A Three-Bagger On Thursday!

March 14

The day turned profitable when I made two investment decisions that resulted in BIG WINS!  Whooo Hoooo!  After the nightmarish trip home on Wednesday where the normally 35-40 minute drive turned into an hour and 45 minutes I had considered not driving back down to Gulfstream.  But the weather was too tempting and I knew I had four investments to start the day and then I'd be on the road much earlier, so off I went.  I actually had a jacket on when I left (the temp was 69), but when I arrived it was sunny and warm (75 degrees) so I tossed the jacket back in the car!  In the opener I liked Miss Tapit who promised to NOT be the favorite.  Much like yesterday's first bet I liked Why Katherine but could not get past the trainer's 1-for-24 mark.  Drew off as much the best at 5/2 while I was a distant third.  In between races I was looking online at racing news and decided to check who Dave Liftin liked at Aqueduct on the day.  The first thing that caught my eye was that a multiple stakes winner, Caixa Electronica was the favorite in the third.  What's he doing running on a Thursday I wondered.  So then I read that Liftin said he'd be much the best in here if he was ready, but the "word" was he was battling a quarter crack.  So I went to the entries online to see the post time and then I saw what to me was the key.....slated to ride Caixa Electronica was Gulfstream's leading rider, Javier Castellano - for top trainer Todd Pletcher.  I paused and considered.....would Javier Castellano fly to New York to ride this veteran in an overnight stakes if it was just a tune-up?  I don't think he's been sent out for a warm-up run....he's well meant today!  I added him to my investment list and walked to the window to bet the second at Gulfstream and the Uncle Mo Stakes at Aqueduct.  I looked at the board, and again like yesterday, there was my Michael Maker trained-Ramsey owned-Joel Rosario ridden horse being pounded on the board.  Chango Verdi was my top selection in the second, and he had NOT won last time first off the claim for the Maker-Ramsey team, but it was noteworthy to me that Rosario was NOT on board that day, but WAS today.  With the heavy betting action I doubled my investment, and made Caixa Electronica a "Prime Time" bet.  I headed out to the rail and was smiling the length of the stretch as Chango Verdi won under wraps!  HORRAY!  

 I headed into the paddock and watched the Uncle Mo Stakes from New York as Caixa Electronica left the gate as the odds-on favorite.  He broke a couple steps slowly, but Castellano had him up on the pace by the end of the opening quarter and as they hit the turn he had forged to the lead.  He turned for home narrowly in front and now it was either "go time" and he'd draw off exhibiting his class edge, or he would be in trouble making his first start of the year......no problem, L - O - N - G gone as much the best!  HORRAY squared!  Two big wins in a row!  

In the third I liked On The Key who was coming off a layoff for trainer Bob Hess - a 26% win angle, and again Rosario was riding.  A good price at 5/1, but only second best.  In the 4th it was the prototype Gulfstream race - Maiden Special for 3-year-olds.  Yes, I'm looking for the Todd Pletcher runner.....uh oh - not only is the #1 Ten Items Or Less from Pletcher's stable, but also #3 Western High was from the Pletcher shedrow!  And they are NOT a coupled entry!  Both runners had the Pletcher Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club angles of second start of the meet (47% wins), but the rail runner also had a class drop going from straight maidens to state-bred maidens (47%).  He'd shown sharp early speed in a turf sprint and now moved to the main track.....he looked like the speed to steal it.  But for me the turning point angle was NOT that I had taught at Western High for most of my career :) but that jockey John Velazquez (43% win angle) had ridden BOTH colts last time out and today was on Western High.  As I wrote in my analysis, "I hope Johnny knows what he's doing!"  Right from the gate Ten Items Or Less gunned to the front, but Western High was tracking him about a length and a half off the lead.  But when they hit the turn, Ten Items had opened up by five lengths and left Western High in the dust!  Figures I thought as they turned for home.  But then I could see that the field was closing the gap.....track announcer Larry Colmus called out that "Ten Items Or Less was shortening stride....." and at the furlong marker Western High collared him and then edged clear in the final 200 yards!  Best of all, somehow the crowd had allowed this Pletcher-Velazquez maiden go off at a remarkable 2/1.  I had doubled the bet and collected $30!  I am guaranteed to be a winner on the day!  

I knew better when I made my last two selections, but I thought the trainer angle trumped my reservations.  In both the 6th and the 9th I had Jamie Ness runners in races where the claiming tag was less than 40% --> that is a 47% win angle.  My hesitation had been that instead of one of the leading riders Ness was putting Manny Cruz on board.  He's been a top Calder rider and a year ago was on fire at the prestigious Churchill spring meet.  But down here this winter he was struggling with a 12-for-140, less than 10%.  After filming my video of the Western High win I drove home, and was home in less than 40 minutes, then later watched the replays.  My worst fears were confirmed.....in the 6th Johannesboom was sent off at 3/1, but out of the gate he went to his knees and broke about ten lengths behind the field - can't put all that on Cruz, but there's a reason he's only winning 9% of his races.  And in the 9th where Drunken Love was the clear speed of the turf sprint, Cruz let the rail runner have the lead and stalked him.  Front-runners, as I've often said, do NOT run well if not on the lead.....sure enough, Drunken Love stalked a pace that should have been comfortable for him, but you could tell, he wasn't on the lead, so when they turned for home he had no interest in passing horses.....4th.  Still, for the day I'd cashed 3-of-7 and was in the black for the day :)  A good day to be at the races.

Wednesday March 13

Best Bet - And Smart Move By Me - Saves The Day

The weather was glorious and with the end of the meet in sight I told myself I had better take advantage of being able to go to Gulfstream and headed out for a sequence of five races where I had a bet.  Like last week the first thing I took care of was cashing big tickets from Saturday and I added over $100 to my bankroll.  In my first selection of the day I had the 5/2 second choice with Joel Rosario on board.  He was running late, but with the short stretch of the alternate finish line in 8 1/2 furlong races she ran out of room - 2nd.  I doubled the bet on another Rosario runner who went off at a good price of 5/1, and was the choice of both the Gulfstream in-house, on-air analysts.  But she was an even fifth....the only runner of the day to not run well.  Ironically I wrote this about my third choice:  "I would be all over 8-Geometry-Under normal circumstances - lightly raced, good tactical speed, just missed at this level last out and was well clear of the show horse - but for one thing....trainer numbers:  0-for-17 at the meet.  YIKES!"  You guessed it, won by daylight at a big 6/1....sigh....... In the 6th I had yet another Rosario-ridden runner in Prince of Speed.  A solid 9/2 price and he surged to the lead with the short stretch run, only to be nailed by a stretch runner.  Figures - I have the stretch runner, I don't get there.....I have the leader, I'm nailed by the late runner.  Second again - interesting side note on the winner.  He was 12/1 in the program and marooned in the outside post with the short run to the first turn.  But he was bet all the way down to 5/2 and won in spite of the draw.  

The 7th was my "best" of the day where I planned to up the bet on Code of Conduct.  The race was nine furlongs on the turf for non-winners of three lifetime.  One of my favorite angles, and I nearly always restrict my bets in conditioned claimers like this to this angle - is to find the one runner who's never run for a conditioned tag....even better if it's their first time for a tag.  Both angles fit Code of Conduct.  Through the summer he'd put up big efforts against allowance company and a run like that would make him an easy winner.  And I thought you could make real excuses for his last three that appeared to darken his form.  Three back he was fifth beaten over ten lengths but had the comment "stumbled badly" - an obvious excuse.  Two back he was at the Fair Grounds when they had all the rain and the turf event was moved to the main track - an obvious toss.  In his last the comment read "bumped at the break."  If you looked at his running line carefully you could see that was rushed to press the leaders and when he tired you could excuse it on the break comment alone, but there was a second comment "wide both turns."  Obvious that after rushing up and racing wide he'd tired against better.  The drop down in class should wake him up.  When I looked at the board he was being very well bet.  I decided that the betting supported my selection and that I had a far better chance than I had reflected in my originally planned investment.  So I went "prime time" and put $20 to win.  Good for me after going winless on the day to this point that I had that kind of confidence still in my handicapping!  As they turned for home jockey John Velazquez gave him the "GO" signal and he was gone.  WHOO HOO!  I cashed for $40 and was near even on the day....with a single winner.  

In the last race I faced a dilemma - a Todd Pletcher entry in a 3yo race, seems obvious, but wait....NEITHER of his go-to riders is on board and they are both here today.  Hmmmm.  They went off at 2/1 and one ran third.  Should have passed, but it was ok - I enjoyed the day and nearly broke even.  From the ten races on the day I had two other winners listed on top, 30% on the day (one at $8 one at $7+) and I also had three other winners listed in my top three!  Tomorrow is supposed to be a big cooler, but I have selections in the first four races so I'll go out again and enjoy being outside :)

 

What A Great WEEK

Week 2 of March

It was a fabulous week at the track......here are the statistics:  

 

The stakes winners from Saturday with their big numbers:  

Believe You Can  

 Discreet Dancer  

 Verrazano  

 Delauney  

 Hear the Ghost  

And here's the recap video....

ANOTHER Winning Days Tops A BIG Week

Sunday March 10

The week has produced the finest roll of winners since the opening week of February, and THE BIGGEST week of profits!  You never would have guessed it would be a profitable day if you'd been on board through the first half of the card however.  In the first three races I failed to reach the winner's circle and was second in two of the three.  Christmas Rush in the second went to post as the 5/2 second choice and became one of the few horses trained by Michael Maker, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey and ridden by Joel Rosario NOT to win.... especially this week they've been on fire.  Only second best today to my third choice when run down in mid-stretch.  My pick in the 4th came down to comparing jockeys.....The Candidate had Javier Castellano had 52 wins and a 20% win average - rider for Trade Rumor had 7 wins and a 7% average.....I was a distant fifth while the 7% rider posed for a picture.  Wow.  In the 6th Daddy Loves Gold was sent out by Bill Mott.  That alone makes you take notice.  But he gave a leg up to Johnny Velazquez - back in South Florida after having a HUGE day at Tampa on Saturday - this rider-trainer combo was clicking at 44%!  I could not believe Daddy Loves Gold went off at 9/2.  Led from start to deep stretch with my double investment.....I'm collecting over $50....and then he was caught nearing the wire by my second pick.  That hurt.  

 In the 7th I was thinking outside the box.....it was a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds and older.  I liked Miss Montauk, but for an unusual reason.  Trainer Jane Cibelli has been having a good meeting here at Gulfstream, winning about 20%.  But she's having a big meet at Tampa.  Miss Montauk had been working very well for her debut.....over the Tampa surface.  And yet, Cibelli brought her to Gulfstream to debut!  That told me she thought she had a big shot at the bigger purse offered here.  At the top of the lane she was half a dozen lengths behind the favorite who looked to wire the field, but I could tell......the favorite was tiring and I had all the momentum.  Caught her under a hand ride inside the final fifty yards for my first winner on the day.  The price wasn't as high as I thought, but the $9.40 payoff allowed me to cash to the tune of $23.50 and I was less than $2 behind with a single win on a minimum bet!  

Right back in the 8th with a Todd Pletcher Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play.  In his last Cross Traffic had won his second consecutive race.  All the usual angles applied:  Velazquez on board (43%), second start of the meet (47%), rise in class (44%), and a dirt route (40%).  But what really impressed me was that when drawing clear in that debut he'd earned a sparkling 94 Beyer.  And the runner-up came back to win by eleven widening lengths, earning an even bigger 96 Beyer.  The fact that he was back in the race, with that big number I thought would help our price.....in spite of the fact that he'd beaten him last time.  The conundrum was the fact the third contender was ANOTHER Pletcher runner.  But to me, the potential to be something special was centered on Cross Traffic.  He tracked the pace to the turn and then drew off like something special......look for him in a stakes race next out!  

I have to admit I was surprised I did not win the 10th....but even as I wrote my analysis I KNEW that track logic dictated I would not.  In the former I liked the Michael Maker trained, Ken & Sarah Ramsey owned, Joel Rosario ridden Let's Do It.  Not only did he have the connections, but he was first off the claim.  He was allowed to go off at 5/2 and made the "winning move" three wide on the final turn.  The favorite, ridden by a lesser rider spent the entire trip trapped on the rail.....but as the field turned for home a golden highway on the rail opened as everyone moved two off the rail and he nailed me inside the final 100 yards.  Wow.  And just as I'd KNOWN would happen, in the finale - where I had another Maker-Ramsey-Rosario runner, Brickyard Kitten, I won.  But I had thought that Let's Do It had a better chance being first off the claim so I'd only doubled the bet on Brickyard Kitten.  She was dropping back in class and proved much the best, and at a lower price - 9/5.  But the payoff enabled me to not only profit from the two runners combined but allowed me to finish 3-for-7 on the day and a BIG winner for the week!

 

 

Saturday March 9

Tampa Bay Derby Day / GP Handicap Day

A   H - U - G - E   DAY AT THE RACES

What a SUPERB day at the track!  It was destined to be a great day as I was on track with my "track buddy" and best friend Keith.  We go back YEARS as friends and fellow racing enthusiasts.  The one thing I'd change about my retirement / racing adventures if I had the power to do so would be that Keith lived in South Florida still and he was with me at the races like the old days........ 

The day started off with a bang when I scored immediately out of the gate in the opener at Gulfstream with Conquesta.  Typically I will NEVER bet a maiden after five or six losses, but like all things in racing - "never say never!"  Today Conquesta was claimed by Marty Wolfson for $25K two back and he put her in $50K company where she missed in a photo.  Today was 2nd-time-Wolfson and dropped back to $25K maiden claimers.....easily!  

I KNEW not to bet the opener at Tampa, but couldn't get past the fact that multiple stakes winner It's Me Mom was the lone speed....even though I was nearly certain she couldn't carry it 6 1/2 furlongs, and off a layoff.  But I bet anyway.....8th....sigh.  But I scored right back in the second at Gulfstream when Sonja's Angel was MUCH the best.  She was 2nd off the claim for Peter Walder - a Gulfstream Park 40% Club angle (over the last two years he's won with 60% of those!).  

Following that win I was 3rd, off-the-board, and 2nd in three races before scoring at Tampa in their 5th.  It was an allowance race for 3-year-olds on the turf and what figured to be the odds-on choice was Noble Tune.  He had debuted for Chad Brown last fall with an emphatic win going two-turns over the turf, then dominated in the Grade 3 Pilgrim in his second start.  In his third and final start of the year he was a fast-closing second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  He just laid over this field and I anticipated him launching his big kick from mid-pack when entering the final turn.  But as Keith and I watched it, he was LAST as the leaders spun out of the turn into the stretch.  He had been 1/9 and then 1/5 when I bet and they entered the gate.  Keith said to me, "He just didn't fire today..." and just then you saw a burst and it was without question the MOST AMAZING stretch run in allowance company I've ever seen.....from dead last to WIN!  Though it was a blanket finish, I knew he'd won - see the photo:  

And even better, his odds had floated up to 1-2, so my triple investment yielded a return of well over $20.  I gave Todd Pletcher's Oistin's Town one last chance (lost with him twice already) and he let me down again, but at a tempting 6/1 price.  Then it was back to Tampa for the 6th.  It was so similar to the 5th.....this was a dirt sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs and somehow the crowd let Jarrod's Commando go off at 7/2.  First, he was trained by Jamie Ness for powerful Midwest Thoroughbreds, and that is a 40% winning combination all over the country, but especially at Tampa when top rider Daniel Centeno is on board.  For the last several years those guys team up and it's always odds-on.  The most effective angle with those two is when the runner is first off the claim, like today!  The horse seemed to break slowly, but I immediately thought Centeno wanted to get off the rail and rally.  But as they hit the far turn, much like Noble Promise he was WAY back.  No chance at the 1/8th pole, but then, like Noble Tune he came surging late....it was going to be close, but with 100 yards to run I couldn't believe what I was watching.....Centeno was just hand riding him - he knew he had the momentum to win and he did!  He paid a stellar $9.20 and I cashed for nearly $50!  AWESOME!  

But, I then went on the longest run of the day without a winner - over an hour and five races.  As Keith and I stood inside the simulcast area waiting for the 6th at the Fair Grounds I remarked to him - "I'd like to get back on the winning track here, and then in the next ten races or so I have a LOT of confidence in at least six of them!"  Propelleroneway was my pick at the Fair Grounds on the turf and he rallied W-A-Y out in the middle of the course, and ran through the stretch about ten wide off the rail!  But he was an easy winner.....here we go!  

Less than ten minutes later we were in our reserved seats watching as Todd Pletcher's Red River was debuting in Maiden Special company.  That's an automatic play at Gulfstream, and he supported my confidence by drawing off to an easy score!  Couldn't believe I was able to cash for nearly $30 on a Pletcher 3-year-old....wow!  

I was surprised when Forces of Darkness did NOT win in the Grade 3 Hillsborough Stakes at Tampa on the turf - as it turned out it was the only race of the day that John Velazquez did NOT win on the super Tampa Bay Derby stakes-laden card.  Then it was time for my "BET OF THE DAY" - it was at the Fair Grounds and it was the $150K New Orleans Ladies Stakes.  Believe You Can was going to be odds on, I knew that.  She was a multiple graded stakes winner, winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks last spring, and had beat a field like this - not a single foe had even FACED graded company - by ten widening lengths a month ago while never taking a deep breath.  But here was the amazing thing.....with two minutes to post time none, NONE of the other five horses had a single dollar bet on them to win!  The entire pool was on Believe You Can!  Some fools finally bet a couple of the others, but that was obviously in vain as she cruised to an statsitic-padding win for me :))  

After missing in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn I was right back in the winner's circle with one of my all-time favorite horses, Hyper.  I'd won with him on many occasions, but he is nearly unbeatable here at Gulfstream.  In fact, he was 4-for-4 here until a month ago when he made his first start off a long layoff for Chad Brown.  He'd spent over a month in Europe AND he broke slowly that day on his return, leaving him with too much to do.  He was a good third.  So I was willing to give him that one.  With Todd Pletcher's Finale in the field I figured to get a fair price, but never figured on 5/2.  Especially since after I'd had Finale in a high priced claimer he had failed in allowance company, so I was pretty sure he was not the winner here.  Though close on the wire, Finale was chasing Hyper through the length of the stretch and I was certain I'd win.....and I did.  But I was amazed and delighted that he paid a big $7.20, so I cashed for over $50 on my triple investment!  WHOOO HOOOOO!  

We walked inside and it was the premier event of the day.....THE TAMPA BAY DERBY!  I had cashed on Todd Pletcher's Verrazano in his debut on New Year's Day debut and his dazzling win going a one-turn mile in allowance company a month ago.  I remarked to Kim at the time that "this could be my Derby horse!"  But I was amazed that with just two career starts, never having gone two turns, never facing stakes company, he was on most handicapper's Kentucky Derby list.....AS THEIR TOP CHOICE!  He had a lot to prove today, and it was probably the "smart thing" to bet against him.  But I thought he really was the best three-year-old in the country.  When I read in the Racing Form how excited Pletcher was, and then saw on HRTV jockey John Velazquez say the only horse he'd ever ridden that was this exciting was the ultra-talented Uncle Mo....I knew I was right.  He stumbled out of the gate a little, then had to be steadied as Velazquez got him outside of a front-runner determined to go to the lead from an outside post on the first turn.  But then it was all over as Velazquez never asked him.  He was so dominant - and never really asked for his best.  As the HRTV analysts remarked - he had a bit of trouble, got some dirt in his face and overcame all of it to be dazzling again.  WOW.  

My next was at Santa Anita, in another Maiden Special for 3-year-olds.  What made this unique was that my top pick, Red Tesla had not raced in A FULL YEAR!  But Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has just silly-good statistics with extended layoffs like this and Red Tesla won by open lengths while TONS the best.....another $20+ return on my double-down bet!  And to finish off my sizzling streak of wins, it was time for the feature at Gulfstream, the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap.  It was my "BEST" of the Day here....and I did NOT like the defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion Fort Larned who left the gate as the odds-on favorite!  First, today was a one-turn mile, and he is a classic-distance runner; second he had not been out since November in the Breeders' Cup;  third, I know he's got bigger targets down the line so I figured he would not be cranked up all the way;  and I'd read as much in the Racing Form from his trainer.  I also did NOT like the fact that horse he beat in a thrilling photo for the championship was Mucho Macho Man who I think is HIGHLY overrated, had come back to run here in the Donn Handicap and failed miserably....and this is the only track where he typically runs his best!  I told Keith, "If Fort Larned wins, it's because he's just way too talented for these...." and then I pointed out in the Racing Form - this time last year he kicked off his championship season when he LOST in a starter handicap, that's right, not even a stakes race....AT TAMPA!  All that added up to me a real chance to beat the champ today.  I thought a real viable alternative was Todd Pletcher's very talented Discreet Dancer.  He had set a track record in his debut here last winter; then dazzled in his one-turn mile allowance test.  Then he was a tiring third behind future Grade 1 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth.  Off for nearly a year he returned to WIN here, as my best of the day when on track with my Mom in February.  Add all this up, he was my "BEST"  Well, it was made ultra easy for me because on the second jump out of the gate Fort Larned went to his knees and tossed his regular rider, who'd flown in to ride today just for this mount!  It was all over but the amount Discreet Dancer would win by!  I'm not sure how good Fort Larned would have run, he actually led the entire race - of course he didn't have a jockey on board..... 

But it didn't matter because the official winner was Discreet Dancer and I collected nearly $60 on my "BEST" at Gulfstream - a Todd Pletcher horse no less :)  And I'd cashed on back-to-back "BEST BETS" - and had already cashed on my "BET of the DAY!"  I'm having a VERY good day!  

I still had two winners on my sheet as it turned out.....I lost in a four-way photo at Tampa in my last bet there (John Velazquez wins again!) and then in my co-best at the Fair Grounds I was all over Delauney in the Duncan Kenner Stakes.  Though it was an ungraded event and he'd beat these guys in their last three outings, his Beyers - and even "experts" were saying - were Breeders' Cup-like.  He was the easiest of winners!  I had $30 to win and got back nearly $40.  Interestingly I had considered betting what would have been a chalky "Bet-3" with Believe You Can - ALL - Delauney.  With seven horses that would have cost $14.  The payoff - $9.40 :)  Smart guy to pass on that bet!  

I closed out the live day of racing with two losses and made my final two bets before Keith and I headed to Outback for steak to celebrate our winning days!  And yes, we both had big days.  As we left I was up about $50 and Keith, after "firing away" all day had been $15 ahead going into the final race at Gulfstream.  He put $100 to show on a 5/1 horse ridden by Javier Castellano, who'd had a big day with five wins.  The horse ran second and the show payout was a nice $5.80....he cashed for $290 so he netted for the day just over $200!  YAY KEITH!  When we got home from a great dinner - thank you my friend - I turned on the HRTV recording to watch my last two plays.  In the Grade 3 Razorback Horse-for-the-Course Alternation was a disappointing fifth at Oaklawn.  My final bet was my UPSET OF THE DAY!  It was in the feature at Santa Anita, the Grade 3 San Felipe - their last major prep for the Santa Anita Derby.  The "big horse" out there was Flashback for Hall of Famer trainer Bob Baffert.  But, I wasn't a fan....he'd only been out twice and had run easy loose-on-the-lead races so far in just two career starts.  The second choice was Goldencents, who I'd had in his last.  He too was a loose-on-the-lead runner, but in his last, a win in the Grade 3 Sham, he'd shown an ability to sit just off the front-runner.  He'd only lost once, to the juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby last year, and he didn't "NEED the lead."  But when he'd won the Sham, instead of drawing away from his overmatched rivals he just grinded away to win by about two lengths leaving me unimpressed.  Then on Friday I saw that HRTV analyst Jeff Seigle listed Hear the Ghost in his top fifteen Kentucky Derby list.....and he had never been two turns or in a stakes, but had excellent breeding and apparently some talent.  He commented that's who he liked in the San Felipe.  When I looked at the race I thought the two favorites could possibly duel each other into submission, and who ever survived would be vulnerable to a late runner, like Hear the Ghost.  Could not have been more spot-on.  Flashback won the battle and at the furlong marker was in front, but here came Hear the Ghost with a full head of steam......and he nailed him inside the final fifty yards.  He'd been bet down lower than I thought he would, to 5/1, but still paid $13.80.  My double investment means I'll cash on my next visit to the track to the tune of nearly $70!  And now my big day became a HUGE day with over $100 in profits!  What an AWESOME day!

SHOULD Have Won Today - The "Official" Photo?

Friday March 8

Things started off sweetly, but then I just had to shake my head when I "officially" did not win for the day.  In the opener I had Swear Me In on the turf.  He was allowed to go off as the 5/2 second choice instead of the short-priced favorite.  He split horses at the top of the stretch and then drew off as much the best......I only had the minimum investment, but got back nearly $20.  

In my second of four investment plays I ran a distant 6th at 5/1 with a Todd Pletcher turf horse.  That's the good and the bad about Pletcher on the turf I've found.  The bad news is they don't win with nearly the consistency as his main track runners, but that's offset by the fact that win they win, it's at a nice price.  My pick in the 6th scratched, but in the 7th we were back on the turf with maiden special 3-year-olds.  And yes, there was a Pletcher runner, Path of Dreams.  John Velazquez sent him to the front, he turned for home with a clear lead; had a clear lead at the 16th pole and then it was oh-so-close with my third choice on the wire.  But even the slow-motion seemed to indicate I'd won.  I showed it to my best pal Keith who is visiting for the weekend and he said, "Oh yes, clearly the inside horse won, you got it!"  And the frame was frozen as the "official" finish.....then the announcement - I was second.  You look, what do you think?  

In the finale I was second best, again, when a Kirk Ziadie/Team Calabrese runner - a Gulfstream 40% Club play was beaten by another 40% Club Play trained by Jason Servis.  So for the day I was 4/1-2-0 and lost a little.  On to tomorrow where it's a BIG day of racing and Keith and I will enjoy the day at Gulfstream together!

A VERY Good Day At The Races

Thursday March 7

I had six betting selections today, including three of the first four races so I decided to head on out to Gulfstream for the first part of the afternoon.  It was a crisp day with beautiful blue skies and the highs barely got to 70 degrees, so I enjoyed wearing my jacket to ward off the always present Gulfstream breezes on the grandstand side.  My first selection was in the opener where I knew Divine Child would be the favorite, but as I walked through the breezeway I was surprised she was being hammered to 1-9 in the early betting.  Then I noted that out of the seven horse field there were three scratches.  Checked my selection sheet and the only two runners I thought had a legitimate chance to take down the favorite - owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey, trained by Michael Maker, ridden by Joel Rosario....a very lethal combination all meet long - had both been scratched.  I doubled the bet to compensate and hoped there would be a some action from the "value players" who would try to beat the obvious winner.  And there was, her price floated up to 3/5 which was a huge overlay.  She broke on top and just pranced around the track opening up by double digits under a firm hold through the lane!  WHOOO HOOOO!  

I had to take a photo in the winner's circle as I've cashed SOOO many winners with this owner-trainer-jockey combination.  I passed the second, so I took advantage of the free time to finish my handicapping for Saturday's card.  I had been such a clever fellow by printing off the last four races so I could do this at the races in between races.  

In the third I had labeled the race my "UPSET of the DAY" when I put Workin For Hops on top who was listed at 8/1 in the program.  It was a 8 1/2 furlong turf event for older runners and Workin For Hops had earned a half million dollars on the grass, and was a mutliple stakes winner.  BUT....he had not won in almost two years.  Still, today he went first time for trainer Chris Block and he had good workouts.  I also thought he looked to either be loose on the lead or pressing an easy pace.  If he was even close to the horse he used to be, he was a very likely winner.  I was encouraged that Gulfstream Handicapper Ron Nicoletti also put him on top....but I was disappointed that his odds were depressed down to 2-1 through the betting.  Luckily when they left the gate he had floated up to 5/2 and I felt better.  I have to also add that not only did I double the bet on Workin For Hops, but I went AGAINST a Todd Pletcher horse!  Just as I expected, Workin For Hops went right to the front and was L-O-N-G gone.....easy, peasy, pie!  Got back nearly $40!  YEEESSSSSS!  

In the next it was one of my two "best" of the day.  In her debut Calistoga had gone out for Bill Mott and crushed her maiden special rivals earning a huge 97 Beyer.  With horses like this you always have to ask yourself, do they legitimately have talent or will they bounce off the big number debut.  I was convinced she would move into stakes company next time out, and the crowd bet her accordingly.  She was 1/9 for the longest time, briefly floated to 2/5 which I thought was higher than she ought to be, but settled at 1/5.  And she ran like a 1/5 runner.....walked with it, and I'm 3-for-3!  

I made my bets for the last three races and headed for home - delighted with the way the afternoon was going.  In the 7th I was 3rd at 7/2 and in the 9th I was a fast-closing 2nd at 7/2, but in between was the 8th....my "BET OF THE DAY."  My pick in the 1 3/8th mile allowance test was #1 Aigue Marine.  She had earned a 104 Timeform number in her final European start, shipped to the US and ran 3rd in the Grade 3 Long Island, beaten less than a length.  Using the standard -14 conversion for Timeform to Beyer, that meant she had basically run her race here.  And those two numbers were clearly superior to all the LIFETIME best figures earned by her rivals today.  I was all in, prime-time.  She broke cleanly, sat just off the leader, then on the turn glided to the lead and romped home by daylight....my fourth win of the day!  

For the day I finished a super 4-for-6 with a second and a third, and profited over $40 for the day!  A great start to the week.  And how ironic I thought after the day's races were concluded.  I had just been telling Kim after Sunday's races that it is so very hard to win at Gulfstream, and that I needed to pick up my win percentages locally!