Friday December 7

Today I only had four selections at Gulfstream and lost all four.  In the opener I was second in a photo finish as the 6/5 favorite.  I was 4th in Race 4 when my pick broke behind the field and couldn't catch the odds-on favorite.  In the fifth I was 5/1 on the grass and right there on the turn.....then faded to 7th.  And in my final bet, the 6th I was the 6/5 favorite with top rider Johnny Velazquez on board for top trainer Graham Motion.  Made a strong middle move and then faded to finish a well-beaten 9th.  

I have to believe that the 0-fer day today simply hints at having a B-I-G day tomorrow when I'll be on track for the first graded stakes of the meet!  

You can find my selections for Saturday here:  

 http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp_sat.pdf

And you can find my complete list of selections for Gulfstream and all the simulcast races I'll be playing here:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/dailyselections.pdf

 Thursday December 6

 A Great Story / Another "BET of the Day" WINS!

 This morning as I was handicapping the Saturday card it occurred to me that with it being a great day, weather-wise, and knowing I had selections in the first four races, that today would be a good day to head out for a while.  And so I did.......the story of the first race was SO worth being there to experience it live, and then to see my "BET of the Day" win live capped off a great adventure.  

In the opener I had selected #8 Lord Chelsie.  According to the "Gulfstream Handicapper" his trainer, Edwin Broome was 4-for-104 with all horses EXCEPT those making the turf to dirt move - which Lord Chelsie was doing.  Those won at an amazing 78% clip!  Knowing that the favorite, #6 For All Who Conga, would be odds-on I thought this would be a great chance to make some money!  But, when I looked at the board with 10 minutes to post Conga was indeed the favorite, but a prohibitive 1-9......so much money was bet on him that Lord Chelsie was the third choice at a HUGE 25/1!  I had planned to bet $10, so that means if I was right I'd collect over $250!  I re-examined why I did NOT like the favorite and was convinced I had the right horse.  As I headed to the windows both analysts on the inter-track TV were talking about how hard it would be to beat Conga.  So, I stopped and looked at the board.....IF he did win and I ran a good second, the exacta paid $16.  So, I thought, if I collect $250 I'd never miss the $2 for an exacta; but if I did run second I'd be able to profit.  So I made the bet......$10 to win on #8 Lord Chelsie and a $2 exacta: 6-8.  Now, if you know me and have followed my racing adventures you know I am frequently behind the favorite and NEVER bet anything but to win.......keep that in mind!  

As they hit the far turn two longshots were in front, Lord Chelsie was in the garden spot, clearly third, and two lengths farther back was Conga.  I thought I've got the jump on him and should get a much easier trip to the wire.....and it was just as I'd seen it.  I swooped up three wide and Conga was caught behind horses.  With a 16th to go (and by the way, I'd been bet down to 6/1) I was in front by about a length and a half and the surviving longshot, #4, was in second outside of me and Conga was rallying.  Conga tried to come to me inside the #4, but as he reached even terms with him Conga shifted out a bit and the #4 shifted in noticably causing a bump.  As they neared the wire track announcer called, "Oh For All Who Conga had trouble!'  Conga seemed to drop back and it was a photo between me and the #4, but I knew I'd won.  I wondered if there had been contact between me and Conga because it appeared he MIGHT have gotten squeezed.  As they showed the replay the OBJECTION and INQUIRY sign went up.  Sure enough, Conga had definitely been hit by the #4, but he had come out; and after pinballing off him I had shifted out and he had been bumped again.  I thought it was too close to the wire to matter, but would not have been out of the question that I'd be disqualified.  It would do me no good to be DQ'd because I didn't have a 4-6 exacta....if there was a change it had to involve the #4, not me!  It took forever but then the announcement........"Ladies and gentlemen, there has been a DOUBLE disqualification!"  You have to be kidding me!  But wait......the #6 For All Who Conga was moved to first; the #4 was moved to third, and my horse #8 Lord Chelsie was moved to 2nd.....I HAVE the exacta!  WHEW!!!!!!  It only paid $12.20, but I'd bet $12, so I "WIN!"  WHOOO HOOOO!!!!!  I missed on two minor bets in the second and third - second in a photo in the third.  And then it was time for the fourth race...... 

TODAY'S BET OF THE DAY

 Graydar, #3, was a Todd Pletcher layoff horse and qualified on THREE angles for the "Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club" - he'd broken his maiden here last season in his debut at this distance with a 100 speed figure.  I thought he looked much the best and had originally planned to bet the "typical Todd Pletcher bet" - $10.  But the more I looked at it, he was a standout; so I made him a "BET of the Day" play and doubled the investment to a prime-time $20.  He WALKED with it!  And he was 1/100th of a second off the track record.  Ironically I was here the day Commentator set the track record!

I left having hit on two of four, and made my last two bets before driving home.  I watched the replays about an hour after getting home and in the 7th I cruised to the lead at 7/1 (with a double investment) and looked home free - I was counting the big $80 payoff, but when the closers came and my jockey asked for a finishing kick I had nothing.....3rd.  Then in the final race #11 Don'twait Toolong was flying on the outside and was certain to inhale the leader, but then seemed to lose action while running for about four strides, then regained his momentum.....PHOTO FINISH!  

Arrrrrggggghhhhh!  Second.....wow, that would have made for a profitable day!  Still, it was a fun day at the races - a great adventure, a great story, and a "BET of the Day" win!  Tomorrow's picks are posted on my selection page:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html

A GREAT Way To Start The Week!

Wednesday December 5

As the racing week began I had five selections on the eight race card, and all five were directly due to the information found in the "Gulfstream Handicapper" I had mentioned in my earlier entry.  I had spent the morning handicapping for the remainder of the week, and then meeting with my financial advisor.  I was done with all my "chores" at about 12:30, just in time to start watching the live telecast on HRTV on the big screen....... 

In the opener I passed the race, and it was a good thing as my top selection ran fifth of five.  So often I've said that half the secret of handicapping is determining WHEN to make an investment and how much to invest.  This was a solid "win" decision by passing the race.  In the second I liked Diamond Maker who was 8/1 on the morning line.  It was a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play as trainer Patricia Farro wins 40% of the races where she saddles a horse for New Life Stables.  When Diamond Maker left the gate at 30/1 I knew my chances of winning were slim, but she ran a solid fourth at this huge price.  The next investment was in the 3rd race, and it was the first two two "added money" investments.......

The 3rd race featured I Am American, another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play.  American is trained by Jamie Ness who is a Club member who wins a huge 47% of the time when his starters are in a claiming race for less than $40K.  Today's sprint was for $10K so it was an automatic play.  I was very confident with Javier Castellano in the saddle, as when he rides for Ness they win 50% of the time.  Right out of the gate I Am American was in front and in hand.........

 When they turned for home Castellano asked for his best and I Am American drew off to win as MUCH the best!  Though he was the favorite, the fact that I'd tripled the bet allowed me to collect enough to cover three of the four investments for the day!  In the 4th race I backed Blazen, who was yet another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play.  It was another Patricia Farro trained runner.  She went off at 3/1 and made a move turning for home, but was no match for the top two and was third.  

I passed the fifth, again a great decision because the winner paid over $80 for a $2 bet, and even the HRTV analysts commented how impossible it would have been to predict that winner.  I backed Sunshine Rainbow in the 6th, still another GP H'Capper 40% play.  She was the third horse today from the Patricia Farro stable I liked, and was 3/1 as they approached the gate.  But as they were loading she caused a bit of a stir and the vet scratched her at the gate.  That left only one race on my selection sheet (there were only eight races today), but it was my "BET of the DAY" - Imperial Luck in the 7th.  

Imperial Luck was trained by Kirk Ziadie who fit with this play on three angles - first, he wins at a 41% rate with runners off a 31-to-60 day break and Imperial Luck was returning in 32 days....check!  Second, Ziadie boasts a 41% win rate with his dirt sprinters.....today was a six furlong dirt sprint.....check!  But most impressive was the fact that 63% of the time Ziadie enters a horse in a claiming race for a tag below $40K he WINS!  You can see why Imperial Luck was my BET of the Day.  But wait, there was more!  The only two times in his brief career that Imperial Luck had been sprinting for a tag he had won by eight widening lengths in his maiden breaker and then by ten widening lengths in a $16K non-winners of two lifetime spot.  Imperial Luck broke on top but a longshot flew up the rail to set the pace.  Jockey Jose Lezcano allowed him to take over and positioned his mount just off his hip........

As they turned for home Lezcano shook the reins and it was over.  The farther they went down the lane the wider the margin grew.  Any time owner Frank Calabrese enters a horse, especially in a claiming spot, you know they are a likely winner.  With Ziadie training for him they connect at a 42% rate.  With all those numbers I was surprised that the crowd allowed him to leave the gate at 4/5.  As he coasted past the wire I was grinning from ear to ear :)  I've posted the link to the race replay below the winning photo below......

Click here to watch the video replay

So, for the day - with the late scratch - I had four selections and won two of them.  Note that on both the wins I'd upped the investment, and the two losses I had the minimum.....again, it points out the importance of not only picking the winner, but managing your money.  So for the day I came out close to $25 ahead!  This was especially rewarding as over the weekend I'd only won three times locally, and most of my winter investments will be here.  I am very hopeful that the Gulfstream Handicapper will pave the way to a profitable winter!  Selections for tomorrow are online at my handicapping selection site:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html

Wednesday December 5:  RACE DAY!

Check out today's selections on my website: 

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html

Done handicapping all the races through Friday.....let's get some winners at Gulfstream!

 

 Week 2:  December 5 - 8

As we get ready for the first full week of racing today I've begun to utilize one of my favorite tools - the "Gulfstream Handicapper" authored by local handicapper Jim Mazur.  This guy knows what he's talking about and his products are unique in that they feature statistics that are meet specific.  I had HUGE success this past summer with Mazur's "Del Mar Handicapper" and am hopeful for similar success at Gulfstream.  

There are several "Gulfstream Park 40% Club" plays on Wednesday, but none better than this one:

BET OF THE DAY

Race 7 - Imperial Luck

Imperial Luck enters this two-lifetime sprint off back-to-back 3rd place finishes against open allowance company, but what is most intriguing to me is that fact that trainer Kirk Ziadie scores with an amazing 63% of his starters when they run for a claiming tag below the $40K level at Gulfstream!  MUCH the best today.

To see all my selections for today, visit my selection site:

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html 

Day 2 - Sunday December 2: Sunshine Stakes Day

The good news is that I continued my winning ways by winning BOTH the first and the second of the day.  In the opener, a one-turn mile allowance race, my top selection was Sisterly Love.  She had debuted at Calder with an impressive / big Beyer win and she just looked much the best on the stretchout with anything near what she showed in her debut.  She rated off the pace and drew off like a good thing.

In the second race I put my money on Blazing Whip in a juvenile maiden claimer at the same one-turn mile.  It appeared to me that her connections were "all-in" to win as she was shipping from Laurel, second off a layoff, going a two-turn turf route to a one-turn dirt mile AND dropping out of Maiden Special company.  In a trip much like Sisterly Love's as Blazing Whip sat just off the pace and then opened up through the lane to win.  

 

I missed in the 4th when Playing A Joke failed to make up any ground in the stretch as the 9/5 favorite.  I thought I had a winner in each of my next two races.  In the sixth I had Turbo Cannon who was rated right behind a 45-1 longshot, but then he couldn't get by in the stretch and the winner paid almost $100 for a $2 bet!  Then in the 7th I had Three Hearts in a turf race.  She sat just off the pace and moved easily to the lead in the lane.  She was in front by open lengths and looked home free until the final fifty yards when a 16/1 shot blew by on the wire.....sigh.  

I tripled the bet on Little Drama in the featured Sunshine Stakes after he'd run big in back-to-back graded stakes, including a second in the last.  Today against state-bred company he looked much the best.  Right to the front into the far turn, and then flattened out to be fourth.  And finally, I wasn't a huge fan of Southern Heights in the 9th, but he was a maiden first-time starter for Todd Pletcher with Javier Castellano on board - those guys won at a 40% clip last year, and at 4/1 it was too good to pass up.  He made a threatening move down the backside but was no better than 4th.  

The first full week of racing kicks off on Wednesday, as Gulfstream goes with a full five week schedule from the get-go, unlike last year's December schedule of four days a week until January.  The feature race next Saturday is the first graded stakes of the meet, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl which should include two runners at least from the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

December 1: OPENING DAY

It was a glorious Opening Day on Saturday, December 1.  I have to tell you, it is VERY unusual that I am thrilled to report that for the day I lost only $30 - which today was the difference in ONE photo finish.  But as you read through how the day went, you'll see why I was delighted at day's end. There was a huge crowd on hand and the races were very exciting as we watched from our seats just past the finish line.  As is our annual tradition, Kim and I spent the day together in celebration of the first day of winter racing.  We used to always go as part of our Anniversary because Gulfstream's Opening Day was almost always on our anniversary date; but with the new opening date in December last year and this, we just go because it is so much fun.  Kim's good friend Elaine joined us for most of the day - it was her first racing experience!  

After getting our tickets, programs, and a commeorative pin I filmed a "Welcome To Gulfstream" video for my racing homepage, and then it was time for the racing to begin.  I missed in the opener at Aqueduct and was a close second in the opener at Gulfstream.  Over the next three hours I went a discouraging 0 - for - ELEVEN in my selections and found myself behind by nearly $120.  NOT the way I'd envisioned the beginning of the winter meet!  Finally at almost 3:00 pm I cashed a ticket when Singlet won the featured 6th at Aqueduct in New York, the Garland of Roses Stakes.  I honestly could have cared less that he was the 9/5 second choice and only paid $5.80 - I was just happy to finally cash a ticket :)  

But, I was proud of myself for keeping the faith in my betting all afternoon.  I kept telling myself, even as I became more and more anxious as I spent more and more of my betting funds, that I KNOW my handicapping.  I A-L-W-A-Y-S win at a 30% clip.  If not today, then I'll make it up the next day, or some time soon.  So, I was not really surprised when in my very next pick I won again, this time at Gulfstream when Bernie the Maestro won the Rapid Transit Stakes.  I had doubled the bet and collected nearly $40.....here we go!  What made this a really interesting story was that Bernie was my second choice.  But my top pick scratched and I was happy to bet him - I had in fact written in my analysis that he might be the winner in spite of my initial top selection!  

 

After running second and third, and then a distant 12th at Gulfstream I scored in two of my next three......At the Fair Grounds in New Orleans Secret Heiress scored on the grass with a double investment and then Sea of Laughter was TONS the best over the Tampa grass in their eighth race, another double investment.  Squeezed in between was a second place finish (my fifth of the day!) at Aqueduct.  I was surprised when Silver Screamer did not win the Tiara Stakes at Gulfstream (well beaten 9th as the 6/5 favorite), but was quickly rewarded when I scored back to back Triple Investments.  The first was in a thrilling stretch duel at the Fair Grounds when Fire Alarm was JUST up in time, and then in the Skillful Joy Stakes at Hollywood Park Reneesgotzip rallied to just be up in time, in a rail-skimming ride at 1/5 - that would have been a HUGE upset had she gone down.  

 It was then, as it turned out, time for the race that would spell the difference on the bottom line for the day.  It was the 9th at Gulfstream, the Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes.  i was against the favorite, and I doubled down on Major Marvel.  He went off at 4/1.  As they turned for home he was battling my third choice, Nikki's Sandcastle.  Through the last 16th of a mile I truly thought my nose was consistently in front - watch the video recap at the top of this entry - and on the wire I wasn't confident, but I thought I just might have won.  I WOULD have collected $50 and change, which would have made me a winner for the day, but as you can see in the photo, I JUST missed.....sigh......

Not to be discouraged I came right back to win over the Tampa lawn when Fire Guard went wire to wire, and drew off through the stretch in a powerful finish.  And then it was time for my "BET of the DAY"......On Breeders' Cup weekend, Game On Dude was the 6/5 favorite in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.  A win there would cement his Eclipse award for Horse of the Year.  He likes to run either on the lead, or right off the leader.  But he broke poorly and by the time they got to the first turn he was out of it.  Trainer Bob Baffert kept him in training and he'd worked spectacularly for a rebound effort today.  Baffert also made a jockey change and put Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith on for today's Grade 3 Native Diver.  The second choice, 3-year-old Nonios tried to deny him the rail and the lead, but Smith would have none of that and he led into the stretch.  It looked like he was going to pull away to an impressive score, but Nonios would not give up.  It was an epic struggle to the final 100 yards when Game on Dude put him away.  I suspect Smith had him well measured though as through the final yards he was only hand-riding the Dude.  WHOO HOO!  

I walked out to the rail to watch the final live race at Gulfstream - 6th at 20/1!  Then Kim and I went back to the paddock to film my recap.  As we walked through the simulcast center my next-to-last bet was running at the Fair Grounds.  Contemporary drew clear through the final sixteenth to win at a nice 4/1 - collected over $25!  After filming, on the way to the car I told Kim that I had not added up my totals for the day, but I'd rallied to win nine races and I didn't think I was too far off from breaking even, though I knew I'd finish behind for the day.  My last race was the 9th from Hollywood.  I watched it online a couple of hours later, and if you watch the highlight video at the top of the page, you'll see that Creditcardroulette was DEAD LAST entering the stretch, some eleven lengths behind.  But he was FLYING late and got up to win.  I'd doubled the bet there, and he paid $8.40, and I collected over $40!  

So for the day, after starting 0-for-11, I finished with a 10-for-17 run, including seven wins in my last ten bets.  And my losses for the day were a mere $30.  That photo finish......sigh.... I would have wound up $20 ahead, and pick any of the other close finishes and if I win JUST one more of them, it could easily have been a $100 day!  But still, it was a great day.

See Sunday's Selections here:  http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13_selections.html