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Wednesday December 12

Today - how about the date?  Over the last twelve years we have gotten to have this kind of dateline once a year....now it won't happen for another 89 years!  Wow - was the first day of the second week of racing and there was an eight race program.  When I handicapped the card yesterday I found five selections in the first six races, so I decided to head on out for the first part of the card.  When I first arrived at Gulfstream I had about a half an hour before the first race so I found the Box Office ticket director and talked about the process to get my 20+ tickets for Florida Derby 2013.  Next week I'll come out here and get my seats / tickets!  Whooo hoooo!  

I checked the scratches and found that my last bet, in the sixth, had scratched.  So I now had only four selections - which actually worked to my favor because my plan was to head to Calder on the way home to pick up their annual calendar (got a coupon in the mail last week).  In all three of the first selections I was right there on the far turn, and in all three I faded to near the back of the pack.  Luckily the biggest bet of the day was in the last of the four race sequence.  I had originally written to invest the minimum, but I'd had in my mind all day it was a double bet.  As I re-read the analysis I'd written I was surprised that I'd made him a minimum bet; I re-examined the race and decided that it was not only worthy of a double bet like I'd thought he was, but well worth the triple investment!  Spielberg was 2-for-3 over the Gulfstream strip and was being sent out by top claiming trainer Peter Walder.  I had a triple investment on him, and when I made the bet he was 9/5.....if he won I'd come out a winner for the day.  But as I waited for the race to start along the rail his odds clicked steadily downward --> 8/5, then 7/5, then 6/5, then all the way to 4/5.....wow.  Fortunately he clicked up one point to go off at even money.  And he ran like an even money favorite, dominating the race.  So even though I was only 1-for-4, I nearly broke even on the day! 

Racing continues tomorrow, my picks are online here:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_thur.pdf 

Let's Kickoff Week 2!

The second week of racing starts tomorrow, Wednesday December 12 and I'm hoping to carry the momentum from a profitable Sunday into the week!  Yesterday's Daily Racing Form posted photos with Beyer figures for the weekend's stakes winners.....including the three that scored as my "BEST" on Saturday and Sunday!  

Wednesday's selections are on my selection page:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html

Week 1:  December 1 - 9

Video Recap

Sunday December 9

End the week in a BIG WAY

Sweep Weekend's Stakes!

After failing to life up to my expectations yesterday I had high hopes that today would bring a winning day - and I wasn't disappointed!  But it didn't start that way! Today's nine race program led me to six selections, and all week long the local weather predictions were for rain over the weekend, so I had alternate selections for the five turf races. However, much like yesterday it was a beautiful sunny day and all the races stayed on the grass.  In the opener I had landed on Underestimate Me who was 8/1 in the program.  He was dropping in for a first-time maiden tag and had last year's top rider, Javier Castellano on board who listed a 37% win rate for this little known trainer.  I was delighted when the post time odds were posted at 9-1 and Castellano had him in striking position entering the far turn.  Underestimate Me came with a big late run and J-U-S-T missed, second - AGAIN!  That would have been a nice score.  In the second trainer Jamie Ness had an entry for Midwest Thoroughbreds; with the race a claiming race for a $17.5 tag this meant it was a double "Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club" race, as Ness hits at 47% with this level of claimers and 39% for this ownership group.  The second half of the entry scratched and Houston Bull was a juicy 5/2 as he led them from the gate and was clear in mid-stretch.  But the odds-on favorite was running late.....and caught him just before the wire.....second again, and again in a photo finish :(   

In the 3rd we were back on the grass and it was another "Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club" play:  Magnificent Seven (5/1) was dropping out of a Saratoga Maiden Special into today's maiden claiming spot - trainer Chad Brown wins over 40% with maiden claimers; today Jose Lezcano was riding - the two of them hook up to win more than 40% of the time!  She left the post at 3/1 and was wide coming out of the turn for home, but rallied strongly...... for yes, you guessed it - 2nd AGAIN.  At least it wasn't a photo and I never really thought she'd win.  I didn't have a play in either the fourth or the fifth, so my next selection was in the 6th.  Back on the inner turf course and this time I had the favorite, Abaco.  

It was a very interesting analysis, and I'm not sure how many handicappers saw what I saw, but it was enough for me to double the wager.  Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey (who I actually walked right past on Saturday!) doesn't win often at Gulfstream, especially early in the meet.  But he'd already scored a couple of winners so far.  Abaco had paired speed figures that would take a career effort from one of her rivals to win today.  But what sealed the deal for me was that prior to her last win, she was coming off an 86 Beyer speed rating victory and McGaughey put her through two works - a four furlong breeze in :50 flat and then a sharp three furlong work in :36.2.  She won her next level allowance and earned an identical 86 Beyer.  Since then she had worked four furlongs in :49 and then a speed sharpener in :36.1.....coincidence?  I think not!  Much like Silver Rock on Saturday, Abaco was W-A-Y back through the far turn.  But as heads turned for home jockey Johnny Velazquez asked for her best and she blew by the field to win going away!  WHOO HOO!  

I passed the 8th (ironically in the three races I'd passed my top pick didn't win the 4th, but the third choice did at a price, and in the 5th and 7th I had the winner listed on top - $3.00 and then $8.80!).  Now it was time for the feature race, the South Beach Stakes.  I thought that this was very similar to yesterday's feature, the favorite just seemed very obvious to me and I thought we'd get an odds-on price again.  The favorite - in the headlines in every racing publication and the local paper, as well as in the program - was Romacaca.  She's a multiple graded stakes winner; and what's more she's a Gulfstream "Horse-for-the-Course" as you can see by her career box; and note how she simply loves this distance!  

The "big question" according to the so-called experts was that there were several front-runners in here, including one very quick filly (Frontside) and with the outside draw Romacaca looked to be up against it to run her race.  But, I've seen her race many times (and cashed several times on her) and you can see in her past performances that she's sat off the pace to win before.  So given her class edge and love for the course and distance I thought she'd sit off the leaders, swoop to the front off the turn and win.  It couldn't have gone any closer to the way I'd forseen the race with one exception........when they left the gate Romacaca was NOT anything close to odds-on -->  9/5 or 2/1?  Would that be too much to hope for....guess again....she was an amazing 3/1!  She stalked the leaders from fourth, about three off the lead, made a move on the turn and then was courageous to hold off the late runners.  And she was even better than 3/1 as she didn't pay just $8, she paid a very, VERY generous $8.40.  I had tripled the bet so I collected well over $60!  AWESOME!  

Even though I missed in the final race I was delighted with the way the day turned out - 33% wins and a profit of $30.  Even better, I swept the weekend stakes races!  Tomorrow I'll make a "Week In Review" video and we'll do this all over again for Week 2 starting Wednesday!

 

Saturday December 8

 Sugar Swirl Day Video Recap

I have to admit that overall, at the end of the day I was disappointed.  I really felt like today was going to be a big day and I'd not only win a lot of races, but that I'd have a healthy profit for the day.  Instead, I won the big races - which left me feeling good about the day on track - but when the counting was done, I'd had way too many "close but no cigar" finishes.  On the day I was first, second, or third in 20 of 33 selections - but only cashed seven tickets.  In the morning I had posted my five best selections on Facebook and I scored with three of them........

Months from now I'll remember this day for the big wins and the close finishes.....not for the near misses and the losses on the day, so let's focus on the great weather, great racing and the highlights from yesterday..... 

I should have known that something was up on the day when my first selection at Gulfstream was a Todd Pletcher Maiden Special 2yo - these are just automatic over the winter.  I had tripled the bet, and apparently the crowd had got the memo because Unitarian was bet down to 3/5.  He ranged up on the turn ready to run by the leaders, and then flattened out......did not even hit the board....Uh oh.  My first win came through solid handicapping in the fourth at Aqueduct.  The race was slated for the turf, but bad weather had forced all races to the main track.  My turf runner scratched so I re-analyzed the remaining runners and landed on a "Main Track Only" runner and doubled the bet......WINNER!  I was third at Tampa at a good 12/1, another good piece of handicapping, just no money to show for it.  In the fifth at Gulfstream I played Joe's Blazing Aaron who was 8/1 in the program and unbeaten over the Hallandale grass.  He looked to be the lone speed and ready to steal it.  He shot to the lead easily from the outside post and when the first two fractions were :25 and change and then a walking :50.4 I knew I was home free.  Apparently none of the other horses got the message.  Joe was run by in deep stretch by not one, not two, but three others.  WOW.  I got back on the board in the 6th at Aqueduct when Mudflats - appropriate for the surface today in New York! - was easily best at even money.  

In the 6th at Tampa, their feature, the Pelican Stakes, I thought it was a good time to take a stand against local horse-for-the-course Action Andy.  He was a multiple stakes winner, but had been all out to win in his last in Maryland, earning a lifetime best speed figure.  I thought he'd regress today so I went with multiple Calder winner Indiano.  Instead, Indiano proved why he's never won on any surface but Calder's and Action Andy demonstrated why he is so fond for the Oldsmar surface - I was second best, again.  

At Gulfstream I had two "top tier" bets - the first was in the sixth with a claiming event on the turf.  I liked Silver Rock.  He went off at 3/2 odds and trailed to the far turn......still trailed at the top of the stretch.....and STILL was last with a furlong to go!  But then Jose Lezcano said "GO" and he blew by them all, scoring under a hand ride in a finish that looked closer than it probably was.  

At the Fair Grounds in New Orleans it was "Louisiana Champions Day" with seven state-bred stakes.  My first added money bet was in the Turf Stakes and I had Sadie's Soldier - came running late - but was run by even later by the favorite, 3rd.  I lost a photo finish in the opener at Hollywood, 2nd, again - wow.  And then it was time for the feature at Aqueduct, the Queens County Stakes.  I thought Todd Pletcher's San Pablo laid over this field.  He swooped to the lead and appeared long gone; the horse he blew by in midstretch re-rallied to make the finish close, but I think if San Pablo's rider had been forced to ask for more it would not have been nearly as close.  I had a big-time, prime investment of $30 and was rewarded for taking the risk with nearly $45 in return.

I was second - AGAIN - at Gulfstream when Scenario Analysis couldn't catch my third choice who paid $11 to win.  Sigh.....I turned the page - literally - on my selection sheet and was certain the best was soon to come.  Next up was my BEST at the Fair Grounds where I thought Sittin At The Bar would run by all her two-year-old filly rivals in the Lassie Stakes.  And I was right on the money!  $20 to win netted nearly $35!  I was surprised in the finale when Late Night Action did NOT win - I was sure it was going to be an all-Pletcher late double - hold that thought for later in the day, should have known......but then it was time for the feature at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl.  This was the first graded stakes of the winter and my BET of the DAY was in this race, #6 Dust and Diamonds.  I had seen her run in her last race - the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.  She had stalked the leaders and opened up at the top of the lane.  Nearly every main-track race was won over that weekend by the horse who was in front at the top of the lane, with one exception - and it came in this race with what most believed was the most impressive performance of the weekend.  The probable Eclipse Award winning Groupie Doll collared Dust and Diamonds literally right in front of me where I stood along the rail, and drew off handily.  Dust and Diamonds was four clear of the show horse.  Immediately after the race she was sent to the Fasig-Tipton sale where she was taken for nearly a million dollars and transferred to top trainer Todd Pletcher.  So today Dust and Diamonds was coming off an impressive runner-up in the Breeders' Cup AND making her first start for Todd Pletcher!  She was deserving of her 1-9 betting status.  After I took a close-up view of her in the paddock I was delighted standing on the rail when she floated to 1-5.  When the tote clicked up another notch to 2-5 I was silently thanking everyone who thought they could beat this champion.  And by the time they hit the far turn somehow the racing gods blessed me by allowing her odds to drift up again to an amazing 1-2.  There was no way she deserved to be above 1-5 on her legitimate chances in this field. She cruised to the lead as heads turned for home and drove home as MUCH the best!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!!!!  I had invested $50 and got back $75 - truly an amazing return considering who she had to beat today!  

That was at 4:30 pm, and that was the end of cashing tickets, with one exception, in spite of my have TWELVE more selections running up to 8 pm tonight.  I was (a) surprised when Todd Pletcher didn't sweep the late double as many thought Patrice Merion was the "best" bet of the day in the finale.  She led the length of the stretch before getting nailed in the final stride on the wire.  I was (b) more surprised when Speedacious did NOT win the Ladies' Sprint at the Fair Grounds; most thought she was the "bet of the day" there - in fact the HRTV announcer had a Pick-5 ticket that was centered around singling her - 9th....wow.  And I was (c) TRULY SURPRISED when Executiveprivilege, a winner of five of six races, including three Grade 1 races, and unbeaten over the Hollywood track did NOT win the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet.  Her upset in the BC Juvenile Fillies had probably cost her an Eclipse award and Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was looking to make his case by winning her 4th Grade 1 of the year, the most by any two-year-old in the country; but after pressing the pace she faded to fourth.  

So, as I said earlier, it was a glorious day weather wise, my horses ran well (though many didn't win) and the racing was exciting with a big crowd on hand.  AND I won with my BET of the Day.  I will hang on to that and hope that the final day of the week brings multiple winners and allows me to make a tidy profit.  Sunday's selections are online here:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_sun.pdf

Friday December 7

Today I only had four selections at Gulfstream and lost all four.  In the opener I was second in a photo finish as the 6/5 favorite.  I was 4th in Race 4 when my pick broke behind the field and couldn't catch the odds-on favorite.  In the fifth I was 5/1 on the grass and right there on the turn.....then faded to 7th.  And in my final bet, the 6th I was the 6/5 favorite with top rider Johnny Velazquez on board for top trainer Graham Motion.  Made a strong middle move and then faded to finish a well-beaten 9th.  

I have to believe that the 0-fer day today simply hints at having a B-I-G day tomorrow when I'll be on track for the first graded stakes of the meet!  

You can find my selections for Saturday here:  

 http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_sat.pdf

And you can find my complete list of selections for Gulfstream and all the simulcast races I'll be playing here:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/dailyselections.pdf

 Thursday December 6

 A Great Story / Another "BET of the Day" WINS!

 This morning as I was handicapping the Saturday card it occurred to me that with it being a great day, weather-wise, and knowing I had selections in the first four races, that today would be a good day to head out for a while.  And so I did.......the story of the first race was SO worth being there to experience it live, and then to see my "BET of the Day" win live capped off a great adventure.  

In the opener I had selected #8 Lord Chelsie.  According to the "Gulfstream Handicapper" his trainer, Edwin Broome was 4-for-104 with all horses EXCEPT those making the turf to dirt move - which Lord Chelsie was doing.  Those won at an amazing 78% clip!  Knowing that the favorite, #6 For All Who Conga, would be odds-on I thought this would be a great chance to make some money!  But, when I looked at the board with 10 minutes to post Conga was indeed the favorite, but a prohibitive 1-9......so much money was bet on him that Lord Chelsie was the third choice at a HUGE 25/1!  I had planned to bet $10, so that means if I was right I'd collect over $250!  I re-examined why I did NOT like the favorite and was convinced I had the right horse.  As I headed to the windows both analysts on the inter-track TV were talking about how hard it would be to beat Conga.  So, I stopped and looked at the board.....IF he did win and I ran a good second, the exacta paid $16.  So, I thought, if I collect $250 I'd never miss the $2 for an exacta; but if I did run second I'd be able to profit.  So I made the bet......$10 to win on #8 Lord Chelsie and a $2 exacta: 6-8.  Now, if you know me and have followed my racing adventures you know I am frequently behind the favorite and NEVER bet anything but to win.......keep that in mind!  

As they hit the far turn two longshots were in front, Lord Chelsie was in the garden spot, clearly third, and two lengths farther back was Conga.  I thought I've got the jump on him and should get a much easier trip to the wire.....and it was just as I'd seen it.  I swooped up three wide and Conga was caught behind horses.  With a 16th to go (and by the way, I'd been bet down to 6/1) I was in front by about a length and a half and the surviving longshot, #4, was in second outside of me and Conga was rallying.  Conga tried to come to me inside the #4, but as he reached even terms with him Conga shifted out a bit and the #4 shifted in noticably causing a bump.  As they neared the wire track announcer called, "Oh For All Who Conga had trouble!'  Conga seemed to drop back and it was a photo between me and the #4, but I knew I'd won.  I wondered if there had been contact between me and Conga because it appeared he MIGHT have gotten squeezed.  As they showed the replay the OBJECTION and INQUIRY sign went up.  Sure enough, Conga had definitely been hit by the #4, but he had come out; and after pinballing off him I had shifted out and he had been bumped again.  I thought it was too close to the wire to matter, but would not have been out of the question that I'd be disqualified.  It would do me no good to be DQ'd because I didn't have a 4-6 exacta....if there was a change it had to involve the #4, not me!  It took forever but then the announcement........"Ladies and gentlemen, there has been a DOUBLE disqualification!"  You have to be kidding me!  But wait......the #6 For All Who Conga was moved to first; the #4 was moved to third, and my horse #8 Lord Chelsie was moved to 2nd.....I HAVE the exacta!  WHEW!!!!!!  It only paid $12.20, but I'd bet $12, so I "WIN!"  WHOOO HOOOO!!!!!  I missed on two minor bets in the second and third - second in a photo in the third.  And then it was time for the fourth race...... 

TODAY'S BET OF THE DAY

 Graydar, #3, was a Todd Pletcher layoff horse and qualified on THREE angles for the "Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club" - he'd broken his maiden here last season in his debut at this distance with a 100 speed figure.  I thought he looked much the best and had originally planned to bet the "typical Todd Pletcher bet" - $10.  But the more I looked at it, he was a standout; so I made him a "BET of the Day" play and doubled the investment to a prime-time $20.  He WALKED with it!  And he was 1/100th of a second off the track record.  Ironically I was here the day Commentator set the track record!

I left having hit on two of four, and made my last two bets before driving home.  I watched the replays about an hour after getting home and in the 7th I cruised to the lead at 7/1 (with a double investment) and looked home free - I was counting the big $80 payoff, but when the closers came and my jockey asked for a finishing kick I had nothing.....3rd.  Then in the final race #11 Don'twait Toolong was flying on the outside and was certain to inhale the leader, but then seemed to lose action while running for about four strides, then regained his momentum.....PHOTO FINISH!  

Arrrrrggggghhhhh!  Second.....wow, that would have made for a profitable day!  Still, it was a fun day at the races - a great adventure, a great story, and a "BET of the Day" win!  Tomorrow's picks are posted on my selection page:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html