Thursday February 7

Two - for - Six:  A "Workman-Like" Day

It wasn't anything spectacular, but it was another day of grinding out winners today.  In the opener I had the 4/5 favorite and he was well back as they hit the far turn.  Figured he would accelerate to run down the top four, all longshots......nope, never fired.  My next selection was a double investment in a bottom-level claiming event.  The field was a woeful 1-for-26 at Gulfstream, so the fact that #7-Starship Valor had a local record of 9/2-1-3, including a very emphatic score at this level and distance last time out as the 4/5 favorite made him stick out like a sore thumb.  I wasn't a fan that he'd been taken AWAY from trainer Jamie Ness, but his new trainer Michael Pino was a solid 27% first off the claim.  It was also encouraging that jockey Javier Castellano did not jump ship and was riding back today.  Starship Valor stalked the leaders early and drew off as he pleased under a confident hand ride through the lane!  

In the 6th I doubled the investment, as is my practice, on the Todd Pletcher runner.  Didn't figure to be the favorite, but you can't guess with Pletcher runners.  An even 6th at 9/2.  Missed again in the 7th when Gunman failed to run his race on the turf at 3/1.  I won the 9th, the "feature" on the day in a non-winners of 3 other-than optional allowance spot.  It was a mile on the turf and #4-Pianist was being sent out by top young trainer Chad Brown.  She had as good a turf record as anyone, but she was a perfect 3-for-3 at the one mile distance.  In retrospect I should have invested more here and less in a couple other spots.  When they turned for home she accelerated and was easily best.  

In the finale I had another Todd Pletcher price horse.  I thought Jakesam would sit just off the pace behind some longshot (s) and if he'd run like a Pletcher runner could pounce and score the upset.  Everything went according to plan, and at 7/1 he made his move into the lane.....only to be swallowed up by the top choices who were hitting their best stride.  So, for the day I was 2-for-6, a solid 33%.  I have a "Prime Time" pick tomorrow and then Saturday is one of the biggest days of the winter, Donn Handicap Day!
 

Wednesday February 6

A Day At The Track With My Mom

Today I took my Mom out to the races for the day.  My "BEST" of the day was my first investment race, the third race.  It was an interesting sprint for older runners and it featured five very salty veterans, most stakes winners, but with all the logical runners coming off a long break.  I went with Todd Pletcher's exciting Discreet Dancer.  Last December he had run on Opening Day and set a track record for 5 1/2 furlongs.  His next start was a one-turn mile and he drew off with ease.  So he became a "buzz horse" on the early Derby trail.  His third career start was against the early Kentucky Derby favorite - and future Grade 1 Belmont winner - Union Rags in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  He set the pace to the turn and then weakened when Union Rags ran one of his best career races.  That February afternoon was the last time Discreet Dancer had been to the track.  But, Pletcher is a master with runners off the layoff, and generally anything he sends out at Gulfstream.  The crowd bet him way down to 3/5 - disappointed with the other stakes runners in the field I didn't get a better price.  And as they came through the stretch it was a stirring duel...... 

Discreet Dancer Returns To Action

  

As I watched along the rail near the finish I was pretty sure he'd won, but still it was a photo finish.  My Mom had bet Discreet Dancer to win and the runner-up, Candyman E, to place.  So we both cashed!  The rest of the day I really didn't ever threaten, but as I told my Mom I was satisfied to have scored with my "BEST."  The other event that took up alot of my afternoon, and gave me great satisfaction was I met with Carlos from the ticket office and got all of our Florida Derby tickets.  I returned seven that I had originally had in Section 101, where we usually sit and put together a block of 16 in the box seats.......Here are our seats:  

Check out the view of the finish line...... 

Pretty cool, eh?  Exciting stuff, only about six weeks away!

February 2013 - Week 1 Video Highlights

Wed Jan 30 - Sun Feb 3

ANOTHER Winning Day!

Sunday February 3

What a G - R - E - A - T Week!

Well, my Mom's good luck vibe continued to do it's thing today, and in a surprising way.  As I looked over my selections when I printed in the morning I thought that I'd have a hard time having a big day with all minimum bets, except in the opener where I tripled the investment on what figured to be a low-odds favorite.  But, as is so often the case in racing, nothing was as it seemed!  In the opener Starship Titan - a Kirk Ziadie 40% Club selection - was allowed to go off at a healthy 2/1.....but he was only second best.  Hard to recover from that with a string of minimum bets.  My first winner came, and I K-N-E-W this would happen because it is just what DOES happen in handicapping so often (I should have known better), in the second where the pick was another Kirk Ziadie 40% Club runner, Southern Dunn.  As I wrote the analysis on Saturday I stated that I didn't have nearly as much confidence in this one as in the opener, but it should be an all-Ziadie double.  As I listed my wager at 1/3 that of the first I KNEW that the first one would disappoint at short odds and the second one would win at short odds.....and I'd be 50% but behind in the betting.  Could not have been more prophetic as Southern Dunn just walked home as tons the best......wow.  

In the 4th my selection was 7/1 and a non-threatening fourth.  But the "score of the day" came in the 5th.  And what was ironic was that throughout the race I didn't know it was the "score of the day."  As you can see in all the photos, see above as an example, the odds of the top four runners are constantly displayed through the running of the race.  But when the HRTV telecast of the 5th was running the little chicklets were nowhere to be found.  Playing a Joke, the #3 horse, stalked the leaders, took the lead into the stretch and scored handily.  I looked at my sheet and he was 6/1 on the program, so I was hoping maybe he went off at 3/1, or even 7/2......nope, paid $15.40 on his 6/1 post-time odds.  That netted me a return of nearly $40 and guaranteed another winning day!  My Mom's good luck charm continues to work it's magic!  

In the 8th I truly believe I had the best horse and it WOULD have been a big score again, but the racing luck needed in a full-field of turf runners wasn't in my corner.  My pick was Medea who was a Euro import who really had not shown a lot overseas, but I reasoned that the mediocre runners there would beat good runners here - as is so often the case.  She lagged far, far back entering the backstretch, but the pace was swift and as they neared the far turn she was rallying strongly on the inside.  But then traffic trouble caused her to slow, then come to a near stop as she was checked sharply while the 11-1 leader opened up.  Medea was forced about six wide to find clear running room into the stretch and cut the lead from double digits to less than two on the wire......sigh...... A nowhere-to-be-found 8th in the final Gulfstream play of the day as the 2/1 favorite, ended the day in Hallandale, but I had one race left to watch.....my BET OF THE DAY!  

The horse I really believe should have won the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall, Game On Dude was running in the Grade 2 San Antonio as a final prep race before "The Big Cap" - the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap - in about a month.  It was a short field, reduced to four runners with a race-day scratch, and he looked long gone as the speed of the race.  But when Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was interviewed in the paddock prior to the race and asked about concerns he noted that 'Dude was doing well, but in a short field like this you worried about a pace scenario where a longshot would force you to run too fast, too early; and that he had instructed jockey Mike Smith that if 'Dude broke slowly to let him sit off the longshot because he was clearly the fastest and best in the race.  Well, Game on Dude broke sharply and went right to the front.  But a 20-1 longshot was having no part of him being loose on the lead and they battled through the first turn.  As they turned down the backstretch the opening fraction was a sharp :23 and change.....a bit fast for nine furlongs.  They continued to duel for another quarter mile in a wicked :46 and change.  I even noted the longshot jockey seemed to be talking to Smith - probably saying "you're not stealing this one my friend!"  But as they hit the far turn and one of the closers began to make his run, Smith shook the reins and the Dude was L - O - N - G gone under a hand ride!  Only paid $2.10, but as I've often said, as much as I'd like to make a lot of money it is more about being right and putting my money where my mouth is!  

 The win by 'Dude capped a remarkable week that saw me have FOUR consecutive winning days on the week (all coinciding with my Mom's visit) and a clear profit on all four days.....the best streak of the winter!  Tomorrow I'll be putting together the weekly highlight video and begin to look forward to Donn Handicap Day next Saturday where there is a great card featuring four stakes races!

SIX WINS TODAY!

February 2

With "the kids" (Julie, Brad & Lauren) visiting for the weekend, with my Mom here, and big plans for the day --> dinner at Joe's Crab Shack and then 8:00 pm "Wicked" performance - I was very selective in my picks for the day.  And I was rewarded with wins in nearly every one of them.  Of course, there weren't any big prices either, but I scored a solid profit for the day.  Ironically of the four losses on the day, THREE of them as the runner-up, my first two races were misses.  My first selection was in the opener at Gulfstream.  I refuse to pass by on any Todd Pletcher runner, and even though, as I wrote in my analysis, "...is not the most likely winner...." I doubled the investment.  Silista was 4/1 on the turf and was a good fourth.  But I KNEW I'd win in the next pick, one of only three non-Gulfstream picks.  Nicole H is one of the best filly-mare sprinters in New York, and a perfect 5-for-5 over the Aqueduct inner track.  She was the 2/5 pick in the Correction Stakes.  She came to the second choice as they spun out of the turn, poked a nose in front, but could not hold off the determined winner.  

I had co-"best" bets at Gulfstream, and the first was in the co-feature, the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes.  The crowd settled on Great Attack as the favorite.  I figured as much - he was a Grade 3 winner and had run very competitively in the last two Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprints.  But that's the problem with him - he is always well bet, always runs competitively, and typically doesn't get there in time.  Case in point back-to-back runner-up finishes in this very race over the last two years.  I went instead with Varsity.  He was the clear speed-of-the-speed, and had the rail.  Joe Bravo was interviewed on camera and stated the obvious....."What strategy - he has one way to run, right to the front and run fast!"  And that is exactly what he did.  He set sizzling fractions and when the field started to come to him at the top of the lane he accelerated away for a convincing win.  WHOOO HOOOO!  

I came right back to score in the very next race at Gulfstream, and it was my other co-"best" with a triple investment.  #7-Crown Polis had been entered in a race Thursday where there were two Gulfstream Park 40% Club choices to pick from, and I'd said at the time that I thought he had "issues" with winning - in relation to the rest of the field.  But he scratched out of that spot to run today.  I thought he towered over this field.  I tripled the investment!  He, like Varsity, went right to the front and drew off with authority!  Another big time winner and now I am in the black for the day!  

I scored my third in a row in the very next race, the fifth at Gulfstream.  My comment on him proved also to be prophetic, ".....ran away from his rivals in his career debut on New Year's Day, that he might be something special....."  They were going a mile today and he was dueling on the lead as they hit the far turn.  Announcer Larry Colmus called out the half mile split in :45 and change.  I told my Mom as she watched the race with me on HRTV that those splits were too fast unless he was something really special.  Indeed he was as he drew off to win by 163/4 widening lengths!  I commented "WOW, that was ultra impressive!"  HRTV analyst Jeff Siegel was beside himself and said that no matter what the three-year-olds did today at Gulfstream, THIS was a Derby horse to reckon with.  The headlines on all the online sources I follow said the same.  I was really, REALLY impressed.  He may be "the chosen one" if the Florida Derby is on his radar!  

The next race on my schedule was the second of three off-track selections.  I had told the story of the highly talented Bind in an earlier journal.  Debuted as a sensational 3-year-old, had issues, but had come back a month ago to romp in a Fair Grounds nw1x sprint.  He took the next step today in a nw2x sprint.  Though the margin was not dominant, it was interesting that the horse that dogged him to the wire was last year's 99-1 winner of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, obviously a horse of some quality.  The two selections I had at the Fair Grounds, this one and one later, were both co-"best" as well at triple the money on the table.  Bind was my fourth winner on the day :)  

My continued good fortune with Mr. Todd Pletcher, a charter member (if not the founder!) of the Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club, in the 8th.  Dougherty represented a rare instance in the "Pletcher files."  He did NOT win his 3-year-old debut here when unveiled earlier in the meet!  But he looked much the best to me.  In fact the statistics from the GP Handicapper book point out Pletcher is even stronger with his second time starters at the meet than with his debut runners.  He pressed the pace and as they spun out of the turn I thought to myself, "if he's as good as I think, he'll open up here." And he did.  ROMPED home for my FIFTH winner on the day!  

Most unusual, I lost with a Todd Pletcher runner when Forty Tales was a late-running 2nd in the Grade 2 Hutcheson, and then lost with another Pletcher sophomore in a maiden special.  Oistin's Town set the pace to deep stretch at 4/1 - oh that would have been nice!  My last selection on the day was not on my original schedule.  But as I watched HRTV they were talking about the long-awaited return to the races of last year's Fair Grounds Oaks and Kentucky Oaks winner, Believe You Can.  We had been on track that Friday in Louisville when she'd won for jockey Rosie Napravnik and trainer Larry Jones........ 

And I thought she was a logical winner.  But when I read the online analysis of Katie Mikolay that she'd had several sensational workouts, I knew it would be easy pickin' today.  She was a miserly 1-5, but she rolled home in dominant fashion!  I had joked with my Mom after yesterday's sensational handicapping results that I had had my best two days of handicapping at Gulfstream since she had arrived Thursday.  And I said if I had another good day today (Saturday) that she would be required to move to Ft. Lauderdale as my permanent "good luck charm."  I guess I'll call the moving van!  Since my Mom arrived:

Thursday:  6 selections - 3 wins (50%) - PROFIT

Friday:  6 selections - 4 wins (67%) - PROFIT

Saturday:  10 selections - 6 wins (60%) - PROFIT

TOTAL:  22 selections - 13 wins (59%) - PROFIT

PHOTO FINISH! - A Great Start to the new month

February 1

I WIN 4-out-of-6 with THREE Photo Finishes

What a great way to start the new month!  I got started right away with a double investment on a Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club play in Won Kool Kid who was trained by Jamie Ness for Midwest Thoroughbreds.  He's a Club Member with horses racing for a tag less than $40K, 47% wins, and this guy fit the profile to a "T."  He tracked the even money favorite from the beginning, moved even with him at the top of the lane and could not get by, but in the final jumps it was his nose that was first on the line, and after a close finish, I was a winner.  As soon as Won Kool Kid was named the unofficial winner the "INQUIRY" sign went up.....the runner-up had bore out through the stretch so even if I had not crossed the wire first, I would have won the race!  Got back $25 to start the month...WHOOO HOOOO!  

In my next betting race I picked Sinister Tale who was making his first start for a claiming tag today.  She had three wins and had been stakes-placed.  In her latest she ran poorly, but I was willing to give her a pass coming off a 4 1/2 month break, and with the class drop today.  Again, my pick was rallying on the outside, but could not get by....but on the wire in a tight photo, it was my number (#5 again) that was declared the winner!  

I was third in a very competitive turf allowance race, but in the sixth I had another GP 40% Club selection.  Harborinthetempest was being sent out by Todd Pletcher.  And though this was a rare venture into the claiming ranks, this filly not only rated the top nod based on all the 40%+ angles, but her rivals were not much to write home about.  She stalked the pace to the turn, opened up under a hand ride and was LONG GONE!  No photo this time!  And I added another $20 to my bankroll.  YAY ME!  

In the 7th and 8th my selections were both scratched, and both were added money selections - in fact the 7th was my "best" of the day, yet another Pletcher sophomore.  Disappointed, but I moved on to the 9th where I was awarded 2nd after finishing third in a turf sprint at 2/1 when the unofficial winner bore out through the lane.  It didn't interfere with my horse, but I was blocked from midway on the turn to the final 16th.  In the last race of the day it was a mirror image of the 6th.  A Todd Pletcher runner, dropped into a low claiming spot.  But Anychanceatadance appeared to not only have all the 40% Club angles in her favor, but the field was woefully weak.  Only the #4 runner appeared to have enough speed to challenge.  And that's what happened as they dueled well clear of the field through the far turn.  It looked like Anychanceatadance was ready to pull away as they turned for the wire, but the second choice would not go away.....PHOTO FINISH, AGAIN!  And again I was on the outside and again I was the winner!  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOO!  What a great day!  I won with four of six, and had a profit of over $30!

 

A BIG Finish To January!

January 31

What a G - R - E - A - T way to finish off the month!  It was somewhat of a surprise, and I'd even thought about this prior to the racing, because there were no "big" investments - no "prime time" selections - no "Bet of the Day" selections.  And my thought was that last winter one of my best days was Holy Bull Stakes Day when I didn't have a single bet over $10.  And so it was today.......In my first selection I had doubled the bet on Glamour Puss.  She had missed in a photo finish in her debut, then won convincingly.  In her first start against winners she was second behind a repeat winner but six clear of the show horse.  The crowd saw what I did and made her the even money favorite.  She pressed the pace and took over turning for home, but could not hold off the late running price horse - 2nd.  I passed the 3rd and 4th.  In the fifth I put Brilliant Katie on top.  When I was teaching at Cypress Bay, one of my very favorite students of my entire career was Katie Bonilla.  So, anytime I see the name "Katie" she is the first thing that comes to mind.  I'd never pick the filly here because her name was Katie, but I have to admit that her name jumped off the page at first glance because of it.....

As I looked over the race the most prominent thing that stood out to me was that there was a lot of speed in here and that the likely winner would come from off the pace.  Brilliant Katie had just this running style!  As I watched the race on HRTV the two analysts gave her brief consideration, but both picked other horses....and even named three or four other contenders for multi-race tickets that did NOT include her.  But as they turned for home 'Katie was in perfect position, and she drew off with authority at a nice 3/1 price.  The two "national" analysts had missed, but I had scored!  Whoooo Hoooo.....thanks Katie!  

That gave me a slight profit for the day after two races, but nothing to write home about.  In the 7th I missed at 9/2 when 4th in a marathon turf event.  That brought me to the 6th where I had been faced with a bit of a dilemma.  I've used the Gulfstream Handicapper throughout the meeting to help point out winners, and two of the most successful angles have been when a horse trained by Kirk Ziadie runs for a claiming tag of less than $40K - that's a 63% winning angle, and the other is when trainer Jamie Ness sends out a runner for less than $40K - a 47% winning angle.  So in the 7th, a $20K claiming event, they BOTH had a runner entered, in fact Ziadie had TWO entered!  Uh oh..... 

As you can see in my analysis I did NOT go with the big 67% angle on Ziadie.  Author Jim Mazur has often said about using his handicapping books, you should use the numbers in conjunction with your own handicapping skills - not use them blindly.  Such was the case here because both of Ziadie's horses looked to have had trouble finding the winner's circle, even when they seemed clearly best.  As I expected, my pick Kaleidosound was not the favorite.  And when the gate sprung open she was left behind the field....oh no!  Even worse, jockey Javier Castellano rushed her up the rail and blew by the field to take the lead heading into the turn.  I can't tell you how many times I've seen this happen, and it is nearly always the same result - the jockey (usually an inexperienced one) has burned up all the horse's energy recovering from the poor break and as they turn for home it is a gradual fade.  But this is why Javier Castellano is an excellent jockey.  He knew he had the best horse!  As they hit the turn and then headed for home, instead of fading Kaleidosound opened up and romped home by daylight!  My double investment brought me over $30 - unheard of with a Jamie Ness-trained runner!  YAY!  

And then it was the "Race of the Day" - though I didn't know it at the time :)  I think one of the toughest races to handicap are turf sprints.  With the short distance, usually five or five and one-half furlongs; the quick run to the turn; and then the pace dynamics, the result is so often determined by how a horse breaks and the luck of the trip.  So handicapping the best horse is NOT always what points out the winner.  Such was the case in the ninth where 3-year-old fillies were going 5 panels on the turf.  I even wrote to open my analysis of the race, " ....Races don't come much more wide-open that this one....lightly raced sophomore fillies, many trying a turf sprint for the first time, and NONE of them with multiple wins over the surface!...."  I picked #11-Sunrise Kitty who was 6/1 in the program and I even noted that because it was such a wide-open event, I wanted a price runner.  What had appealed to me were these facts - she had won her last start, a turf sprint, when breaking from the far outside post.  She'd stalked the pace and drew off with authority.  Top rider Javier Castellano was on board for me again, and trainer Jason Servis showed a 21% winning percentage with turf sprinters.  And my favorite angle with Kitty was that in her last, which was her first turf race, she had shown a huge improvement in her speed figure when switching surfaces.  As they broke from the gate the chicklets along the bottom of the screen showed Sunrise Kitty - who was pressing the pace - had gone off at a juicy 8/1!  She turned for home with a narrow advantage, but here came the favorite.....As they were just yards out it was one head up and one head down......

They hit the wire, PHOTO FINISH!.........if I had been pressed to guess, I would have said I thought I'd won.  But I was far from certain; then the official photo came up...... 

YES!  Sunrise Kitty wins!  And the big $18.20 payoff netted me a return of nearly $50!  I missed in the last race, but it didn't matter.  For the day I had scored on three of six selections, and cashed tickets worth nearly $100!  It was a great finish to the day.  Later in the evening I was able to put together my statistics for the month of January, and I'd racked up another month at a big 30%+ winning percentage!  The only drawback continues to be this winter the fact that my winning horses, unlike Sunrise Kitty, are going off at short-priced odds.  Perhaps Kitty jumps start a big February!