Gulfstream 2012-13 Comes To A Close

Thursday/Friday April 4-5

A Fitting Winner In Last Bet Of The Meet

Gulfstream closed for the season - although controversy reigns as to when they will open again, with a scheduled head-to-head battle with Calder looming in July.  It wasn't the best of handicapping streaks, but I did close the meet with multiple wins under stormy skies on Friday.  After the big day on Wednesday I had but a single winner on Thursday.  That came when Midnite Silver scored in the final race on my selection sheet.  

Disappointing after such a "highlight reel" day on Wednesday, but I figured that Friday I'd bounce back with a solid day.  The weather called for storms, but it was simply overcast when I arrived for the first post on Closing Day.  I thought it was curious that the turf races were scheduled to go as planned for the first half of the day, but had been taken off for the latter stages.  How prophetic the racing secretary's office was because around 3:30 pm the skies opened up and it poured!  In what has proved to be a pretty consistent theme, in the opener my top selection was second best as the favorite while my second choice won at a price.  Some things never change :)  I got on the board for the first time in the opener at Keeneland - today was their Opening Day.  Awesome Flower was being sent out first off the claim for Michael Maker, for Ken & Sarah Ramsey with Joel Rosario on board - how familiar is this tune!  But when they hit the far turn she was nowhere to be found.  Never fear though, the Keeneland stretch is at least 62 miles long and it is the graveyard for front-runners typically.  Flying through the lane she was clear with 100 yards to go and drew off easily.  

But what was a bit disturbing came after the race...... I had doubled the bet and she had gone off at 3/5, so I was curious if I was going to get $3.20 or $3.40.  But when the prices were posted for a $2 payoff here's what I saw...... OH MY!  

That has to be wrong, how can you lose money on a $2 bet!  When I asked "my girl" at the windows she was surprised and then mentioned maybe they were posting $1 prices.  I thought it had to be a mistake but after the second race they were still being posted as $1 payoffs.  I kept thinking this has to be causing great consternation with bettors who are creatures of habit, I mean since racing began posting prices in the early 1900s it has ALWAYS been based on a $2 bet!  Finally starting in the 3rd things returned to normal.  RIght after the Keeneland score I hit my first winner of the day on track.  Ron Nicoletti had tabbed the favorite as his "BEST" of the day, but I liked Tiz Beter Run who had top rider Javier Castellano and was going out for top claiming trainer Peter Walder.  Though the horse figured, those two as his human connections towered above all the others.  Romped home on the sloppy going - WHOOO HOOOO!  

Disappointed in three straight, two of which were added-money investments.  Todd Pletcher's Doherty was the odds-on choice in the third and again started slowly, spotting the field about five lengths which cost him when he lost by about one length.  Led into the stretch at Keeneland before the closers ran right by me, third.  Then I tripled the bet on Iroquois Girl in Gulfstream's 4th.  She had started twice and run second to two next-out winners earning big speed figures which laid over the field.  When the betting opened my third choice was being hammered to 8/5 while Iroquois Girl was 4/1.  I was stunned.  Re-examined the Form and thought, no - I'm right.  At post time I was the 7/5 favorite and led turning for home.  Who ran right by me at 4/1 - that's right, my third choice who had taken all the early money.  Wow.  But I bounced back with back-to-back scores.  In Keeneland's 4th it was the first 2-year-old race of the year.  Just as Todd Pletcher 3-year-olds dominate at Gulfstream, and his juveniles run lights out at Saratoga....in the early spring no matter where they surface, but particularly at Keeneland, Wesley Ward 2-year-olds ALWAYS win.  So it was no surprise to see Sweet Emma Rose score at odds-on - and I'd doubled the bet!  :)  

 

I came right back to score over the yielding Gulfstream turf in a marathon event.  Scampering looked to be either the controlling speed, or would sit just off a soft pace scenario and had Castellano riding.  Through the first of three turns she was dueling on the lead, and then Castellano let the longshot go, who opened up by half a dozen.  But down the backside he easily reeled her in, drew clear in the lane, and comfortably held off the late run of the co-favorite.  

 

FOUR WINS from my first eight selections - I'm thinking it will be a good closing day!  But just after the race it began to rain, and then storm (made for interesting trips to and from the grandstand where the only way up is to head out in the open to the twin sets of stairs!).  And like the weather, the handicapping selections turned dark and cloudy.  I rattled off two thirds and two seconds, one most notably an odds-on favorite at Gulfstream that everyone was certain would win - only to be outrun by a Javier Castellano ridden-filly, who was my second choice at a price.....wow!  Finally, in the final live race that I bet and watched I doubled the bet on a Todd Pletcher 3-year-old, ridden by Javier Castellano.  Sweet and Discreet had been second at Belmont in her debut last summer but looked to be much the best today.  I thought as I made the bet that it would only be fitting that I'd cash my last live ticket on a Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club play, and so it was!  She romped home easily!  

I missed on the last couple that I'd bet online to close the meet quietly.  But for the month I'd cashed on over 30% of my selections, and when I totaled my meet totals I'd cashed on over 30%.  So I have to consider Gulfstream a handicapping success.  Check out my highlight videos on the Gulfstream home page to see just how great it was to be here this winter!

http://www.freewebs.com/markim/gp13.html

Closing Week - A GREAT Day at the Races

Wednesday April 3

After a very disappointing week, from a handicapping standpoint, I considered giving the winter an early finish by simply closing the books with the end of March.  But then I thought to myself that I had made myself a promise to handicap every card through the end of the meet and I would do so.  But, I thought to myself, I'll be conservative about my investments.  So I started to handicap for the week I also considered heading out on Wednesday.  When I had finished handicapping the opener and found that I really liked Who's Mary's Daddy with Javier Castellano on the turf.  So I decided I would go for at least a little while.  As I went through the card I wondered if I was forcing the plays because I eventually had a pick in every race!  I was a little worried that when I got to the races I'd regret having so many plays, but told myself to enjoy Gulfstream and the great weather.  Well, my handicap was spot-on and I had a glorious day!  

In the opener Who's Mary's Daddy was the favorite and had the lead all to herself, never being threatened.  She wired the field handily.  That's a great way to start the day!  

 I then went on a three race losing streak.  The second in the sequence my runner was pounded down to 1-5.  No way was she worth that price.....I should have switched to my second choice who's trainer had a $5+ ROI with second time maidens - she won and paid over $30!  When I went to make the bet in the fifth I said to the gal that I typically bet with, "I want a WINNING ticket - push what ever button you have, but I'd like a winning ticket please."  I went against GP Handicapper Ron Nicoletti's "best" and stuck with my pick, Helluva Hunch who was the second choice.  As they turned for home the favorite, Nicoletti's pick, was alone on the lead but at the furlong pole track announcer Larry Colmus called that he'd thrown in the towel!  Helluva Hunch came flying up the rail to score by daylight!  

In the very next race I had my first Gulfstream Park Handicapper 40% Club play in Riverboat Queen, who was being sent out by Todd Pletcher.  I doubled down on her and she tracked the pace to the far turn.  John Velazquez asked for run as they turned for home and she blew by the field!  TWO IN A ROW!  

The 7th was my co-best of the day - and it turned out to be THE best because the other one scratched out of the 8th.  I liked Capitalism At Risk in spite of the fact that five of the six runners wanted the front end, including him.  But I thought he was the speed of the speed and had the ability to sit just off the pace if the race played that way.  He broke best and was in front as they headed into the turn.  As they came out of the turn the speed horse to his inside saved ground and got about a half length in front of him, but he re-rallied and drew off late to WIN!  THREE IN A ROW!  Collected over $30 :)  WHOOO HOOO!  

With the scratch of my top pick in the 8th at Gulfstream I looked at the Aqueduct card and discovered one of my favorite older horses, Smash was the favorite.  I decided to play him.  He was the 3/2 favorite as they got into the gate.  But just as he finished loading the #4 horse broke before the bell.  This startled Smash and apparently the handler in the gate because when the gates sprung open the handler was still clutching the reins!  Smash tossed his head and the jockey nearly flew out of saddle!  We had spotted the field about ten lengths.  That was the last you saw of him on the tv screen.  I thought, "That isn't right!" and knew the #4 would be DQ'd for leaving early.  My hope was that somehow I would be declared a "non-starter".....and sure enough I was!  So I "won" by getting to cash my ticket.  Watch the video to see how bad all this was :)  In the 9th there were two Todd Pletcher horses so I went with the adage of "take the longer price of an uncoupled entry" - should have stuck with the lower price as that Pletcher runner won.  In the finale I liked Why Katherine.  She had already won two of three starts here, and both were at today's one mile distance with identical speed figures.  The only other time she raced at this distance she lost by a neck in a photo and earned a nearly identical speed figure.  Look hard to beat, so I doubled the bet and she was the easiest of winners!  

So for the day, counting the Aqueduct cashed ticket as a "win" :) I was six for ten on the day and had profited over $30.  What a WONDERFUL way to start the week!

 

Sunday March 31

Happy Easter!

A Single Winner - But It's A Longshot!

My week of handicapping woes finally came to a merciful end today when I was only able to win a single race, again.  The only good news was that it was a price play.  To illustrate just how much I've struggled this week, the opener I had the 1/5 favorite who was loose on the lead the entire trip around the track and into the final 200 yards before being caught nearing the wire.  Second.  In the third I had another Gulfstream Handicapper 40% play with a Chad Brown maiden claimer (40%) - second, again at 5/2.  In the 5th I was 4th with the 4/5 favorite.  Ironically in the two races I'd made no bet, the 2nd and the 4th, I had the winner picked but thought it was a "better idea" not to bet.  Wow, I mean really.  I missed in the 6th when my second choice scored and I was 7th.  I got my lone winner in the 8th when on the turf I picked Master Wesley to win.  Top turf rider Jose Lezcano was riding for Dale Romans and the crowd let him get away at 5/1.  Paid $13.80 so I cashed for nearly $40 :)  

But, that was it.....8th at 5/1 in the 9th and then in the featured Secret Grace Stakes I had the 4/5 favorite who was interferred with - ran third but was moved up to second when they took down the winner for bothering me.....little good it did me. :(  For the week I'd cashed on only five horses while on SEVENTEEN occassions I had the favorite (or near-to-it) at odds of less than 2/1 and missed.  Three days left of Gulfstream - I am hoping for a big finish!

Friday March 29

Struggling Still

My handicapping always balances out to 30% or better, so after two days of missing, especially at short prices I was pretty confident that today I'd win more than a couple.....nope, another off-day.  I missed with the even money favorite in the opener when second - seems to be a theme for the week!  Then at 3/2 I was a miserable 7th in the 4th.  FINALLY my second win of the day in the 6th when I picked Island Time to score in a claiming event on the turf.  He was first off the claim for trainer David Fawkes who wins 40% of the time with first-off-the-claim runners.  

But that was it for the day when I missed at 5/2 (7th in the 7th) and then second yet again in the finale, again at a short price of 3/2 with Adventurine - Todd Pletcher & Javier Castellano let me down, AGAIN.....wow.  

The most "interesting" story of the day had to do with the program for Derby Day.  With thirty people joining us and being in Houston all week I did most of the work on the program prior to the trip; then handicapped on the way home.  So my plan was to take the program to FedEx where they have printing (where I have all my racing adventures published) and give them the entire thing digitally in the morning; have them print it and I'd pick it up around 4 pm before all our friends came over for a pre-Derby party.  There I was going to give them their programs and let them pick their horses for the Owner's Competition.  So all went according to plan until the girl rang up the order and said, that will be......

 $457.00  

 And I said, seriously?  She said yes.....so I said, never mind, I'll go home and print it, then bring it back for you to bind it - that's only a couple dollars per book.  What I did not realize was how V-E-R-Y long the printing would take.  I started printing at 11 a.m. and didn't finish until 4 p.m.!  I got back just as the first of our guests arrived (luckily I'd printed the first dozen and had picked them up when I dropped off the last batch before the party).  So it all seemed "no problem to our guests.  I picked up the last of the programs at about 10 pm.  It was a LOT of work today to generate programs for everyone.

Leaving Houston

Thursday March 28

Shutout Today

Not a good day at all as I continue to struggle at Gulfstream this week.  When I made my bets for today I was nearly certain I'd have a bounce-back day as three of the four selections were Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club plays and ALL THREE of them were Todd Pletcher runners.  4th at 2/1 with Unabashed in the 3rd, 3rd at 3/5 with Hierro in the 6th, and 2nd at 2/1 with Raging Mane in the 8th.  Then just for good measure, 4th at 7/2 in the finale with Sunshine Rambler who was 1-for-32 at all other distances and 6-for-18 at today's one mile on the turf.....not today.  Wow....... 

One thing I did work on as we flew home was the Florida Derby Program and handicapping for the big day!

Florida Derby Week Begins!

Wednesday March 27

We Are In Houston!

Monday started Kim's Spring Break so we flew to Houston to visit our oldest son, his wife, and our first grandchild - Cameron.  He is JUST ADORABLE!  We flew out on Monday afternoon and arrived late Monday evening.  Tuesday morning I went to football practice with Jeff - he is an assistant coach at Houston Baptist University where they are starting football for the first time in the history of the school.  

I cannot say enough about how great the coaching staff is - not only as coaches, but as people, the way they talk about my son, and how open & friendly they were to me.  It enjoyed every minute of practice all three days we were there, even if I did have to be up at 4:00 am to be on the field before 6:30 am!  AND it was in the 30's!  After practice the first day I headed back to Jeff & Antoinette's home to see Cameron for the first time.  I know this is my racing journal, but a couple of pics...... First, me explaining to Cameron how to read the Racing Form:  

Well, ok, so I'm really showing him animals on an app that allows the sounds of the animals :)  Here's the best shot of our little man - taking when we were walking around downtown Sugarland:  

And finally a pic of the happy grandparents with "the boy" and one of our grandson with his parents: 

 

While we were in Houston I played the Wednesday and Thursday card online in the morning and watched the results at night in the hotel.  The racing was disappointing, especially compared to the visit.  I ran 4th at 3/5 in the 2nd when the always lethal combination of trainer Michael Maker / owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey / jockey Joel Rosario could not get Christmas Rush to the wire first.  Even worse in the 4th when in a four-horse field my pick, My Big Angel was a miniscule 1/5 and could not hold on.....second.  Sigh...In the feature race of the day, a five-furlong turf sprint, Todd Pletcher's 3-time-winner at the meet, including the Gulfstream Park Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes last out, could not close the deal....second at 4/5.  Missed again at short odds on the turf with Rustler Hustler at 7/5 in the 7th.  FINALLY a winner in the 9th when Big John B - a Todd Pletcher runner was able to score - again at short odds, 1-2....but I was happy just to cash a ticket!  

Missed in the finale at 5/2 when third with another Michael Maker/Ramsey/Rosario runner.  Hoping for better tomorrow!

Disappointing Weekend

Friday March 22 / Saturday March 23 / Sunday March 24

After two BIG days of winning 42% of my selections the pendulum of winners dramatically swung back the other way.  Friday was just THE WORST.....not that my selections were "off" so much, but finding the winner's circle turned out to be impossible.......and what was the most frustrating was that six of the seven were Gulfstream Handicapper 40% Club selections, even more discouraging FIVE of the six were Todd Pletcher-trained.  What are the odds that a near 40% trainer would miss on five runners on the same day?  Really, REALLY frustrating.  I tried to accept the outcome of the day by consoling myself that I was not the only one or even in the minority in picking the horses (two lost at 4/5, four lost at 3/1, and the other at 4/1), and by the fact that I'd won 12-of-28 over the past two days.....so over the three day span I was still 12-for-35, which is over 33%.  

Saturday, with our daughter Julie visiting she and Kim went to the beach for several hours, so I went to the races for a few races.  Because the meet is winding down I cashed in my points for my Gulfstream Advantage Card and got enough money to buy myself a new Gulfstream polo shirt.

I was going to see three races live before making bets for the rest of the day, and one of the races was my "best" of the day.  My first pick was in the second race where I really thought the #4 horse was the most likely winner, but there was a Todd Pletcher runner who'd be a price and the trainer of the #4, who was certain to be the favorite was 0-for-20 on the meet.  I was delighted that Pletcher's horse was 8/1 at post time.  I considered an exacta saver but knew that nearly never works for me.  Of course.....the 0-for trainer came through at 4/5 and Pletcher's horse, my pick was second --> the exacta paid a huge $45.  I was thinking of how just a $5 exacta would have netted over $100, but no, not for me.  Sigh..... in the next race I was a late running second, again.  And then came my "BEST" of the day.  Carried Interest had been the heavy favorite in her last when coming off a layoff and broken behind the field.  That day she dueled on the lead and was caught late.  Today the connections switched to the meet's leading rider Javier Castellano and she had a sharp workout.  Dueled with a longshot to the top of the stretch, but instead of drawing clear it was a stretch duel and she gave way in the final strides at 1-9 odds.  Wow, how bad is it when I can't win with a 1-9 favorite?  Still, I was encouraged about my selections for the remainder of the day.  I had two picks at Santa Anita and one at Aqueduct.  The New York horse was one of my old favorites, Writingonthewall, and he delivered at 4/5.  Both California horses lost......In my first Gulfstream pick after I'd left Street Secret rallied from the back of the pack in an exciting turf race to score at better than 5/2 with a triple bet ..... got back nearly $60 and I thought I was on my way.  But the best I could do out of four race was two thirds, both at short odds.

Finally on Sunday I still thought I had good selections and my "BEST" of the day was the return of Lady of Shamrock on the Santa Anita turf in the Grade 2 Santa Ana Stakes.  Most of my picks at Gulfstream I had top rider Javier Castellano, so I was certain I would have multiple winners on the day!  In the first two races I had the 9/5 and 3/5 favorites - no, second in both.  Sigh...... The third race I had a price play at 10/1 in the program.  Joanie's Image went off at a much lower price at 7/2 and WON!  HORRAY!  I got back nearly $15 and I thought, again, here we go!  The next was my best of the day at Gulfstream.  Brandys Secret was the lone speed on the turf and had Javier Castellano to ration her speed.  Right to the front and the opening quarter for the 8 1/2 furlongs was a bit quick at :22.4.  I knew Castellano would slow her down, she wasn't really pressured....but the half was in a sizzling :45 and change.  Now she HAD to be given a break - nope, he continued to let her run and she stopped the teletimer in an absurd 1:08 and change - even Grade 1 stakes horses who were front runners would cave under those fractions.  Sure enough, weakened in the final 16th and was third.  Really?  Castellano had failed to time the late runs in both the opening races and now couldn't win on the front end.  I am NOT having a good day.  In the next race I was second with a Todd Pletcher horse at 2/1.  Then in the 9th it was a maiden race for sophomore fillies and I had a $775K Bill Mott horse.  Profitezia was sent off at a nice 4/1 and was loose on the lead going 8 1/2 furlongs.  The pressers came to her on the turf but opened up and was four clear heading for home and the alternate finish line through the short stretch run.  But a sixteenth out you could see that she simply stopped running.  Inhaled by a closer and I was second again.  WOW.  I won the finale when Wicked Tune was simply the fastest front runner in a turf sprint and ran away from the field.  Like the last race she started getting tired, but - thankfully - had enough to hold on.  Got back nearly $15.  And in the biggest disappointment of the weekend Lady of Shamrock closed belatedly to be SECOND, again.  She didn't have that devastating turn of foot today like I'd come to expect.  For the day I ended up a 2-for-8.  And after such a great start to the week I finished with 16 wins from 53 selections - still 30% right on the nose, but such a disappointing way to end the week :(

BUT....it is now finally Florida Derby Week!  And we are on our way to see our grandson Cameron in Houston on Monday!