTV) - where is the wire...at the beginning of the gap, the middle, the end?  They showed the slow motion over and over and I couldn't tell - some angles I thought I'd won, others I thought I'd lost, still others I thought maybe a dead heat.  

Finally, yes, a DEAD HEAT!  I would have MUCH preferred the $40+ winning ticket, but - especially because it was my "BET of the DAY" I was happy to cash the ticket.....my FIFTH win in a row and FOURTH "best" bet in a row!  

That proved to be the last win of the day as I missed on the final six picks - ironically, when I cashed on Saginaw I actually thought the odds were that I'd won more than my fair share for the day, but you never know.  So on the day I had a fabulous day of handicapping by nailing NINE wins from just 21 selections - an identical 42.8% to match Wednesday's card.  But, like yesterday still found a way to not make a profit.  The Fair Grounds photo and the Saginaw dead heat had cost me over $60 and that would have made me a $50 winner on the day.  But, like yesterday, it was a great day of racing and my handicapping was spot on!

Wednesday March 20

THREE WINS To Start The Week

It was a good day for handicapping statistics for sure.  The only thing that did not work out today was that all three wins were with the minimum investment and three of the four losses were with runners where I'd doubled the bet.  Sigh......As I often say, the handicapping of the winners is only one-half the battle. The other half, the difference between winning and losing money, is the money management.  

So the day started with a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play when Parasol was sent out by Jamie Ness.  He wins 47% with his runners when entered for a claiming tag below $40K and he wins a big 57% first off the claim.  Both applied here - and I got a juicy 3/1 price as they left the gate.....never in it, as he ran 6th.  My pick in the third scratched so I moved to the fourth.  The horse, Perfect Agility, looked like an obvious pick and one that I would have normally invested at least double if not triple on....Coming out of maiden special company and dropping in for a first time tag - that alone is nearly always an automatic double bet - and the last was a KEY race where the winner had come right back to win.  Why wasn't he?  The rider was Patrick Husbands....now this guy, if we were playing Woodbine, is "THE MAN" to have north of the border, but this winter at Gulfstream, 6-for-70....YIKES!  So I did bet the horse, but only the minimum.  Husbands sat a good trip saving all the ground, swung out as they turned for home and surged to the wire to score as the 3/5 favorite.  Collected a whopping $8 for my bet :)  Better than throwing the ticket away as they say.  

I came right back to win my second race of the day in the 6th where I liked Midnight Notes on the turf.  I can't really determine why I felt inclined to only go in for the minimum.  His three turf races had all earned identical numbers (70-70-71) and the last two had been his first two off the shelf - so the paired figures and third start off a layoff all pointed to a move forward today.  Throw in Joel Rosario and moving from an outside draw to a cozy inside post and you got yourself a winner.  I think I was a bit leery of the outside runner, my second choice Arion Silver.  This guy had wired his last, albeit a maiden claimer on the turf, but had done so at 14-1 (and I had it!) with pace fractions that put him loose on the lead today.  I had the race pegged exactly......Arion Silver led them into the lane, looked loose, but as is often the case, winning right back against winners is a difficult thing and Midnight Notes ran him down to score at a nice 3/1.  I cashed for $20!  

In the 7th I thought R Skinny's Chick was a legitimate longshot with Rosario on board.  Went off at 9/1 and was a non-threatening 5th.  Missed again when Pepe was a Gulfstream 40% Club play.  Jason Servis wins with 55% of his first off the Gulfstream claim and 47% with Joe Rocco riding.  Again a nice price, 7/2, but again a disappointment - 6th on a double investment.  In the 9th I had put Isutalkintome on top.  He was dropping to his lowest level yet and got the leading rider of the meet, Javier Castellano.  His speed figures against better stood out here.  But, as the HRTV analysts pointed out, there wasn't a "legitimate favorite" in here.  And if I were playing for price I too would have avoided the bet.  But, that's why I do NOT play for price.  For me, as I often say, I enjoy handicapping and being right.  If I am fortunate to win money as well, that's just all the better!  I liked the chances of Isutalkintome and he surged in midstretch to win going away!  

I missed in the 10th with yet another Gulfstream 40% Club play when Christophe Clement AGAIN failed to produce a first-time starter winner.  Wow, the book has been SO OFF on that angle :(  So for the day I ended up 3-for-7, which is a nice 42.8% winners....but managed to lose a few dollars.  Interesting!

Weekend Review

March 16 - 17

A FUN St. Patrick's Day At The Races

It was not the best weekend of handicapping to be sure.  Kim and I had made plans to go out to Gulfstream together on Sunday, St. Patrick's Day so I handicapped just Gulfstream Park and had two other selections in graded stakes at Aqueduct and Oaklawn.  I won the very first race on my selection sheet when Cottontail came home a winner at the Gulfstream.  But then that turned out to be it as I ran SECOND in four of the other seven races and third in one other one.  Not a good day with results, but my horses were competitive at least!  I spent a good deal of time handicapping for Sunday, but tried to be very selective with my picks outside of Gulfstream as I didn't want to spend my day bouncing from one race track to another in simulcast land while Kim sat all alone in the grandstand.  So as it turned out I had nine picks in eleven races at Gulfstream and then twelve picks at the other four tracks.  Because I knew Kim wouldn't want to spend the day at the races I suggested we go out for the opener, at 1 pm.  I had picks in the first five races then was passing on races six and seven, so we could have a mid-day lunch-dinner at 3 pm and then come home and I could watch the rest of the races on HRTV via the DVR.  She liked this plan because it meant we were only going to be "at the races" for two hours.  

In the opener I liked Bustle who was going to be a price and had encountered a lot of trouble in his last against several of these.  The only thing I did not factor in was that Joel Rosario took over on one of the other horses.  He put that one on the lead and no one challenged him.  I was a clear second at 5/1 and he won the race at better that 4/1 leading to a $50 exacta, but of course I only played to win and ran second :(  My "other track" races were spaced nicely in that in between the first five races at Gulfstream I had one bet at another race so I wasn't bored sitting there for a long time between races, and Kim was never left alone for long.  I ran second, again at Aqueduct after leading from gate to final fifty yards.  Sigh.... then at Gulfstream I was a dismal last of nine; inside for an added money bet at Tampa on a Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno runner - they are winning at a 40% clip together there!  Awesome Mich went off at even money, no surprise, but was a tiring fifth - BIG surprise!  WOW.  In the third at Gulfstream I had the the 8/5 favorite and as they got in the gate for the turf sprint I said to Kim, I think I have a good chance here, but if the "Banzai" horse wires the field I will be so mad.  "Why?" she asked.  Because he's 20/1 and he's my third pick AND is listed as the "Upset of the Day" in the program.  Yes, you guessed it - in fact you may have guessed both parts of it.......I ran second AGAIN, and the winner was, yes, the "Banzai" runner.  As I headed downstairs to watch the Aqueduct race the announcement came that there was a Steward's Inquiry regarding the top two finishers.  I watched the replay, which they showed over and over and over and over again - a pretty good sign of a DQ that was coming.  The Banzi runner shifted out about 10 lengths as they turned for home as my pick, Bajan Rhythm was making his move.  While he didn't have to check sharply, he did have to briefly take up and change course to run inside.....then Banzai dove back inside and I had to weave back outside.  Either of the two incidents would not have been enough I thought, but making me check and alter course twice.....as one guy watching the replay in back of me said, "you can't ride like that!"  I thought for sure I was going to have my first winner of the day........"Ladies and Gentlemen, the stewards cannot find sufficient evidence to make a change, the result stands official."  Wow......again!  

At Aqueduct my horse was a first-time-starter and typically they don't like to be pinned on the rail.  Broke from the rail and could never get off the rail.....5th.  Then FINALLY a winner!  In the 4th at Gulfstream my selection was Disposable Pleasure.  She'd broken her maiden at first asking and then seen nothing but graded stakes.  She had not won, but had run competitively.  Today trainer Todd Pletcher dropped her into allowance company and she completely outclassed her rivals on paper.  And on the track!  WHOOO HOOOO!  My triple investment yielded over $30!  Now we're talking!  

I knew that my next pick was a make-or-break bet.  There was an obvious short-priced favorite who SHOULD wire the field.  But my pick, The Cat's Mine, was a new acquisition for a small barn who had sent out two runners last week who were making their first start for this new outfit....and they both won at 57/1 and 13/1!  UH OH!  I tripled the bet and got 6/1 at post time.  Broke slowly and wasn't even in the screen until the 2/5 favorite was galloping away freely inside the 16th pole.....5th.  Sigh..... The fifth was our final race to watch live before heading over the the Yardhouse restaurant which overlooks the paddock at Gulfstream for our meal.  I like Bill Mott's Geisha Gal on the turf.  She'd fired bullet works for today's return to the races and if she ran her race she looked like a pretty solid pick.  She exploded at the top of the lane and drew off easily.  My double investment got back nearly $20 and again I was in-and-around breaking even as we headed out to eat and then home.  

We had a really good meal, it's always good there, and then headed home.  Kim took a nap so I watched the replays.  Disappointing to say the least at the other tracks.  Tampa, the Fair Grounds, and then the early double from Santa Anita my pick went off as the favorite because they were the most likely winner.  4th, 4th, then 2nd in the SA opener and finally I was a disappointing 3rd at even money in the second at Santa Anita with a horse who was a standout at even money.  Well, that's why it's horseracing!  I followed an old adage at the races for my next win, which was at Aqueduct.  This happens all the time, especially in the summer at Calder where so often the same horses run against each other over and over again.  The angle is to find the horse who has not run with this crowd before.  Of the eight sprinters lined up at Aqueduct in their 8th race seven of them had either lost to the favorite (some more than once) or had lost to a horse (or two) who had lost to the favorite.  But one of the fillies, Sweet Sway had not seen any of them.  Unfortunately the crowd saw the same thing and bet her down to 6/5.  She proved best - though the unbeaten filly who'd had her way with the others was closing fast on the rail to be 2nd best......beating all the others, again!  

I lost with a Todd Pletcher maiden 3-year-old and then with three price horses.  The most disappointing loss came in the Gulfstream feature, the Grade 2 Inside Information.  The favorite, and my "best" of the day was Golden Mystery.  The most disappointing thing was NOT that she was a dismal fifth, but that I bet her.  I had told Kim that in both of her first two starts here - the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Sprint and the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie - I had been all against her; thought she was hugely overrated.  But she won both of them motored down, under wraps and by open daylight.  Her trainer, Marty Wolfson, was quoted that she'd been training great and today's seven furlongs was her best distance AND that they were pointing to the Grade 1 Humana Distaff on Derby Day at Churchill Downs at this distance after today's race.  I should have stuck with my initial opinion and looked for an upsetter.  The winner was my third choice and went off at 6/1.  All I could do was shake my head.  But I salvaged a nice portion of my late bets by winning both of the last two selections.  I tripled the bet on another Pletcher turf-running 3-year-old maiden.  More Hundred Acres looked much the best on paper.  But into the far turn he was a distant fifth and looked out of it.  But then as they turned for home it was like jockey Johnny Velazquez shifted into overdrive and within a sixteenth of a mile she had inhaled the leaders and was long gone.  Impressive late kick!  I will cash for for close to $40 when I head back out to Gulfstream with my winning tickets.  

And in my final pick it was Brad Free's "Best" at Santa Anita.  The HRTV analysts debated back and forth about Footbridge.  The one was a big-time doubter.  The other said that Footbridge would become one of the stars of the racing world by the end of the year.  The result was a little of both.  On the far turn he surged apparently in hand and looked like he would run by the field.  But once he got clear of the leaders he seemed to stall and ran evenly to the wire, but held on courageously to win.  

So for the day I cashed on five races, but it was far below my 30% average.  I will probably head out once or twice during the week, but there are not any big stakes races this upcoming weekend and our daughter Julie will be visiting, so I'll take the weekend off.  But it's less than two weeks until the Florida Derby.....very excited!

ANOTHER Todd Pletcher 3-year-old Star!

Friday March 15

I was only able to pick two winners on Friday's card, but my "BEST" of the Day turned out to truly be the "BEST" of the day.  I didn't even hit the board in my first four selections, and really was never even in the race despite being one of the betting choices in all four.  But I finally got into the winner's circle in the 7th when Todd Pletcher's Zaikov ran away with the Maiden Special test for sophomores.  Two story lines make for interesting telling with this one.....the first is my continued frustration with the linemaker for the Daily Racing Form.  When I handicap more than a day in advance of the races using the past performances online, the odds do not appear with the runners.  But the DRF provides what are termed "Graded Entries" which is like a program.  Two years ago when I handicapped every day at Saratoga I began to notice just how far off these odds were.  The first thing I found odd was that in every race that had "Also Eligible" horses they are ALWAYS listed as the favorites.  And the second thing I noticed is that how often the obvious contenders are listed at double-digit odds.  The most obvious that summer, and now at Gulfstream is with Todd Pletcher 2-year-olds at Saratoga and 3-year-olds here at Gulfstream.  No matter if you are setting the line on what you think the crowd will bet or on who you think will win....either way it's obvious Pletcher horses, especially first-timers, are going to be well bet with an excellent chance to win.  And here's the morning line for Zaikov..... 

 Well, like most Pletcher runners he was ready to roll.  And he was ULTRA-impressive, another star in the making.  And he was my "BEST of the Day!"  Note the closing odds, duh.  

I missed in my next when third with another Todd Pletcher runner, but this one did NOT deserve to be a favorite, Unitarian had already failed to produce twice on the turf here, so one more chance.....nope.  But then I scored again in the final race when Dance Wild was MUCH the best.  I selected her because she was the only runner with any kind of chance to believe she could win.  You could obviously toss the first two on the turf.  The three dirt tries were two good thirds and a close-up fourth.  And in the last she went two turns as the 8/5 favorite, leading through six furlongs before tiring.  But she held third and was SIX clear of the fourth place.  Today she went right to the front and just cantered by daylight.  I couldn't believe I did not have more money on her......but a win's a win!  I'll play the races online Saturday, it's not a very good card, and then Sunday Kim and I will enjoy St. Patrick's Day at the races.