Wednesday January 9

Start The Week With A Winning Day

The start of the week saw me with six selections on the card.  The first was in the second race where I had selected For All The Glory who was a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club selection, listed at 6/1 in the program.  But he scratched, so I had to wait for the third.  It was a claiming event on the turf where the ten three-year-olds had a combined THREE turf starts!  My first inclination was to pass the race.  But when I got to #7-Scofield I was interested that his only turf start was in an overnight stakes race at Belmont.  Somebody must have had high opinions on his ability.  I made him my first play of the week, and he responded as much the best and started my week off in the winner's circle!  

In the 4th I had selected a longshot......#2-Blackstone was 12/1 in the program and was sent out by Gerald Procino.  I keep waiting for one of his runners to pop, and the wait SHOULD be worth it as over the last two winters his dirt sprinters had won seven times and a $2 bet on those would have returned nearly $200!  Those kind of numbers made supported my backing this big-priced entry.  Never in it at 23/1, 8th.  When I handicapped the 5th - a first level turf allowance for sophomore fillies - my first thought was that I should go against the last out winner Tapicat.  But the more I looked at her I thought she had all the indications of a star in the making.  She was a $725K Keeneland graduate, owned by the powerful Besilu stables (who also own 2x Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Royal Delta), and trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.  She'd run well in her first start, but that was a dirt sprint.  When she made her second start, here, going two turns on the grass I'd supported her and she'd wired the field with ease as the 7/5 favorite.  The pace was soft that day and I didn't think she'd go to the front today, but she appeared to have a wealth of talent.  In fact I wrote that this race might well be looked back on as a race full of future graded stakes winners as there looked to be several stars in the making.  But Tapicat had improved her Beyer by nearly twenty points, indicating real ability on the grass.  The crowd sent her off at 8/5 and top rider Joel Rosario sent her to the front.  The fractions were solid, if anything they were fast and could have done her in.  But as they hit the far turn she was on a loose rein and was widening her margin.  As they turned for home Rosario asked her to run, and as you can see in the photo below, she was a runaway winner.  The analysts on HRTV commented that they wanted to call Mott and persuade him to enter her in next month's Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes!  I'd doubled the bet on her and collected nearly $30, which guaranteed me a winning day.  

In the next race I thought Southern Dunn would win handily as he was a 40% Club play from the powerful Frank Calabrese barn, trained by Kirk Ziadie.  Broke slowly and came flying up to catch the loose-on-the-lead front-runner, but couldn't get by and lost by half a length.  My last pick was another longshot, 20/1 on Imperial Czar.  He ran a credible 4th, good handicapping, no monetary reward.  

For the day I was 2-for-5 (40%) and was ahead for the day!  Tomorrow I'll be on track for racing from not only Gulfstream Park, but also from Aqueduct, the Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita!

January 2013 - Week 1 (Jan 1-6) Recap

YES!  End the Week in a B - I - G Way!

January 7

If you have followed my racing adventures at Gulfstream you know it has been a real roller-coaster ride, and especially this week.  On Tuesday January 1 I has hot as a firecracker to start the year.  I scored in five of seven including my best of the day.  I finished with a big profit and thought "here we go!" as I looked to move into the black for the meet.  But then Thursday and Friday were back down to "close-but-no-cigar" again as I only cashed ONE ticket at Gulfstream.  No worries, Saturday was certain to be a big day.....but instead I lost out on what were "near-certain" wins costing me nearly $300 in winnings.  As I got online for today's races the first thing I had to do was check to see if I had enough money in my account to cover my selections.  I did the numbers and if I had another "down" day I would be nearly cleaned out, but I could cover all my bets.  So I made them - and I have to mention, again, I was proud of myself to NOT back off.  I believe in my handicapping and I KNOW that the wins will come, so I went with my selections as I had analyzed them earlier this week.  

In my first bet of the day, it was the first of SIX Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club plays.  Exclusive Force was my selection - trained by Kirk Ziadie, he was running in a $16K claimer for Team Calabrese.  Ziadie wins 63% in claiming races under $40K and off a long layoff.  A longshot ran by the field on the turn and won by about eight lengths.....second.  Arrrgggghhh.  Not the way I thought the day would start.  I won the third race, at 3/1 - unfortunately, as seems to be the case recently, it was a "PASS" race for me....wow.  In the 4th I selected 1-Pecky's Boy as the speed on the rail.  But I listed on top #14 Major Marvel.  This guy had just missed on Opening Day in a Claiming Crown stakes race and then come back to score as my "BET of the Day" in his next start at this level.  He was on the "AE" list and I noted that if he were able to draw in that he would be a top selection in spite of the wide draw.  When I went to make my bets I was very surprised that indeed he had drawn in due to two scratches.  For a moment I hesitated and thought, ....is this the kind of spot where I'd be wise to avoid the race?  Certainly he'll be a short-priced favorite; coming off a dominant win, he might be vulnerable from the wide draw?  So I re-read my analysis and said "NO" - I was right, and made the bet.  Jockey Javier Castellano asked him early to clear most of the field and he had Major Marvel third, just three wide, as they turned down the backside.  On the far turn he asked Major Marvel for his best.  He appeared to me to be feeling the affects of his last-out dominant win, but he was simply too good for this field.  I WIN!  HORRAY!  

In the fifth I was right back into a GP Handicapper selection.  Trainer Jamie Ness is a Club member with runners in for less than $40K, like Ziadie - 47% for Ness.  And, like my first selection, Megalith was first off a Gulfstream claim, and that is a 57% angle for Ness.  I tripled the bet......he stalked the pace to the turn then when asked for his run he was empty.  Very disappointing.  Right back in the 6th I was on another Kirk Ziadie horse, another GP Club play with Blues and Silver.  He was part of an entry with two different trainers and riders, but I noted I did NOT like the entry, but would take the added insurance.  Blues and Silver went right to the lead and slowed the pace down comfortably.  As they hit the far turn and the other riders began to ask their horses for run to close the gap Blues and Silver hit another gear and was quickly long gone.  I'd doubled the bet for my second winner!  YAY ME!  

When I was handicapping the races and turned the virtual page to the 7th I remarked in my analysis, "....what is this, Kirk Ziadie day?...."  The angles, by the Gulfstream 40% Club sheet were enough to make him a solid play.  Running for a $10K tag (a whopping 63% angle); in a dirt sprint (41% win); and coming off a long layoff (again a HUGE 63% win angle).  So I was planning to at least double the bet.  But as I looked through the field he not only was far and away the best, but the competition was probably the weakest of any of my GP Handicapper plays today.  So, in spite of this being a low-level claiming event, he was my "BET of the Day."  

I've often said throughout my handicapping adventures that one of the great things about thoroughbred racing is that you can find a good bet, a "BEST" of the day on any day of the week, at any racing level.  They pay the same for a bottom-level claimer as they do for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup championship race.  But, this story had more to it.  And keep in mind how the opening bet of the day had gone when Exclusive Force had disappointed under nearly identical circumstances.  Rough'n Royal shot right out of the gate - and immediately I was excited because instead of being odds-on, which I thought under the circumstances she deserved to be, somehow the crowd had let him go off at better than 5/2!  He was on the lead and had the rail.  But before the first quarter mile a 40-1 longshot came up to challenge him.  As they dueled through the opening quarter I thought, "don't let this guy soften you up, put him away."  But as they began to approach the far turn the rider decided he'd be better off to let the longshot go on with it and try to move off the rail.  As they ran through the turn however Rough'n Royal was not ready to pounce, he was fading.  The disappointment would have been so obvious on my face if you had been watching me.  But as heads turned for home he seemed to find another gear....but so had the longshot leader.  At the furlong marker though you could see I was making progress and just might collar the leader.  Then, here came a late runner right up to my neck!  But inside the final 16th the "Ziadie-angles" kicked in and he cleared the field to score under wraps!  The payoffs were enough that I nearly collected $75 on my "BEST of the Day!"  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!  I am guaranteed to end the week a winner!  

I had two more GP Handicapper 40% Club plays, but missed with both. The first of them was a Pletcher turf runner.  I know he's not at his best in turf routes, and Patrice Merion was dropping into 2-lifetime company.  But as I noted, you are either in on Pletcher or you are trying to beat him.  You just can't guess when he is going to win and when he isn't.  Right there turning for home, no late punch - 4th.  In the 9th it was another Pletcher runner.  I really thought this could be "one of those" where he wins at a price....not just because of all the GP Handicapper angles, but because top jockey Joel Rosario was riding.  Rosario had moved his tack to Gulfstream this winter (instead where he dominates in Southern California) in search of a Derby horse.  Who has all the Derby horses?  Pletcher!  So today was his first mount for Pletcher, and I just knew that he'd ride the hair off the horse.  Early on he was not with the leaders and faded badly at a huge 6/1.  Oh well, I'm a winner at Gulfstream to close the week!  

But wait......I had one more play.  The feature at Santa Anita today was the Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes.  And it had two things about the race that I just loved.  First, it was a turf sprint down the hillside, and I LOVE to handicap those races.  More importantly the likely favorite was Mizdirection.  If you follow my adventures that name should ring a bell - she was my top pick against the boys last out.....in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and I'd tripled the bet!  She had rallied down the middle of the track to score, paying a whopping $15.80 and I collected over $100.  With that win she ran her record down the hillside to a perfect 3-for-3.  She seemed a slam dunk in here.  And then I analyzed the race.  It was a small field and there was one and only one front-runner.  The dilemma was what should rider Mike Smith do?  Mizdirection had won on the lead/pressing the lead, but by far her best performances were closing into a hot pace.  The field broke from the gate and immediately none of the other riders went up to challenge the front runner.  You could almost see Mike Smith making the calculations and nearing the half-mile marker he moved up to be within a length of the loose-on-the-lead runner.  The question was, did she have her same closing punch?  As they crossed the dirt track and everyone accelerated it was the front-runner that seemed to have the best closing punch.  But then Smith went to work on her and she began to respond, but as they moved inside the final furlong she still had a lot of work to do, especially at the rate she was moving.  But suddenly at the 16th pole she seemed to acknowledge that the time had come to get the job done!  She found not just another gear, but a turbo gear and she just exploded to get up JUST in time.  YEEEESSSSSS!  I had tripled the bet, so I collected nearly another $30 to finish the day a fabulous 4-for-8 and with a profit of nearly $50!  

So I'd bookended the week - started off on New Year's Day with a 5-for-7 performance and closed the week with a 4-for-8 performance.....both with solid profits on the day!  We're back at the races Wednesday, and I think I'll head out to be there as I've not been at Gulfstream since December 29th.

Saturday January 6

And That's Racing....sigh.....

After struggling through Thursday and Friday's races I was ready to cash some tickets on Saturday, and tripled the investment in the 2nd when Quiz Whiz was sent out by trainer Jamie Ness.  According to the Gulfstream Park Handicapper he was a 57% winner first off the Gulfstream claim and a 40% winner with runners in for less than a $40K tag, as well as a 40% winner with horses owned by Midwest Thoroughbreds.  Somehow he was allowed to leave the gate at 9/2.  Through the turn he was full of run and I was very excited because I just KNEW he was going to blow by them. Sure enough he blew by and was clear in the lane.  He shifted out a couple of paths at the 1/8th pole, but he was already clear of the others and won going away.  I had already begun calculating my winnings when it was announced there was an objection and a steward's inquiry.....really?

I was watching the races on HRTV and BOTH commentators watched the replay and said that they were fairly certain there would be no change in the order.  He had shifted out, but he was already clear and even if there was a little interference it certainly would not have affected the outcome of the race.  Then the one analyst noted that her only concern was that a week ago in a similar situation where they had been certain the stewards would not make a change, they had.  That was my first red flag.....sure enough, the number was taken down.  Certainly, that is racing - it's part of the risk you take, but boy that one hurt.  A win there at odds of 4.5-1 would have meant I collected over $80 and would have been a guaranteed winner for the day.  Instead I'm down $15 - that's a swing of nearly $100, and no matter how good you are, that's hard to recover from.  Especially so when I'm struggling to cash this week.  

In the very next play I was coming up the rail with what I thought was a winning move - at 4/1 with a double investment - when I was checked by the favorite.  Would have been ok had the favorite won and I finished second, but no, he faded to 2nd and I was third.  The DQ of the favorite to move me to second was little consolation.  Now I SHOULD have been 2-for-2 and collected almost $150.....instead I'm 0-for-2 and lost $25 :(  

My racing "luck" continued when after finishing well beaten with a longshot I tabbed a Todd Pletcher debut runner with a triple investment.  Again I was fortunate that the crowd let him go off at a HUGE 9/2.  He stalked the longshot leader through the turn, swung outside of him and swooped up.  As he drew on even turns the leader had something left.  No problem, because I KNEW the Pletcher runner would go on with it.  But they dueled to the final 100 yards and I couldn't get by.  WOW.....another possible $80 down the drain as I was a good bet-no cash second.  The day continued in this manner in my next selection which was my "BET of the DAY."  Turf runner Hyper was sent out by owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, and had just been moved into the Chad Brown barn.  First of all, Hyper OWNS this course with a turf record locally of a perfect 4-for-4; and he loves this distance (10/5-3-0).  According to the Gulfstream Handicapper Chad Brown was 43% with runners first off a layoff, another 43% with Jose Lezcano riding, and 43% for the Ramseys.  As the race unfolded Lezcano took Hyper to the back, and it was my recollection he was more of a stalker, but these guys know what they are doing.....or so I thought.  Too far back, rallied too little, too late.  The opprotunity for another $70 lost as Hyper was third.  Sigh....... 

I did have a "Best of the Day" investment on the first of the graded stakes on the road to the Kentucky Derby from Santa Anita.  I thought that Goldencents was the best of the field in the Grade 3 Sham.  My only concern was that he apparently wants the lead and there was other speed in here, most especially a Bob Baffert-trained runner.  And I knew Baffert was not going to let Goldencents steal it.  But, I'd seen an interview with the connections of Goldencents and they were VERY high on him as a Kentucky Derby contender.  So if he was anywhere near as good as they thought, he should be able to stalk and finish.  And that is exactly how it played out.  As they turned for home, for about a 16th of a mile I wondered if Goldencents would go by, but then he found another gear and was easily best.  Finally, a cashed ticket!  

In the online newsletter, "The Handicapper's Edge," one of their writers had his year-end "awards."  Two of them were so me.....His "horse I missed all year" was Little Mike -and if you read his article below, that was my year with Little Mike, except that in every instance where Little Mike lost, I had bet him that day.  Little Mike's year-end win in the Breeders' Cup turf I even wrote in my analysis that he was certain to win at a big price because I was NOT betting him.....sigh.....and the story on Black Caviar was one of my highlight races of 2012.  

 

 For the day I had only the lone win on Goldencents, but I could only thing of the "what-if" scenarios had the three Gulfstream selections won as they "shoulld" have - missed opportunities totaling nearly $300.  But hey, "that's racing."

Up and Down.....Winning and Losing

January 4

After the glorious results of New Year's Day when I cashed on five of seven with a profit of $75, I had Wednesday off from the races - which worked out well because it was Kim and my 26th wedding anniversary.  We went out to PF Chang's with Brad and celebrated our 9,490th day of marriage together :)  Kim was the one who added them up - not me!  I had high expectations to continue the winning on Thursday when racing resumed........ 

But such was not to be the case as AGAIN I was shut out - 0-for-7 including two seconds, one at 7/1 that would have made the day.  So, with that day out of the way I felt pretty sure I'd have a winning day to "even" out the results.  I won the first two races - but didn't have a bet on either one.  I knew what this probably meant - no wins with money on the line - and sure enough I went through five more races without cashing a ticket.  WOW..... finally it was time for my sixth and final race of the day, but it was my "BEST" of the day.  

Right One had graded stakes wins on his resume, but had struggled in finding the winner's circle throughout 2012.  After his last start he was moved to the Todd Pletcher barn.  And there's one thing I have noticed consistently as a pretty strong angle with Pletcher runners.  When a horse makes it's first start for his barn they are typically ready to run lights out.  And that figures.....if you had a client hand over the care of his multi-million dollar assets, wouldn't you want to demonstrate immediately that you knew what you were doing and that they had made a wise decision?  Sure enough, Right One was ready to run a big race.  He sat off the pace to the far turn, accelerated to run by the leaders and then once clear opened up on the field.  A deep closer was getting to him as the wire neared but it was too little, too late.  Tomorrow is Marshua's River Stakes Day, but I'll be home because our daughter Julie is visiting for the weekend :)

January 1, 2013 - Happy New Year!

Today was the start of a new month and a new year and in spite of scoring a solid 30% wins in the first month of the meet, I'm ready to do some damage!  The next two months are filled with top stakes action, beginning with four stakes races today.  I had originally intended to go out to the races for the first few and watch one of my favorite fillies, Kauai Katie, run live in the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes.  But I reconsidered because I'm not sure how many more January 1 bowl game bonanzas I'll have to share with my son Brad (since he's soon moving to Orlando and now engaged).  The football action had just begun when I lost the opener at Gulfstream where I'd invested in Beltram at 8/1 ... 3rd.  Good bet at a good price, but no cash.  In the second I was just DELIGHTED when the crowd did NOT send off the Todd Pletcher first-time starter, Verrazano as the favorite.  I had doubled the investment and she was MUCH the best!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  I hope the crowd in 2013 is as "dumb" as last season and I get to cash many tickets like this on Pletcher runners!  

The third was the first of the four stakes races, it was the Spectacular Bid.  In years gone by this kicked off a string of four races designed to get horses on the triple crown trail.  First would be the six furlongs Spectacular Bid, then the seven furlong Hutcheson;  next was the mile and a sixteenth Fountain of Youth; and then the nine furlong Florida Derby.  But now the Spectacular Bid is just a $100K sprint stake, strictly for sprinters.  My top pick was my top selection in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, Merit Man.  In the BC he was forced to race on the lead, and I think he's better stalking.  He led from the gate to the final jump that day (as I watched on the rail); so today I was hopeful that top rider Joel Rosario would let Brave Dave go to the lead, swing outside and stalk the leader before pouncing to win.  But, this is why Rosario is the leading rider.  As the gates opened he sprung to the front, beat all the others to the lead and wired the field!  Two for three!  Excellent!!!!!!! 

I passed the fourth, where my second choice won, and then it was time for my "BET OF THE DAY" - the Grade 3 Old Hat Stakes featuring multiple-graded stakes winner Kauai Katie.  I only had two concerns....first, coming out of the Breeders' Cup, would she bounce off that effort as so many do?  And second, would the lightly raced unbeaten Cor Cor go to the front and just not stop.  But I honestly thought that (a) sprinting is what Kauai Katie is best at, and (b) she's the best sprinter of the sophomore fillies....if not of all sophomores.  She broke sharply but when Cor Cor raced up to engage her, jockey John Velazquez let that one go by, and then eased outside to stalk her.  When they hit the turn she was about a length off her and I was worried my fears of a theft would come true, but then Johnny V. asked and Kauai Katie was L-O-N-G gone.  Her odds had floated up to 2/5, but as they left the gate somebody pounded her and she went off at a miserly 1-9.  But it was the "being right" that made me feel good....and the fact that I'd now won three of four :)  

In the 6th I had a hunch bet and decided not to invest any money.  Several years ago I had seen Bsharpsonnat win a graded stakes at Calder, exiting a stakes win at Laurel.  In the opening weeks of Gulfstream I scored with two turf winners out of that same Laurel race and was determined to make Bsharpsonnata a "Prime Time" bet the next time she ran.  Well she showed up at Gulfstream - but in a dirt sprint, the Grade 2 Forward Gal.  I stuck to my guns and she won in a thrilling finish, paying $8.40.  After that she returned to turf and had a couple more turf stakes wins before retiring.  So in handicapping the 6th today I noticed that 10-Play It Out Loud was a daughter of noneother than Bsharpsonnata.  She'd never been on the turf, but none of these sophomores looked really special, so I listed her on top.  Yes, she won, and at better than 9/1!  WOW...... The 7th was an allowance race and I liked my selection based on handicapping, but also because of his name - Bradester.  As I wrote in my analysis, I'm not sure how his connections prounounced it, but to me it looked like the nickname we call our son.....Brad-ster.  The crowd also liked him - he was easily best, winning by widening daylight at even money..... my fourth win in a row!  

The 8th was the Ginger Brew Stakes.  This race was set for a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  I was not a fan of any of the program top contenders, though the favorite did look good, but was marooned on the outside.  I was intrigued by a filly making her first start in North America for top Team Valor trainer Graham Motion, #6, Tuttipaesi.  According to the Daily Racing Form he scored at an amazing 41% with horses making their North American debut at a rate of $3.01 return for every $2 invested.  Her program odds of 12/1 seemed way out of line.  She broke slowly and bobbled somewhat, and was quickly trailing the field.  Jockey Alan Garcia gave her time to settle and I thought to myself that Euro runners are always at their best running late.  As they approached the final turn she was gaining ground, but was stuck in traffic and with a lot of work to do.  But then a seam opened and man, she exploded through.  She inhaled the leaders and drew off late.  Best part of the story.....she went off at 8/1!  AWESOME!  My fifth winner in a row; my third stakes winner of the day; and a return of $50!  

I had not added up the numbers, but now I was certain I was going to make a solid profit for the day.  I passed the Gulfstream Park Derby - my top pick had scratched and my third choice beat my second choice at 3/1.  In the final race I was sent off at a big price again, at better than 10/1.  Settled in near the back and never made any moves.  So for the day I was five for seven and had a profit of an even $75!  No racing tomorrow - since we raced today as a special holiday program - but we'll be back at it again on Thursday!

 2012 Top 25 Racing Moments