Friday January 11 - Winning Day!

I spent the morning handicapping for tomorrow, which is the Grade 2 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes Day at Gulfstream, as well as simulcasts from Aqueduct, Tampa, the Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita.  By the time I'd finished they were off and running at Gulfstream.  When I'd handicapped today's card I found only two selections from the first seven races.  I was disappointed, but at the same time I was happy that I was disciplined enough NOT to bet just for betting.  Both the first two races had near identical angles.....Jamie Ness, claiming race less than $40K, for Midwest Thoroughbreds.  All over 40% angles.... in the 3rd the pick was Sapphire County.  She went off at 2/1 and was fifth down the backstretch....when they hit the turn she had nothing and faded to 8th and last.  Uh oh..... 

In the 4th the pick was Miss Julia.  She had all the same angles, but in addition she was coming off a long layoff, yet another 40% angle.  She rated off the leaders and then like most of the other Ness-trained Midwest Thoroughbreds she glided to the front while three wide and then drew off with ease to score!  Her 7/5 odds paid for both bets and left me in the black so far!  

In handicapping the remainder of the card, the 8th presented a "BEST" of the day.  It was a maiden special for sophomores.....I was looking for a Todd Pletcher horse, and there he was!  #6-Majestic River had all the looks of a future champion....a $425 Fasig-Tipton purchase who had been training since mid-November here in Florida.  I was just a bit concerned because there was a Chad Brown first-timer and that combination had burned me a couple times, but I felt very confident today.  Majestic River stalked the front-runner - a Ken & Sarah Ramsey owned colt ridden by Joel Rosario - but as they turned for home John Velazquez asked Majestic Future and it was over!  WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!  He had been allowed to go off at 6/5 so my prime-time investment netted nearly $50 and I was assured of a winning day!  

In the 9th I liked Fog Happens who had won for me a few weeks ago but was DQ'd.  I didn't like her as much today, and she was way, way back before rallying for 4th.  In the finale I tripled the bet on a Christophe Clemente turf maiden, first-time starter Lotta Heat.  According to the Gulfstream Park Handicapper Clemente was a 40% winner with FTS at Gulfstream, but was a whopping 75% winner with horses owned by Preston Stable LLC....all the case with Lotta Heat.  She was right up with the front-runner through quick fractions, but seemed to be well within herself.  Turning for home she opened up a clear lead, at 3/1 I might add.  But then the favorite (my third choice) came running late....PHOTO FINISH!  I could tell by the head bob that I was on the short end....so close to another $50 and it would have been an AWESOME day!  Instead it was just a very good day with a profit :)

Thursday January 10 - On Track Today!

Today I headed out to Gulfstream on a glorious afternoon where the temperatures were in the low 80s and the sun was shining!  I had spent two hours at Cypress Bay today helping "the ladies" organize the 2013 graduation and then headed down to Hallandale Beach.  I missed on my first three selections.  But in my second selection at Gulfstream I was a winner!  My selection was Top Striker who was coming out of a dismal first effort here.  He'd run well earlier and I drew a line through the latest.  He went off at a nice 2/1 and was clear into the stretch, looked long gone........ 

......but on the wire it was a photo finish (I wasn't worried, but it was VERY close!).  The payoff was a nice $6.40, and with my double investment I got back over $30!  Whooo Hooo!  

I came right back to score in back-to-back Aqueduct races from New York with short priced favorites.  I was then watching the Fair Grounds pre-race show (which I had been a guest on last January!) and as they were finishing up it was announced that due to severe weather all racing was cancelled at the Fair Grounds.....cost me six selections and made for a much SLOWER day :(  The highlight story of the day however came while I was waiting for the fifth race.  I checked my Facebook and found that my cousin Anita from Louisville had obviously seen my picture I'd posted about enjoying the weather and cashing tickets at the track.  But what was unusual was she asked me to make a bet for her, AT GULFSTREAM!  I messaged her back and said sure, but how curious it was that (a) she'd ask me to make the bet, but even more so that (b) she'd know who was running at Gulfstream in a maiden race (the 7th) here in South Florida......

I ran 4th with a Todd Pletcher first-time starter, disappointing, but Anita's horse was a distant, and when I say "distant" I mean DISTANT last.....but it was a fun exchange, and I was excited for her when he left the gate at 35/1 because, you never know!  Over the next hour and a half I ran third twice and second before heading for home with five races to watch later.  

In the last five races......I was a disappointing 3rd in a turf sprint where I thought my selection was the clear speed of the race and for some reason I was in mid-pack and rallied late, never really threatened to win.  Then the finale at Gulfstream was my "BEST" of the day.  #12 Starship Valor was trained by Jamie Ness and was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play with several categories over 40%.  But the one that stood out to me was that Starship Valor had been claimed last out from a race here, and Ness is a 57% winner with those kind over the last two years.  He was TONS the best!  YAY!  

I scored my final win of the day at Santa Anita when I handicapped a claiming sprint down the mountain.  I love races over this unique course and I have found that the BIGGEST edge is to find a runner who has already proven themselves down the hill.  It is such a unique course that this pays off so much, it is almost the only thing to look for.  Well the field had a total combined record of 0-for-2, with seven runners never even been down the hill.  But my pick, #10-Belle Passe was 2-for-2.  I should have, in retrospect, bet much more.  She went off at 3/2 and was easily, EASILY the best!  I finished the day five wins from seventeen selections - 29.4% (almost my typical 30%!). 

Wednesday January 9

Start The Week With A Winning Day

The start of the week saw me with six selections on the card.  The first was in the second race where I had selected For All The Glory who was a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club selection, listed at 6/1 in the program.  But he scratched, so I had to wait for the third.  It was a claiming event on the turf where the ten three-year-olds had a combined THREE turf starts!  My first inclination was to pass the race.  But when I got to #7-Scofield I was interested that his only turf start was in an overnight stakes race at Belmont.  Somebody must have had high opinions on his ability.  I made him my first play of the week, and he responded as much the best and started my week off in the winner's circle!  

In the 4th I had selected a longshot......#2-Blackstone was 12/1 in the program and was sent out by Gerald Procino.  I keep waiting for one of his runners to pop, and the wait SHOULD be worth it as over the last two winters his dirt sprinters had won seven times and a $2 bet on those would have returned nearly $200!  Those kind of numbers made supported my backing this big-priced entry.  Never in it at 23/1, 8th.  When I handicapped the 5th - a first level turf allowance for sophomore fillies - my first thought was that I should go against the last out winner Tapicat.  But the more I looked at her I thought she had all the indications of a star in the making.  She was a $725K Keeneland graduate, owned by the powerful Besilu stables (who also own 2x Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Royal Delta), and trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.  She'd run well in her first start, but that was a dirt sprint.  When she made her second start, here, going two turns on the grass I'd supported her and she'd wired the field with ease as the 7/5 favorite.  The pace was soft that day and I didn't think she'd go to the front today, but she appeared to have a wealth of talent.  In fact I wrote that this race might well be looked back on as a race full of future graded stakes winners as there looked to be several stars in the making.  But Tapicat had improved her Beyer by nearly twenty points, indicating real ability on the grass.  The crowd sent her off at 8/5 and top rider Joel Rosario sent her to the front.  The fractions were solid, if anything they were fast and could have done her in.  But as they hit the far turn she was on a loose rein and was widening her margin.  As they turned for home Rosario asked her to run, and as you can see in the photo below, she was a runaway winner.  The analysts on HRTV commented that they wanted to call Mott and persuade him to enter her in next month's Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes!  I'd doubled the bet on her and collected nearly $30, which guaranteed me a winning day.  

In the next race I thought Southern Dunn would win handily as he was a 40% Club play from the powerful Frank Calabrese barn, trained by Kirk Ziadie.  Broke slowly and came flying up to catch the loose-on-the-lead front-runner, but couldn't get by and lost by half a length.  My last pick was another longshot, 20/1 on Imperial Czar.  He ran a credible 4th, good handicapping, no monetary reward.  

For the day I was 2-for-5 (40%) and was ahead for the day!  Tomorrow I'll be on track for racing from not only Gulfstream Park, but also from Aqueduct, the Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita!

January 2013 - Week 1 (Jan 1-6) Recap

YES!  End the Week in a B - I - G Way!

January 7

If you have followed my racing adventures at Gulfstream you know it has been a real roller-coaster ride, and especially this week.  On Tuesday January 1 I has hot as a firecracker to start the year.  I scored in five of seven including my best of the day.  I finished with a big profit and thought "here we go!" as I looked to move into the black for the meet.  But then Thursday and Friday were back down to "close-but-no-cigar" again as I only cashed ONE ticket at Gulfstream.  No worries, Saturday was certain to be a big day.....but instead I lost out on what were "near-certain" wins costing me nearly $300 in winnings.  As I got online for today's races the first thing I had to do was check to see if I had enough money in my account to cover my selections.  I did the numbers and if I had another "down" day I would be nearly cleaned out, but I could cover all my bets.  So I made them - and I have to mention, again, I was proud of myself to NOT back off.  I believe in my handicapping and I KNOW that the wins will come, so I went with my selections as I had analyzed them earlier this week.  

In my first bet of the day, it was the first of SIX Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club plays.  Exclusive Force was my selection - trained by Kirk Ziadie, he was running in a $16K claimer for Team Calabrese.  Ziadie wins 63% in claiming races under $40K and off a long layoff.  A longshot ran by the field on the turn and won by about eight lengths.....second.  Arrrgggghhh.  Not the way I thought the day would start.  I won the third race, at 3/1 - unfortunately, as seems to be the case recently, it was a "PASS" race for me....wow.  In the 4th I selected 1-Pecky's Boy as the speed on the rail.  But I listed on top #14 Major Marvel.  This guy had just missed on Opening Day in a Claiming Crown stakes race and then come back to score as my "BET of the Day" in his next start at this level.  He was on the "AE" list and I noted that if he were able to draw in that he would be a top selection in spite of the wide draw.  When I went to make my bets I was very surprised that indeed he had drawn in due to two scratches.  For a moment I hesitated and thought, ....is this the kind of spot where I'd be wise to avoid the race?  Certainly he'll be a short-priced favorite; coming off a dominant win, he might be vulnerable from the wide draw?  So I re-read my analysis and said "NO" - I was right, and made the bet.  Jockey Javier Castellano asked him early to clear most of the field and he had Major Marvel third, just three wide, as they turned down the backside.  On the far turn he asked Major Marvel for his best.  He appeared to me to be feeling the affects of his last-out dominant win, but he was simply too good for this field.  I WIN!  HORRAY!  

In the fifth I was right back into a GP Handicapper selection.  Trainer Jamie Ness is a Club member with runners in for less than $40K, like Ziadie - 47% for Ness.  And, like my first selection, Megalith was first off a Gulfstream claim, and that is a 57% angle for Ness.  I tripled the bet......he stalked the pace to the turn then when asked for his run he was empty.  Very disappointing.  Right back in the 6th I was on another Kirk Ziadie horse, another GP Club play with Blues and Silver.  He was part of an entry with two different trainers and riders, but I noted I did NOT like the entry, but would take the added insurance.  Blues and Silver went right to the lead and slowed the pace down comfortably.  As they hit the far turn and the other riders began to ask their horses for run to close the gap Blues and Silver hit another gear and was quickly long gone.  I'd doubled the bet for my second winner!  YAY ME!  

When I was handicapping the races and turned the virtual page to the 7th I remarked in my analysis, "....what is this, Kirk Ziadie day?...."  The angles, by the Gulfstream 40% Club sheet were enough to make him a solid play.  Running for a $10K tag (a whopping 63% angle); in a dirt sprint (41% win); and coming off a long layoff (again a HUGE 63% win angle).  So I was planning to at least double the bet.  But as I looked through the field he not only was far and away the best, but the competition was probably the weakest of any of my GP Handicapper plays today.  So, in spite of this being a low-level claiming event, he was my "BET of the Day."  

I've often said throughout my handicapping adventures that one of the great things about thoroughbred racing is that you can find a good bet, a "BEST" of the day on any day of the week, at any racing level.  They pay the same for a bottom-level claimer as they do for a Grade 1 Breeders' Cup championship race.  But, this story had more to it.  And keep in mind how the opening bet of the day had gone when Exclusive Force had disappointed under nearly identical circumstances.  Rough'n Royal shot right out of the gate - and immediately I was excited because instead of being odds-on, which I thought under the circumstances she deserved to be, somehow the crowd had let him go off at better than 5/2!  He was on the lead and had the rail.  But before the first quarter mile a 40-1 longshot came up to challenge him.  As they dueled through the opening quarter I thought, "don't let this guy soften you up, put him away."  But as they began to approach the far turn the rider decided he'd be better off to let the longshot go on with it and try to move off the rail.  As they ran through the turn however Rough'n Royal was not ready to pounce, he was fading.  The disappointment would have been so obvious on my face if you had been watching me.  But as heads turned for home he seemed to find another gear....but so had the longshot leader.  At the furlong marker though you could see I was making progress and just might collar the leader.  Then, here came a late runner right up to my neck!  But inside the final 16th the "Ziadie-angles" kicked in and he cleared the field to score under wraps!  The payoffs were enough that I nearly collected $75 on my "BEST of the Day!"  WHOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!  I am guaranteed to end the week a winner!  

I had two more GP Handicapper 40% Club plays, but missed with both. The first of them was a Pletcher turf runner.  I know he's not at his best in turf routes, and Patrice Merion was dropping into 2-lifetime company.  But as I noted, you are either in on Pletcher or you are trying to beat him.  You just can't guess when he is going to win and when he isn't.  Right there turning for home, no late punch - 4th.  In the 9th it was another Pletcher runner.  I really thought this could be "one of those" where he wins at a price....not just because of all the GP Handicapper angles, but because top jockey Joel Rosario was riding.  Rosario had moved his tack to Gulfstream this winter (instead where he dominates in Southern California) in search of a Derby horse.  Who has all the Derby horses?  Pletcher!  So today was his first mount for Pletcher, and I just knew that he'd ride the hair off the horse.  Early on he was not with the leaders and faded badly at a huge 6/1.  Oh well, I'm a winner at Gulfstream to close the week!  

But wait......I had one more play.  The feature at Santa Anita today was the Grade 2 Monrovia Stakes.  And it had two things about the race that I just loved.  First, it was a turf sprint down the hillside, and I LOVE to handicap those races.  More importantly the likely favorite was Mizdirection.  If you follow my adventures that name should ring a bell - she was my top pick against the boys last out.....in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, and I'd tripled the bet!  She had rallied down the middle of the track to score, paying a whopping $15.80 and I collected over $100.  With that win she ran her record down the hillside to a perfect 3-for-3.  She seemed a slam dunk in here.  And then I analyzed the race.  It was a small field and there was one and only one front-runner.  The dilemma was what should rider Mike Smith do?  Mizdirection had won on the lead/pressing the lead, but by far her best performances were closing into a hot pace.  The field broke from the gate and immediately none of the other riders went up to challenge the front runner.  You could almost see Mike Smith making the calculations and nearing the half-mile marker he moved up to be within a length of the loose-on-the-lead runner.  The question was, did she have her same closing punch?  As they crossed the dirt track and everyone accelerated it was the front-runner that seemed to have the best closing punch.  But then Smith went to work on her and she began to respond, but as they moved inside the final furlong she still had a lot of work to do, especially at the rate she was moving.  But suddenly at the 16th pole she seemed to acknowledge that the time had come to get the job done!  She found not just another gear, but a turbo gear and she just exploded to get up JUST in time.  YEEEESSSSSS!  I had tripled the bet, so I collected nearly another $30 to finish the day a fabulous 4-for-8 and with a profit of nearly $50!  

So I'd bookended the week - started off on New Year's Day with a 5-for-7 performance and closed the week with a 4-for-8 performance.....both with solid profits on the day!  We're back at the races Wednesday, and I think I'll head out to be there as I've not been at Gulfstream since December 29th.

Saturday January 6

And That's Racing....sigh.....

After struggling through Thursday and Friday's races I was ready to cash some tickets on Saturday, and tripled the investment in the 2nd when Quiz Whiz was sent out by trainer Jamie Ness.  According to the Gulfstream Park Handicapper he was a 57% winner first off the Gulfstream claim and a 40% winner with runners in for less than a $40K tag, as well as a 40% winner with horses owned by Midwest Thoroughbreds.  Somehow he was allowed to leave the gate at 9/2.  Through the turn he was full of run and I was very excited because I just KNEW he was going to blow by them. Sure enough he blew by and was clear in the lane.  He shifted out a couple of paths at the 1/8th pole, but he was already clear of the others and won going away.  I had already begun calculating my winnings when it was announced there was an objection and a steward's inquiry.....really?

I was watching the races on HRTV and BOTH commentators watched the replay and said that they were fairly certain there would be no change in the order.  He had shifted out, but he was already clear and even if there was a little interference it certainly would not have affected the outcome of the race.  Then the one analyst noted that her only concern was that a week ago in a similar situation where they had been certain the stewards would not make a change, they had.  That was my first red flag.....sure enough, the number was taken down.  Certainly, that is racing - it's part of the risk you take, but boy that one hurt.  A win there at odds of 4.5-1 would have meant I collected over $80 and would have been a guaranteed winner for the day.  Instead I'm down $15 - that's a swing of nearly $100, and no matter how good you are, that's hard to recover from.  Especially so when I'm struggling to cash this week.  

In the very next play I was coming up the rail with what I thought was a winning move - at 4/1 with a double investment - when I was checked by the favorite.  Would have been ok had the favorite won and I finished second, but no, he faded to 2nd and I was third.  The DQ of the favorite to move me to second was little consolation.  Now I SHOULD have been 2-for-2 and collected almost $150.....instead I'm 0-for-2 and lost $25 :(  

My racing "luck" continued when after finishing well beaten with a longshot I tabbed a Todd Pletcher debut runner with a triple investment.  Again I was fortunate that the crowd let him go off at a HUGE 9/2.  He stalked the longshot leader through the turn, swung outside of him and swooped up.  As he drew on even turns the leader had something left.  No problem, because I KNEW the Pletcher runner would go on with it.  But they dueled to the final 100 yards and I couldn't get by.  WOW.....another possible $80 down the drain as I was a good bet-no cash second.  The day continued in this manner in my next selection which was my "BET of the DAY."  Turf runner Hyper was sent out by owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, and had just been moved into the Chad Brown barn.  First of all, Hyper OWNS this course with a turf record locally of a perfect 4-for-4; and he loves this distance (10/5-3-0).  According to the Gulfstream Handicapper Chad Brown was 43% with runners first off a layoff, another 43% with Jose Lezcano riding, and 43% for the Ramseys.  As the race unfolded Lezcano took Hyper to the back, and it was my recollection he was more of a stalker, but these guys know what they are doing.....or so I thought.  Too far back, rallied too little, too late.  The opprotunity for another $70 lost as Hyper was third.  Sigh....... 

I did have a "Best of the Day" investment on the first of the graded stakes on the road to the Kentucky Derby from Santa Anita.  I thought that Goldencents was the best of the field in the Grade 3 Sham.  My only concern was that he apparently wants the lead and there was other speed in here, most especially a Bob Baffert-trained runner.  And I knew Baffert was not going to let Goldencents steal it.  But, I'd seen an interview with the connections of Goldencents and they were VERY high on him as a Kentucky Derby contender.  So if he was anywhere near as good as they thought, he should be able to stalk and finish.  And that is exactly how it played out.  As they turned for home, for about a 16th of a mile I wondered if Goldencents would go by, but then he found another gear and was easily best.  Finally, a cashed ticket!  

In the online newsletter, "The Handicapper's Edge," one of their writers had his year-end "awards."  Two of them were so me.....His "horse I missed all year" was Little Mike -and if you read his article below, that was my year with Little Mike, except that in every instance where Little Mike lost, I had bet him that day.  Little Mike's year-end win in the Breeders' Cup turf I even wrote in my analysis that he was certain to win at a big price because I was NOT betting him.....sigh.....and the story on Black Caviar was one of my highlight races of 2012.  

 

 For the day I had only the lone win on Goldencents, but I could only thing of the "what-if" scenarios had the three Gulfstream selections won as they "shoulld" have - missed opportunities totaling nearly $300.  But hey, "that's racing."

Up and Down.....Winning and Losing

January 4

After the glorious results of New Year's Day when I cashed on five of seven with a profit of $75, I had Wednesday off from the races - which worked out well because it was Kim and my 26th wedding anniversary.  We went out to PF Chang's with Brad and celebrated our 9,490th day of marriage together :)  Kim was the one who added them up - not me!  I had high expectations to continue the winning on Thursday when racing resumed........ 

But such was not to be the case as AGAIN I was shut out - 0-for-7 including two seconds, one at 7/1 that would have made the day.  So, with that day out of the way I felt pretty sure I'd have a winning day to "even" out the results.  I won the first two races - but didn't have a bet on either one.  I knew what this probably meant - no wins with money on the line - and sure enough I went through five more races without cashing a ticket.  WOW..... finally it was time for my sixth and final race of the day, but it was my "BEST" of the day.  

Right One had graded stakes wins on his resume, but had struggled in finding the winner's circle throughout 2012.  After his last start he was moved to the Todd Pletcher barn.  And there's one thing I have noticed consistently as a pretty strong angle with Pletcher runners.  When a horse makes it's first start for his barn they are typically ready to run lights out.  And that figures.....if you had a client hand over the care of his multi-million dollar assets, wouldn't you want to demonstrate immediately that you knew what you were doing and that they had made a wise decision?  Sure enough, Right One was ready to run a big race.  He sat off the pace to the far turn, accelerated to run by the leaders and then once clear opened up on the field.  A deep closer was getting to him as the wire neared but it was too little, too late.  Tomorrow is Marshua's River Stakes Day, but I'll be home because our daughter Julie is visiting for the weekend :)